March 2003 Archives

DIYARBAKIR -- I'm reading reports that the U.S. assault is taking a week's pause to toughen up the supply lines to the front units as they prepare to hit Baghdad. Also, everything is bogged down thanks to problems with the Fedayeen militia and other harassing Iraqi units, that Iraqi resistance is tougher than Rumsfeld & Co. expected. Maybe these reports are true, maybe they're disinformation from the Americans in preparation of a lightning assault.

I do know this, however. In Diyarbakir, the IV Press Corps has ground to a halt.

This place is crawling with journos, all looking for the same thing: A way in. Until that can be procured, Diyarbakir has turned into a press town in a wartime economy. Tempers are flaring. An italian camera-woman berated the poor desk clerk at my hotel yesterday morning because something (I'm not sure what) wasn't cleaned in the morning.

"And I asked for it to be cleaned this morning and it wasn't!" she snapped, jabbing her finger at the clerk like it was a stiletto.

But luckily, J. and I caught up with Beth and Rita again, and this time, the conversation was much more pleasant. I also discovered that since it looks like we may be here for a few days, I need to get a Diyarbakir press credential. I had to do this last year, but the region was still under special military rule. This time, I wasn't planning on staying more than a day and I wasn't going to be working, so I didn't feel there was a need. Au contraire! If we want to travel around the region south of here, which, aside from the northern half of Kuwait, may be one of the most militarized places on the planet, we need those cards. So now, I'm waiting on a letter to be faxed from a U.S. Embassy to my hotel so I can present it along with my other bona fides. Bother.

Thus, this will be but a short update. We'll be wandering around the Old City today, although not taking pictures. Without the press cred, there's a good chance a cop will see us and make trouble for us. While it may seem cowardly, I don't want to risk that. It would be pretty stupid to have the Back to Iraq mission end early for a reason like that. Once the credentials are secured, however, we should be OK. Unfortunately, the waiting is the hardest part.

DIYARBAKIR -- Ah, Diyarbakir. This is an ancient city, almost 4,000 years old, one of the oldest on the planet. Last time I was here, the oppression stuck to my skin like humidity in a rain forest. Armored personnel carriers roamed the streets and the cops beat the hell out of a crowd of Kurds when they came to a cemetery hoping to memorialize a democracy martyr's death from the early 1990s.

This time, however, the APCs were parked off the streets. There is a notable lack of gendarmes, Turkey's internal security police and the primary force responsible for keeping order in the southeast for the last 15 years. The sidewalks are cracked but bustling. Merchandise -- whole fish, shoes, scarves and fabrics, toys and sweets -- spill out onto the sidewalks, forcing older women in headscarves and traditional dress, men in kafiyehs and the Kurds' trademarked baggy trousers to compete for walking space with teenagers in Nike sweatshirts and young men in leather jackets trying to look tough. Or they could take their chances in the street with the taxis, zooming madly, beeping their horns in staccato blips as warnings. The cacophony is thrilling, exhilarating, and even now as I sit in my hotel room, I can hear the merchants in the bazaar calling out, the horns, the traffic, snippets of conversation that echo up the alley walls and slip into my room.

Turkey lifted the emergency rule a few months ago and the difference, to me, is dramatic. This is a city that feels newly alive.

But not so to some of the younger Kurds. Emre, a 17-year-old English student, found me as I was trying to reach the KDP's Damascus office. Slight, with delicate features and a mustache that was shyly announcing itself, he was interested in my satellite phone. As we struck up a conversation, he took to a caravansarai -- a trading post built 500 years ago by the Seljuk Turks -- that now served as a tea garden. It also served as a mini-bazaar, with merchants in each corner running shops selling carpets, silver-work, scarves, kafiyehs and even old Iranian rials.

Sitting down among intricately knotted carpets exploding with color -- note to self: come back and ship one of these home when you come back through -- that hung from the walls and ceiling supports, Emre, J., myself and Emre's friend, Necati, sat down to some of the ubiquitous tea.

He was against the war, of course -- basically everyone in Turkey, 94 percent, is against the war -- but I asked him if things were better now that emergency rule had been lifted. He said it was only a little better. I asked him if the Turks were justified in worrying about its own Kurds attempting to break off and dash for independence if the Iraqi Kurds over the border attained their own country.

"Let me answer your question with a question," he said. "In America, there are, what, 50 states? Does the black man want his own nation? Does the brown man?"

I said no.

"And why is that?"

J. spoke up. "Because they don't have to. They are happy being Americans."

Emre said that was his point. "If I can speak my own language, learn Kurdish in school, listen to Kurdish music and have the same democratic rights as the people in the west [of Turkey], why would I need my own country? We want the same economic development as in the west, too, we want to be as rich as they are. If we had all this, why would Turkey's Kurds need their own country?

"But if we can't have that," he warned. "Yes, I want my own country. Yes, I will want a military to protect myself."

Technical notes
I've since found out that some donors have been getting the B2I-Dispatch hours after it's gone up on the Web site, which is exactly backward from the way it's supposed to be. I'm truly sorry and I apologize. I will see what I can do about that. I've also discovered that I grossly overestimated the bandwidth available on the sat-phone. Which means there may not be many pictures until I get back. I haven't taken many, however, since my focus has been on traveling, but perhaps Diyarbakir would be of interest to people.

Also, I read every comment that people make on this site, as well as all emails. However, because of time, bandwidth and other considerations, I may not be able to respond to everyone. Please don't take it personally. I really, really appreciate everyone taking the time to write, and your notes of support keep me excited about all of this.

As for donations, I also don't often have time to thank you all personally, but I have been forwarding your email addresses (as per PayPal) to Mike for adding to the list, which he is doing. So while you might not get a personal thank-you note, you are being put on the list. And allow me now to thank you all very much for your continued support.

ANKARA -- Today started early: 5 a.m., when the call to prayer from the nearby mosque got cranked up. Just as well, as J. and I needed to get to the Syrian Embassy by 8:30 a.m.

After a quick breakfast, we headed over. A stop at the bank first, where I paid the $100 fee for the visa -- and the teller creepily asked me if I was going to northern Iraq. Then we stood online outside the Embassy with the many travel agents dropping off packets of their clients' passports.

While waiting, we met Rita and Beth, two obviously in-a-hurry journalists. Beth is American and Rita is Canadian. She chatted us up while Beth fretted about getting the proper forms to fill out. They're trying to get into northern Iraq, too.

"You guys journalists?" asked Rita, sotto voce, as we waited in front of the Embassy and staffers paced back and forth nearby.

"What makes you say that?" I answered and glanced meaningfully over my shoulder.

"We're on a tour," J. added.

Rita got the hint and shut up.

At the window, the woman taking our forms quizzed me about my profession. I told her I was a teacher and a writer. (Both true.)

"What kind of writer?" she pressed. "Journalist?"

Last time I went into Syria, I found it useful not to advertise my status as a journalist, as that requires a press visa and takes much longer. I didn't want to take any chances on delays.

"No, short stories," I fibbed. "Fiction." (Also true, just nothing published, mainly because they suck.)

She nodded, obviously not believing me, but unwilling to make an issue of it. She told me to come back at 1:30.

Up the street, at the corner, Beth joined us. She's a reporter for U.S. News and World Report, while Rita is a freelance photographer. Beth and I exchanged gossip, and I found out that Rita has a contact on the Syrian/Iraqi Kurdistan border who will take her party across for $1,000 per person. I wondered aloud if J. and I could get in on that action. Beth didn't know and worried that Rita's smuggler wouldn't like it if she showed up with two extra guys. I'm skeptical about this, since these guys are rarely in business to limit their income.

Beth asked me who I was with and I told her Back to Iraq.com, that I was an independent journalist, had been to Iraqi Kurdistan last year and that I am one of the Web's first war reporters. Her demeanor immediately changed and the patronizing began.

"Back to Iraq.com!" she exclaimed in mock enthusiasm. "Neat!"

It's an attitude I'm used to from "real" journalists, one that I can usually defuse by explaining my vision and my 13 years of experience and my stints at the Associated Press and the New York Daily News. But today I didn't feel like swapping resumes. I just smiled and said, "Yeah, actually. It is."

After a quick spin back to the hotel and a stop to the Internet cafe down the street, we picked up my visa. No problem, as they say here. We ran into Beth and her crew again. This time she was nicer and invited us to share the ride to Diyarbakir with them. Now there was a problem. The car had to fit five people (and their gear) in a space the size of a Ford Festiva. Also, we had to be ready in 10 minutes, Beth said. That was impossible for us, so we told them we'd fly tomorrow and catch up with them in that ancient Kurdish city.

We leave at 10 a.m. Saturday for Diyarbakir and then sprint for the border at Nusaybin/Qamishli. Getting into Syria should be no problem now that I have the visa, but the border with Iraqi Kurdistan is closed, a woman in the Kurdistan Democratic Party's Ankara office told me. J. and I are hoping we can hook up with Beth and Rita's friend who can get us across. Thankfully, the KDP said we would be welcome -- if we can get across the border. I have talked J. out of a commando-style raid across the Tigris in an inflatable raft -- madness -- and instead we'll try throwing some Yankee greenbacks around. That usually helps solve problems.

If things go very well, we could be in Duhok -- or possibly even Erbil -- by tomorrow night.

Parting thought

One of the problems of this endeavor is that I've lost that bird's-eye view of what's going on. I watch BBC in my hotel room and check the Web at the Internet cafe, but with limited access, I feel like I'm missing some major context. Beth told me that a Yemeni arrested in Somalia was briefly thought to be Osama bin Laden, but that turned out to be false. (This was why she was now looking to get into northern Iraq; she needed a new story.) I'd heard nothing about this at all! Turns out this broke yesterday, she said, while I was traveling. Very frustrating. My view has shrunk from a wide-angle lens to something resembling looking through the wrong end of a telescope.

Greetings from Turkey, all. A brief note about donations: I will not be able to reply personally to those sending them in. However, I am forwarding the PayPal notifications to Mike Hudack, who is adding the email addresses to the Back2Iraq-Dispatch listserv, so you will be gaining all the benefits of donating. I also am not updating the donor list until I get back. It's just too much work on a slow line. You will be recognized later, if you wish. I hope you all understand.

Thanks very much for continuing to donate! The funds will come in very handy when I'm back in Turkey and I will have access to them then.

More updates later...

[Editor's Note: When I post these dispatches from Christopher I will correct any obvious spelling mistakes, but I will not alter the content in any way, nor change the grammar. I will keep my edits to a minimum, and after this I will not be commenting.
Michael]

ANKARA -- After almost 14 hours of traveling, I've landed in Ankara, ahead of schedule. It's been a mad dash to Turkey's capital, sort of like what the 3rd Infantry Division is trying to do regarding Baghdad, but without the bullets.

Flying into Ankara is a weird experience. From the air, it looks a little like a poorly planned SimCity 3000 creation, with great swaths of undeveloped land, broad freeways and masses of residential areas with identical apartment buildings and similar-looking single-story houses. This
isn't surprising, really. Like Washington, D.C., it's pretty much a made up city. When Ataturk chose Ankara as the capital of the newly-born Turkish Republic, the town was a sleepy, dusty village of about 20,000. He chose it because a) it was far away from the old capital of Istanbul and connotations of the old Ottoman Empire, and b) it couldn't be easily threatened by Western gunboats as Istanbul can be.

Ankara, in late March, is also cold. It's still winter here, and I thought it would be spring weather. I didn't pack for this, so I had to buy a new coat today. Luckily the Turkish Lira is weaker than the peso, so a very nice winter coat cost me the equivalent of $30.

My old friend Aykut is here, too, and the reunion has been good if a little bittersweet. Turkey's tourism business has been bad -- non-existent, practically -- as shown by the fact that none of my flights have been anywhere near full. He's a professional tour guide and his wife is a school teacher, two positions that don't pay that well. Business has been off since last year when the war drums began tuning up, and his household is in dire straits.

We went for coffee at a small cafe in the neighborhood where we met an old friend of his, a journalist I'll call Mehmet, as I don't want to reveal his real name. He's an old hand in Kurdistan, having been there nine or 10 times, and he knows the former Iranian ambassador to Ankara. He's going to try to get us the process for a visa into Tehran stepped up, which would cut days off our trip into Kurdistan. The alternative is to rely on the good nature of Turkish troops -- usually a losing proposition -- around Silopi to let us through into Iraq, or go through Syria, which I've heard is also problematic but doable with the proper incentives. (Draw your own conclusions.) A trip to Damascus might be required.

Mehmet covers the diplomatic business of Ankara and the United States and Turkey are apparently in negotiations over the role of the Turkish military in northern Iraq. The Turks are trying to hold out for Turkish command, while the Americans are insisting on an allied command structure. How the negotiations go will determine how the Turks enter Iraqi Kurdistan -- the hard way or the easy way. If it's the hard way, with the Turks under their own command, the KDP, based in Kurdish nationalism and no friend of the Turks, will resist with guns and guerilla tactics, spawning a war within a war. If they go in under U.S. command -- the Turks will never accept a British commander over their forces; too many bad memories of Gallipoli and the Sykes-Picot Agreement -- it will go easier, and the Kurds will likely behave themselves and not make a dash for Kirkuk or Mosul with their respective oil fields.

Turkey's top military man, Gen. Himli Ozkok, however, said yesterday that the Turks won't go further into Iraqi Kurdistan without a U.S. presence, which is good news. And BBC is reporting that 1,000 paratroopers of the 173rd are dropping into the region, perhaps as a backup for the PUK's push against Ansar al-Islam on the Iranian border.

But the region is rife with conspiracy theories. Aykut said that if I went out and asked the people on the street, half would say the United States committed 9/11 so it could go after Iraq. (Interestingly, almost half of Americans -- 45 percent -- believe Saddam was personally behind 9/11.) Turkey is also rippling with an anti-Bush sentiment. Turks like Americans and sometimes, even America. But more than 90 percent oppose this war and a similar percentage absolutely loathe George W. Bush. Aykut sheepishly admitted he hoped the war would go badly so Bush would lose in 2004. I made him feel bad when I reminded him that many Iraqis and Americans would die if it went too badly.

Mehmet also said that the Turks, Iranians and Syrians were coming to an "understanding" regarding Iraqi Kurdistan. The upshot is that Iran and Syria would get Turkey's back if it moved on the Kurdish enclave in defiance of America's wishes. Iran would even send in its own troops, he said, if the Turks invaded unilaterally. I have no idea if this is true, but Stratfor had something on this not too long ago claiming the exact same thing. Either conspiracy theories are contagious or perhaps there's something to this rumor. Time will tell.

Finally met J., my would-be traveling companion on this adventure. He's a former marine from the first Gulf War, a photographer and a paramedic. All of which could come in quite handy. Plus, he has cool toys: night vision goggles. He has the open face of a California guy, although he was born in New Jersey. He seems a level-headed chap, and promised he wouldn't decide to ditch me if the Iraqis carted me away. He's going to be the liaison with any U.S. forces we come across and will be doing some photography, once I show him how to work the digital camera.

Tomorrow, the Syrians.

Christopher is traveling for the rest of the week. He was in Zurich last night, and is on his way to Ankara. I should hear something from him by this weekend and I'll post it as soon as I know something.
Michael

By the way, everyone. We broke $10,000 yesterday... Many, many thanks to all of you. There's no way this would have happened without those members of the real "Coalition of the Willing" (formerly "Angel Investors") to the right. Everyone on that list deserves every reader's thanks. And they definitely have mine.

Also, George over at Warblogging deserves a big thanks for helping host this site, and helping get tons of bandwidth

My brother, Michael, will also deserve a big hand, since he's going to be the one actually pushing the button to publish this blog while I'm in-country. The sat-phone is pretty narrow bandwidth, so I'll email out the the dispatches on the donors' listserv I've set up and later in the day, Michael will copy and paste the day's email(s) into blog entries. (I'd link to his site, but he's serving it on an iMac out of his home. I don't think his ISP would appreciate the attention.)

Friends, family and others too many to mention here: You have my gratitude. This could never have happened without their support and encouragement.

And now, the fear sets in. Tomorrow will be a busy day. I'll likely not blog until Friday when I get to Ankara and give an update, but I'll do what I can.

Tickets are purchased, gear is tested (mostly), packing is commencing and everything is coming together. I've not posted much these past few days because of the overwhelming number of loose ends to tie up. Plus, at the moment, I don't really know any more than what's on CNN et al. What's the point of regurgitating? Starting this week however, the real purpose of Back to Iraq comes into view, as this becomes a much more heavily reported site instead of one based on analysis and commentary. (That will still be there, but in much smaller portions.)

I've been doing a fair number of interviews, too, as various media members want to know my story. Often they ask me why I'm doing this, what do I expect or hope to get out of this, am I crazy, etc. Well, I'm probably crazy, yes, but what I'm hoping to get out of this is some respect for the Web (and blogs) as a serious medium for independents. To all the journalism professors who say blogs aren't "real" journalism, I say, "I don't see you getting out of your tenured chair and putting your butt in the middle of Kurdistan to report on what's happening." To those who say, "You've got no editor," I reply, "My readers are my editors." To those who complain, "You're biased, you offer nothing but op-eds," I reply, "I am biased, but at least you know where I'm coming from. And just wait until next week when my butt is in Kurdistan."

There have been a couple of stories of journalism being pulled away from its mission by corporate masters. While these are no means the rule, they are troubling.

• Kevin Sites was shut down. While I wasn't always impressed with his work, he did take some good photographs. CNN's decision to shut him down is puzzling, considering he was saying nothing that would annoy his employers.
• The BBC's War Diaries, while interesting, seem a bit like an afterthought. And no doubt they are. The BBC reporters work hard.
• And finally, Paul Krugman has reported in his column that Clear Channel, operator of approximately 1,225 radio stations, 39 television stations and which has equity interest in more than 240 radio stations, has been organizing pro-war rallies around the country.

As Krugman says,

the company's top management has a history with George W. Bush. The vice chairman of Clear Channel is Tom Hicks, whose name may be familiar to readers of this column. When Mr. Bush was governor of Texas, Mr. Hicks was chairman of the University of Texas Investment Management Company, called Utimco, and Clear Channel's chairman, Lowry Mays, was on its board. Under Mr. Hicks, Utimco placed much of the university's endowment under the management of companies with strong Republican Party or Bush family ties. In 1998 Mr. Hicks purchased the Texas Rangers in a deal that made Mr. Bush a multimillionaire.

It should also be noted that Clear Channel is a major donor to the Republican party. Since 1997, the chairman and CEO, Lowry Mays, according to FEC records, has personally given $11,250, almost all to Republican candidates. (The exception is Rep. Charles Gonzales of the 20th District.)

Krugman's point is partially that Clear Channel is doing a favor for George W. Bush, but his main point is that major corporations -- including media companies -- are merging with the government "into one big 'us.'" The danger of this should be obvious.

Anyway, there's so much going on now. It's impossible to know the whole story of this war. But that's OK, I've come to realize. It's more important to tell a few stories of the war rather than the story of the war. That will have to be written later. And when the narrative is told, the media will have major role -- mainstream, freelance and independent alike. And perhaps someone will look back and say, "The blogosphere stepped up to the plate. With commentary and analysis, its members provided a tonic for much of the mainstream media's excesses. Others provided a meta-analysis, providing their readers with as much of a bird's eye view of the coverage as possible. And for the first time, they sent one of their own to war."

The big story today is the capture of U.S. soldiers by Iraqi troops around an Nasiriya. Al Jazeera and Iraqi TV showed footage of the soldiers -- as well as bodies said to be soldiers. Two of the troops iD'ed their unit at the 507th Maintenance. A woman was among those captured.

In a separate incident, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld acknowledged that some soldiers were missing, but said the number was "fewer than 10." (Stratfor reports that the number is actually 12, and that the soldiers took a wrong turn and are now lost.)

Regarding the American captives, on Meet the Press today, Rumsfeld said the Iraqis had an obligation, under the Geneva Conventions, to respect the rights of any POWs. ""It's illegal to do things to POWs that are humiliating to those prisoners," he said.

Under Article 3 of the Conventions, each warring party "shall be bound to apply, as a minimum, the following provisions:

Persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria.

To this end, the following acts are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect to the above-mentioned persons:

1. Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
2. Taking of hostages;
3. Outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
4. The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgment pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as indispensable by civilized peoples.

"The United States of course avoids showing prisoners of war," Rumsfeld said. "We have thousands of Iraqi prisoners that are in POW camps ... but we avoid showing photographs of them." Hm. While I agree that Iraq should follow the letter and spirit of the Conventions, the U.S. has been less than thorough in keeping true to these protocols itself, weakening its case. The prisoners at Camp X-Ray in Guantanamo Bay have been held in a legal limbo for months now. Some have been shipped to other countries that employ horrific interrogation methods. Human Rights Watch has urged the Bush Administration to determine the detainees' status and then launch criminal prosecution "where credible evidence exists." Indefinite detention is not legal under the Conventions, despite President Bush's claim to be upholding the "principles" of the Third Convention. As the report from HRW said:

This shortsighted transgression sets a dangerous precedent that could come back to haunt U.S. and allied service-members who are captured by enemy forces in this or future wars. Washington's refusal to treat the detainees as POWs is perplexing because it would in no way inhibit legitimate U.S. efforts to interrogate or prosecute people who have participated in terrorist acts.

In other news, Iraqi resistance is stiffening, as the battle for Basra rages on. Col. Khaled al-Hashemi, Iraqi commander of the 51st Mechanized Division near that city, said March 23 that his division, reported earlier to have surrendered, would continue to fight against U.S. and British forces. "I am with my men in Basra; we continue to defend the people and riches" of the town, Al-Hashemi said. [Stratfor]

Also: "Combat in An Nasiriyah in southeastern Iraq has extended to the cities of Samava, Bataha and Sot al-Sheikh and Hour in the southern province of An Najaf. According to reports released by military sources inside Iraq listening to allied radio, U.S. and British forces have called for reinforcements, more armament, artillery and helicopter gun-ships."

U.S. Special Forces are flying into Iraqi Kurdistan to be deployed around the town of Halabja, according to senior PUK officials. (Likely a backup for actions against Ansar al-Islam. KDP peshmergas have allegedly fought off a small Iraqi attack near Tepe Garus, about 15 kilometers from Arbil. [ibid.]

Hello Christopher,

Thanks for writing and thanks for your safety wishes. I got back to Erbil city this morning because it was no longer bearable or logical to stay in that village especially after we noticed the very slow pace of the war! anyhow we are still taking precautions.

I hope you will make it to Iraq soon but please take care of yourself as its a real dangerous situation here and completely unpredictable! maybe I will see you in Iraq and hope I can be of help.

You too keep safe,
djoy

More supplies to buy today (Gotta restock the first aid kit.) Then tomorrow and Tuesday I'll be tying up loose ends. Still looking at a Wednesday departure. I'm only waiting on PayPal funds to clear and the laptop to arrive.

Ivan Watson, an NPR reporter in Halabja, the town best known for the 1988 chemical attacks near the Iranian border, reports that last night the Islamist group Ansar al-Islam came under attack from American cruise missiles and bombing. This morning, Ansar apparently struck back with a suicide car bomb in Halabja that killed three peshmergas and injured nine others. (Background on Ansar here and here.)

Watson described the car bomb in Halabja as a "deadly retaliatory attack." Ansar has been accused of having ties to al Qa'ida, and the Bush administration has said its presence in Iraq proves ties between Baghdad and Osama bin Ladin. While intriguing, the ties have never been proved conclusively.

Ansar has been waging a war against PUK leadership, and has assassinated several leading PUK figures in the past few months. While I was interviewing PUK Interior Minister Faraidoon Abdul Qisadir last summer in Suleimaniya, he showed me a note -- in Kurdish or Arabic, I'm not sure -- that he said proved the group was getting funding from Baghdad. He wouldn't let me make a copy of the note so I could get it independently translated, however, so there's no way I could have verified its content.

During the meeting, an aide brought him another note that he said indicated a car bomb, likely headed for my hotel, had exploded on a hill outside Suleimaniya. Again, I was unable to verify this, but I did see a smoke plume rising from a hill outside the city after the interview. I had been in Halabja just the day before and Qisadir speculated that Ansar agents had seen me.

The gear is acquired! Sat-phone will be coming tomorrow and new laptop should be coming Monday or Tuesday. GPS receiver is in hand, and my old trusty digital camera is waiting to ship out.

I'll be getting a ticket to Istanbul next week, perhaps as soon as Wednesday. From there, I'll meet up with a friend in Ankara and we'll head to the Syrian border. After that, Iraqi Kurdistan. I hope to be in country by next weekend.

I was hoping for $10,000 at a minimum, but the big dose of funding I was hoping for from a major university has not come through, and I don't think I can wait anymore. So I'm going to cut the trip a little short (probably two weeks in Iraq as opposed to a month) and go with what I've got.

Donations are still most welcome, of course! Every little bit helps, and I really, really appreciate everyone's support. If people want to keep donating, I can still access the funds while in Turkey. After that, however, I'll be using the cash reserves.

By the time I get there, Iraqi Kurdistan could be Turkish-occupied, a humanitarian disaster or a cheering land of happy Kurds. We'll see. It's a hideously complicated place, and it will be a good litmus test for America's intentions.

Well, this is just great. Reuters is reporting that Turkish foreign minister (and previous prime minister) Abdullah Gul said that Turkish troops will soon be moving into Iraqi Kurdistan "within the next few hours." [BBC]

Jonny Dymond of BBC says Turkey has up to 10,000 troops are sitting on the border waiting to move into Iraqi Kurdistan.

[UPDATE 6:57 p.m. EST: BBC is reporting that Turks have already crossed the borders.]

This is slap to the United States, which has "cautioned" the Turks not to move into the region, but the negotiations between Turkey and the United States possibly grew so bitter that Turkey feels it now doesn't trust the United States to watch out for its interests in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Qubad Jalal Talabani, the deputy representative of the PUK in Washington, appeared on BBC to explain his party's viewpoint.

"It is very worrying for my people," he said. "We believe that Turkish intervention in Iraqi Kurdistan is a recipe for disaster."

He worried about the precedent it might set, and expressed concern that Iran or Syria might also decide to move troops into the region to protect their own interests. (Syria and Iran have their own restless Kurdish populations.)

Kurds have faced this threat for some time now, and many Kurds have pledged to fight the Turks. In an email sent to me some days ago from Arbil, Karzan Aziz, a friend of mine, said, "I do believe that Turkey will face problems if [it] invaded Kurdistan,�as I have met so many people [who] all repeat the same thing: 'As we�have been fighting against Saddam from many decades, we are ready to�fight Turkey some more other decades.'"

Turkey says its goal is to prevent an influx of refugees and "terrorist activities," according to Gul.

[ASIDE: BBC also is reporting that Turkey has finally agreed to open up its airspace. Since this has flipped back and forth all day, I'll believe this when F-16s fly over Incirlik.]

But Talabani said this is not needed. "The displacement of the population at the moment is not heading toward the mountainous borders," he said. "They're dispersing among their families in the nearby towns and villages."

"The Kurdish people are actually concerned that the Turkish military intervention is not to prevent an influx of refugees into Turkey, but it is in effect an attempt to strangle Kurdish aspirations," he added.

Many Kurds feel this is the first step toward Turkish attempts to annex territory. (It has long coveted the oil-fields around Kirkuk and Mosul.)

"We understand the allied forces will probably try to leave our region as quickly as possibly," Talabani said. "But I'm not sure the same can be said for our neighbors."

Thursday's vote in the Turkish Parliament to allow U.S. planes access to Turkey's airspace is on hold in the face of U.S. opposition to Turkey sending troops into Iraqi Kurdistan. [CNN] So, still no northern front.

And listening to CNN, MSNBC et al. would lead one to believe that victory is at hand... That may be so but Kos has a good run-down on troubling reports from Reuters that things are not going as smoothly as the networks and 24-hour news channels might lead people to believe.

The toughest battles are yet to come. Stratfor lists the bridges across the Euphrates and the city of Basra as the real tests of Iraqi resistance. If the Iraqis don't attempt to blow the bridge at al-Nasiriyah or offer only token resistance in Basra, "then the will of the Iraqi forces to fight has indeed collapsed." [Stratfor] It is, as yet, too early to tell if that is the case.

Umm Qasr is still not 100 percent in the control of the British [Reuters], but Ha'aretz and AP are reporting that U.S. marines will soon be in control.

[UPDATE: 12:26 PM EST, AP reports that U.S. Marines of the 15th MEU, under British command, have taken Umm Qasr. Control allows access to a port for mat�riel and humanitarian supplies.]

At 1734 GMT, Al Jazeera reported bombings in the northern oil city of Mosul.

At 1730 GMT, another Marine from the 1st MEU was KIA, with another injured, U.S. defense officials confirmed. The Marines took fire during an operation near Rumaila.

It seems "A-Day," the start of "shock and awe" is beginning. And just as a side comment, I was listening to NPR this morning and the announcers sounds almost disappointed that they had not seen the "shock and awe" campaign yet. Perhaps I'm just being snippy, though.

If this is the beginning of shock and awe, it means the Pentagon has given up on the smaller hits designed to sow confusion in the Iraqi leadership and that the full scale bombardment has begun. The Pentagon was likely hoping to avoid this by punching hard but backing off, and seeing if they could either get the Iraqis to topple Saddam in a matter of days or they were trying to smoke out the leadership.

Sat-phone and rugged laptop en route. Will depart for Ankara next week, probably Wednesday or Thursday. Will try to hook up with other photographer who, like me, is looking to get into Iraqi Kurdistan. Let's hope all goes well...

NEW YORK -- Today has been a busy day for a lot of people, obviously.

2003 GMT - White House officials said March 20 that the Bush administration will freeze the financial assets of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

1943 GMT - Though the determination is not yet final, U.S. analysts reportedly have concluded that the person who appeared on Iraqi television after initial U.S. strikes, and who subsequently appeared meeting with senior Iraqi officials, is Saddam Hussein.

1920 GMT - Kuwait's stock exchange closed for an indefinite period March 20, hours after a U.S.-led war against Iraq started. "This decision has been taken to protect traders from any direct negative repercussions on the market and also to safeguard against any rumors, which usually increase in such extraordinary circumstances," according to the Kuwait Stock Exchange. The bourse is the second-largest in the Arab world.

1855 GMT - The United States will ask all foreign nations to break links with Iraqi officials, and ask Iraqi embassies to close, in anticipation of the fall of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime, AFP reports. U.S. embassies will be instructed to ask their host countries to declare that they no longer recognize Hussein's regime. The United Nations will be asked to make a similar request. One official said, "This may not go out until the government in Baghdad appears to be in more substantial distress."

British and United States forces have captured Umm Qasr and Safwan [Source: Stratfor] Possibly a blocking action to allow other forces to sweep north from western Kuwait toward Baghdad. Once Basra is captured, the several Iraqi divisions there would be isolated and the road to Baghdad would be clear(er).

Also, as of 3:59 EST, MSNBC is reporting an AH-64 Apache is down somewhere in Iraq. No other details.

It seems the "shock and awe" strategty still hasn't started, so the bombing shown on television could be a "softening up" on strategic targets, with the U.S. military hoping to score some early victories and "decapitate" the Iraqi leadership. This indicates the U.S. is still attempting to change the political situation in Baghdad without urban combat. The weirdly creepy appearances of Saddam reading from a notebook (later assesed to be genuine [NBC]) indicates the United States has failed for now.

Iraqi claims 72 Tomahawk missiles have struck Baghdad, but "many have failed." Four "martyrs" (civilians) are dead and one officer. [CNN]

More on the Iraqi air defenses
About 20 minutes before the start of the latest round of attacks on Baghdad, air-raid sirens went off. This means, based on the air-speed of Tomahawks, was detected about 200 miles out, or around Basra. This could mean a visual or audible detection of the missiles passing over Iraqi forces. And that means the communication between Baghdad and Basra is still intact.

The 7th Cavalry has moved out early, and CNN reporter Walter Rodgers is reporting that they're moving a day ahead of schedule, possibly because of Iraqi missile attacks on forces in Kuwait.

Things are quiet but tense on the northern front. The Turks haven't moved in, but there are contradictory reports about their plans. Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told reporters in Mardin, Turkey, today that Turkey would not invade Iraqi Kurdistan. [TurkishPress.com daily email] Under a deal between the Kurds, Turks and Americans, the Kurds and Turks would both refrain from marching on Mosul or Kirkuk. Also decided upon was the participation of Iraqi Turkmen on the Iraqi National Council, which is intended to shape the future government of Iraq.

As Talabani said, emphasizing his point that Turkey doesn't need to come in, "If we need help, our first phone call will be to Turkey."

However, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin confirmed that Turkey would dispatch troops to Iraqi Kurdistan, despite the objections of both the U.S. and Kurdish parties. Refuting Talabani's statement that he would pick up the bat-phone to Ankara, KDP president Massoud Barzani said, "If the Turkish army crosses the border there will be much suffering."

On a related note, on March 18 the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party placed their peshmergas, between 70,000 and 80,000 men, under U.S. command.

Dear Christopher,

I was referred to your blog by an American friend and liked what I read in short... wished to have more time to read the rest! Well... I don't know if you will be interested to know about the life down here in Iraq and add it to your blog!

I'm Kurdish male living in Erbil city and working in Suleimaniyh city and have siblings in Baghdad... therefore and to some extent I'm aware of what is going here. Yesterday afternoon I left the city I work in turning back home to Erbil to join my family and get prepared for leaving it to some town or village to avoid risks and hazards expected for the major cities in entire Kurdistan! in the way back it was very discouraging to hear and join the conversation in the taxi cab with the other two men and the driver that was all about expectations for the disastrous circumstances ahead! in the way it was terrifying to see people leaving Erbil city to anywhere they can reach and find a single room to live in, for who do not have relatives in towns or villages they just had to put a tent in the open area where a water stream can be found and stay there under rain and the wind blowing up there ears all day time.. unfortunately the weather is gray, wet and cold here which is not usual! streets between cities are packed with cars of people leaving, and who don?t have a car he used a carriage pulled by a mule as transportation mean... it so looked like inside city streets than out-city highways!!!

I went out this morning to see how is life, all I could see was closed shops and the feeling of emptiness.. yes one still can see people in the streets and yet some of the neighbors, relatives and friends are in the city but yet you cannot stop feeling the city is just like been evacuated! there is no life, people are like walking dead!

Here in home (like most houses here in Kurdistan who are still in home) we are arguing all the time about staying home or leaving it out! but where to go and what to do there and till when and is it totally safe?! what if we stayed home and the city was bombed by chemical or biological weapons!?? these days we are memorizing the tragic catastrophe of Halabja .. there is the fear that that brutal action to happen once again, Saddam is unscrupulous and a tyrant and can commit that crime again! there is another fear that Iraqi army forces to bomb the cities in Kurdistan once American troops enter the cities!! ... lot things that freezes blood in veins when think about!... its a messy and hard time to make decisions.

I couldn't get to contact sisters in Baghdad, we are so worried about them, its been awhile when the shiaa people are threatening and planning so bad for the Sunnis! I hope a massacre not to happen by war time!! a little small chaos can lead to blood shower in Baghdad. Well I presume you have heard about the two major Islamic sects; shiaa and suna! I'm not so sure how it?s spelled in English but that's the way we name them here!

I just want to say one more thing, I?m so happy that Saddam is about to be banished and to turn a page down and start a new life, but yet I wished it could happen without a war... I'm sure the international community is aware about Saddam and what is he doing to his people and also so sure they can help us to expel him but no one cares!! I also wished if a war to break out then not to be an American one, I wished the international community to take initiative if it had to happen, I can't digest the idea of the single power pole and American?s as world?s sole policeman!

Thanks for your time,
djoy [an alias he asked me to use]

Do the Iraqis want Saddam gone? Absolutely. Do they want a war to do it? Well...

In news of trip preparations, I'm getting leads on visas, sat-phones and rugged laptops. I've heard that Ankara is issuing same-day visas, so I've initiated the transfer of the paypal funds to my checking account and I'm about to max out my credit cards on plane tickets to Turkey.

Man, I'm going to be so broke after this. As a friend of mine said, "Dude, you need to practice saying this: 'Hi, I'm Christopher from Back-to-Iraq.com and would you like fries with that?" This whole endeavor, however, will be worth it.

Hearing some intriguing reports that Baghdad's air defense system may have seen F-117A stealth fighter/bombers coming. Unsure yet of the timing, but the anti-aircraft fire seemed to be aimed in the direction of the jet's approach and the sirens and guns lit up moments before the F-117As came into range. CNN is reporting that the Pentagon is concerned that sophisticated long-range radar may be operating somewhere in Iraq, which would complicate and possibly lessen the USAF stealth advantage.

have a narrow field of view and are only able to acquire a target with the accuracy necessary to "lock on" if cued precisely onto the highest threat. These systems use radar as the surveillance and cueing sensor to achieve this. But while one of these electro-optical sights will see a stealth aircraft, a radar would not be able to point it in the right direction. A target would have to fly directly into the narrow field of view covered by the thermal sight in order to accurately track it. Some authorities suspect this is the scenario that led to the F-117A being shot down by the Serbs which, if true, still shows that the F-117 is vulnerable to even primitive technologies under the right circumstances.

Furthermore, Serbia sold off the material from the crash to the highest bidders, and Saddam made contacts with former Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, according to ABC News back in 1999. China, too, is known to have worked with Iraq in developing an air defense system.

According to reports, the stealth-detection technology China has developed is known as passive coherent location (PCL). It works by tracking the signals of civilian radio and television broadcasts and analyzing the minute turbulence in these commercial wavelengths caused by aircraft, including stealth aircraft. [MIT-Online again]

This is not to say the American aircraft are going to be shot down willy-nilly. The Serbs got lucky in 1999. The Iraqis may be a little trigger-happy and just happened to be pointing in the direction of the F-117As. No doubt American air supremacy will be undiminished.

The Pentagon is giving a briefing at 11 a.m. EST, and maybe some more answers will be forthcoming.

Watching all of this on CNN leaves me with a cauldron of conflicting feelings. On one hand, I'm horrified that this war has started. This is the wrong war at the wrong time. It's wrong for the United States, the Iraqi people, the system of alliances built up since World War II and for world stability. It will make America -- and the world -- less safe. It will also kill a lot of innocent people needlessly.

I'm also a little relieved, now that the tension of the last few months has been broken.

But as a journalist, I'm also very, very frustrated that I'm still waiting on visas and I'm not there yet. (This impatience is, admittedly, not one of my finer qualities. Other journalists will understand, though.) I don't want to feel like a vulture, but I'm champing at the bit to get in there, get into the thick of the story and see first hand what's going on. I don't like relying on CNN et al. But I also want to be part of the biggest story in the world right now.

Today, the Syrians told me to refax my visa information, but they were -- suddenly -- much more optimistic about my paperwork. Fatima told me a transit visa shouldn't take too long. An Iranian visa company I'm working with told me things would be more possible after 25 March, when the Norooz New Year (20-24 March) is over. After that it will take a week, I was told. So things are still looking good for a two-week or so departure date.

While the world turns its eyes toward Iraq, as initial cruise missile attacks have the weird feel of a false start on a sprint, it's important to remember that other war: the one on terror.

There's a major offensive going on in Afghanistan at the moment, with about 1,000 U.S. troops raiding villages in southeastern Afghanistan searching for members of al Qa'ida. Members of the 82nd Airborne took part in the raid, the largest since Operation Anaconda about a year ago.

But there's been another casualty in the War on Terror: Rand Beers, the National Security Council official in charge of the war on terror resigned this week. While a spokesman for the NSC said it was for personal reasons, various sources in the intelligence community say there is widespread worry that Iraq is hurting the terror war.

"Hardly a surprise," said one former intelligence official. "We have sacrificed a war on terror for a war with Iraq. I don't blame Randy at all. This just reflects the widespread thought that the war on terror is being set aside for the war with Iraq at the expense of our military and intel resources and the relationships with our allies."

This is one of my major oppositions to going to war with Iraq. (Well, I guess that's moot now.) I've not been opposed to war because it's immoral or innocents will die -- although dead civilians is definitely an issue. War is sometimes justified and necessary, as in Afghanistan, and innocents die in a war. That's part of what makes it so horrible.

I'm opposed to this war with Iraq because I felt it wasn't in the national interests of the United States. It will make the war on terror harder by pushing moderate Muslims into grumbling hostility and already hostile Muslims into the arms of Osama bin Laden. In short, I think invading Iraq will lead to more terrorism rather than less. Both in the short term and in the long term.

And now the question of whether the world will be safer after Saddam is gone will be answered. I don't think we're going to like the outcome.

10:20 PM EST: Strikes were "decapitation strike," huge explosions in B'dad now CNN reporting. Was Saddam hit? Don't know yet.

10:15 PM EST: Bush speaks: "On my orders, coalition forces have begun striking selected targets.... these are opening stages. .... more than 35 countries. ... I want americans and all the world to know that coalition forces will make every effort to spare civilians from harm. ... We have no ambition in iraq except to remove a threat and restore the country to its own people. Our forces will be coming home as soon as the can. ... the only way to limit its duration is to apply decisive force. ... we will accept no outcome but victory. ... "

9:57 PM EST: CNN reporting more flashes over B'dad. No huge explosions yet. PS: I'm not in danger. Not in Iraq yet. But thanks for the well-wishes.

9:55 PM EST: CNN reporters with U.S. troops are still in holding pattern. Not yet en route.

9:23 PM EST: Stratfor reports that Pentagon sources say that the strike involving F-117 fighters was aimed at a site where Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and other Iraqi leaders were believed to have been staying.

Still peaceful for the moment in Baghdad. CNN video footage is quiet. Dawn over Baghdad. Cruise missile strike in Baghdad. "Target of opportunity," CNN says. Sounds like it's before the planned attack, apparently. Important target. Saddam?

CNN is reporting that Baghdad air defense forces are firing into the air, but there are yet no bombs dropping yet. It's almost dawn in Baghdad. CNN says this is not the beginnig of the war. No one seems to know what's happening right now, least of all the Iraqis. Might be a softening up, might be panicky Iraqis, we really don't know yet.

As yet, no reports of airplanes. --

UPDATEL 9:46 PM EST Ari Fleischer is entering the WH Press Room

"the opening stages of the disarmament of the iraqi regime has begun." The president will have a statement at 10:15 pm EST.

It's happening.

As Stratfor tried to verify or discredit the rumors through its own sources, some of our readers took the opportunity to criticize us for falling behind various Internet rumor mills. We've received similar criticisms for missing the multiple reports of the arrest, death or immaculate transfiguration of Osama bin Laden. Though we contemplated responding with varying degrees of crassness or seriousness, depending on the tone of the comments, events have demonstrated the validity of our approach to analyzing this and other conflicts. Stratfor takes nothing at face value. We are now swimming in a sea of rumors, propaganda and the fog of war. Stratfor has always set as its goal sifting the elements of truth from this mess. We hope to continue serving as your steady and unbiased source of analysis on the conflict in Iraq.

None of this absolves me, of course. Fogs of war and rumor mills are confusing. At thet moment, it's very hard to know what's going on. But as an old Associated Press reporter, I can say this: Sometimes this is how news works. Stratfor and the Evening Mail were reporting the B-52s were en route. Now it seems they're not... Perhaps we'll get a better glimpse of what's happening around 8 p.m. or so.

At 1808 GMT (1:08 p.m. EST, 9:08 p.m. Baghdad) B-52 bombers were reported taking off from RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. Flying time to Iraq is about six hours. Earlier today, they were reportedly loaded with cruise missiles. The British press has also reported that skirmishing has commenced between Iraqi troops and U.S. and British special operations forces near Basra. Coalition aircraft also have attacked 10 Iraqi artillery pieces in the southern no-fly zone, and Israelis have been ordered to open and fit their gas masks, keeping them nearby at all times.

If this is true, that would put the bomber in range at 7 p.m. or so EST, one hour prior to the deadline. Cruise for an hour and drop. If I can inject a wry comment at this time, President Bush is known for keeping things punctual.