In a sign of increasing violence against Shi'ites, early Friday morning, a bomb destroyed the Baghdad HQ of the "Badr Brigade":http://www.sciri.btinternet.co.uk/English/About_Us/Badr/badr.html, the private militia of "SCIRI":http://www.sciri.btinternet.co.uk/English/About_Us/about_us.html, the leading Shi'ite political party in Iraq. A woman was killed and at least seven people were injured.
Headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, SCIRI and the Badr Brigade are believed to be in a low-level war with the insurgents, which is likely made up of Iraqi nationalists and Sunnis loyal to the old regime. 
An elderly Iraqi woman sits outside her home destroyed in Friday's explosion. Photo by Alexander Demianchuk/ReutersThe Brigade is a likely source of manpower for a "proposed counter-terrorism unit":http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=AB5FE03B-E752-4D90-B2D28FC5D2077AE2 that would draw on the private militias of the various political parties in Iraq -- mostly exile groups, but including the Kurdish _peshmergas._ Juan Cole reports that Iyad al-Samarra'i, the secretary general of the Iraqi Islamic Party, calls this plan a "recipe for Lebanonizing Iraq." Just two days ago, insurgents "shot and killed Muhannad al-Hakim":http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1071791286761_67200486/?hub=TopStories, head of security at the Education Ministry and a cousin of Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim. The big question now is, will the Shi'ites strike back? That's the worry, as that would be civil war, with American troops in the middle. That's what the insurgents want, as they think that a messy civil war will cause the American troops to bug out -- not an unreasonable assumption given the bombing of the Marines' barracks in Lebanon civil war in 1983 led to just that outcome. (By the way, my use of of the terms "Sunnis" and "Shi'ites" in the context of this post should not be construed as portraying _all_ Shi'ites and _all_ Sunnis as lusting for each others' blood. I'm referring to the militants and political activists in each camp. The majority of Sunnis and Shi'ites just wish to live in peace.) To a degree, the capture of Saddam may have made the Shi'ites less inclined to listen to the Americans, who no doubt are urging SCIRI to avoid retaliation. Without the the worry of Saddam returning to power, the Shi'ites are losing patience are are less inclined to tolerate the occupation and become more assertive. A little over a week ago, a bomb exploded at the Ahbab Mustafa Mosque in Baghdad, killing four Sunnis. And a friend of mine is in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city and a Shi'ite stronghold, tells me the graffiti is a mixture of thanks to America and calls for _jihad_. Couple the Shi'ites numerical superiority with the hand-over in sovereignty in June, and they will have mostly a free hand to deal with the Sunnis. It could be a bloodbath. Will they wait until June -- and let the Americans soften up their Sunni foes in the meantime -- or will they counter-attack now? "The attack on the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf in August":http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000451.php#000451, which killed Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, did not result in a civil war, but the shadow of Saddam still hung over Iraq, and the Shi'ites may have worried that in the chaos of civil war, he might somehow return to power. And so they kept their powder dry. Will that be the case now?
An elderly Iraqi woman sits outside her home destroyed in Friday's explosion. Photo by Alexander Demianchuk/ReutersThe Brigade is a likely source of manpower for a "proposed counter-terrorism unit":http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=AB5FE03B-E752-4D90-B2D28FC5D2077AE2 that would draw on the private militias of the various political parties in Iraq -- mostly exile groups, but including the Kurdish _peshmergas._ Juan Cole reports that Iyad al-Samarra'i, the secretary general of the Iraqi Islamic Party, calls this plan a "recipe for Lebanonizing Iraq." Just two days ago, insurgents "shot and killed Muhannad al-Hakim":http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1071791286761_67200486/?hub=TopStories, head of security at the Education Ministry and a cousin of Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim. The big question now is, will the Shi'ites strike back? That's the worry, as that would be civil war, with American troops in the middle. That's what the insurgents want, as they think that a messy civil war will cause the American troops to bug out -- not an unreasonable assumption given the bombing of the Marines' barracks in Lebanon civil war in 1983 led to just that outcome. (By the way, my use of of the terms "Sunnis" and "Shi'ites" in the context of this post should not be construed as portraying _all_ Shi'ites and _all_ Sunnis as lusting for each others' blood. I'm referring to the militants and political activists in each camp. The majority of Sunnis and Shi'ites just wish to live in peace.) To a degree, the capture of Saddam may have made the Shi'ites less inclined to listen to the Americans, who no doubt are urging SCIRI to avoid retaliation. Without the the worry of Saddam returning to power, the Shi'ites are losing patience are are less inclined to tolerate the occupation and become more assertive. A little over a week ago, a bomb exploded at the Ahbab Mustafa Mosque in Baghdad, killing four Sunnis. And a friend of mine is in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city and a Shi'ite stronghold, tells me the graffiti is a mixture of thanks to America and calls for _jihad_. Couple the Shi'ites numerical superiority with the hand-over in sovereignty in June, and they will have mostly a free hand to deal with the Sunnis. It could be a bloodbath. Will they wait until June -- and let the Americans soften up their Sunni foes in the meantime -- or will they counter-attack now? "The attack on the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf in August":http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000451.php#000451, which killed Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, did not result in a civil war, but the shadow of Saddam still hung over Iraq, and the Shi'ites may have worried that in the chaos of civil war, he might somehow return to power. And so they kept their powder dry. Will that be the case now?
I fear that things are teetering on the edge of chaos in Iraq, and plenty of folks that would like to give that final push. I do hope the reasonably minded citizens win out. History does not bode well for that scenario
“I’m referring to the militants and political activists in each camp. The majority of Sunnis and Shi’ites just wish to live in peace.”
Thanks for reminding us of that, Chris. I know I find myself all too often slapping those labels down unthinkingly. You know, “the Shi’ites want to recreate Iran”, “the Kurds want an independent state”, “the Sunnis support Saddam”. I imagine most Iraqis want, as you say, to live in peace, to get along with their lives, to not have to duck bullets, to get a job or farm their land or do whatever it takes to get by. I imagine this, I don’t know it. That’s why I read Salam and Raed and Riverbend. They’re a small sample, but they are Iraqis. That’s also why I look forward to your return next year - your last trip exposed your readers to Iraq and some of its people, and we need more, much more, of that if we are ever going to get a grip on our responsibilty of “fixing what we broke”, to use Tom Friedman’s term.
But of course, we can’t “fix” Iraq. We Americans can only help the Iraqis find a way out of the current mess and into a Saddam-free, Coalition-free, Wahhabi-free future. God grant us all the wisdom and strength necessary for the task ahead.
I just spoke with with daughter Eva on the phone. She is home in Nashville!
She said she ended up being in Damascus for almost a week, having to rearrange flights due to schedule limitations.
I asked her if Meran likes his job, if he’s glad he went. She said yes, he likes his job very much. He’s in a unique position due to his life experience, having been in refugee camps and having time to study in his native language for four straight years before coming to America, then learning English well. He knows both languages fluently and that makes him a good asset to the US military.
He has translated, for instance, for training of Pershmergas being trained as police officers by US military. He has also been with operations on the border where they were investigating smuggling operations. I asked Eva about what we’ve been hearing about the intelligence raids going wrong due to bad information, or despite good information the translators getting addresses wrong and innocent people being harassed, threatened, and scared out of their wits…how it’s making people turn against the US military. Eva said that in Meran’s experience, there has been negative situations. He has known some soldiers that have bad attitudes towards all Iraqis, no matter who they are. He has coworkers, other translators, that have said, “Yes, the money is good, but it’s not worth the harassment”, and have resigned their jobs and returned to the US. Due to this concern, while Meran was in the hospital recovering from his surgery, he contacted the commanding officer for the area and spoke to him about this concern. From what Eva understood, the situation improved because of this; what that means, I don’t know. Maybe upper command wasn’t aware of it and due to Meran’s intercession, down the chain of command, word was sent to be more respectful and it has helped. We can only hope…
It’s all speculation, isn’t it?