chris,

i have a sinking feeling that our leadership is just dumb enough to overreact here, go into najaf like a blind bull in a china shop, and it’s only going to make things worse. it seems these uprisings move from city to city and back again, and the “insurgency”, however fragmented or disorganized it might appear, must be coordinated on some significant level. it wouldn’t surprise me if they vanish on the eve of whateve u.s. action is planned, then appear somewhere else in a few weeks. but you know more than i. and you had it right with the masses having no history of popular uprising. even here at home, especially here in a free country, the followers are always more dangerous than the leaders. since here the followers are supposed to wield the real power.

stay safe.

Well, Chris, it sounds like on the one hand you are thinking there is not much cause to delay the ‘elimination’ of the annoyance and potential problem of religious radicalism presented by al-Sadr…and on the other hand - given the useless masses - not much hope for a true democracy there until a robust middle class develops.

How do you suppose that will happen? Do you think this will become our latest goal?

Chris,

it’s good to hear your take on events. You covered a lot of ground in few words.

I like that.

IMO,

It ( the media ) is getting very “cookie cutter” in reporting.

The actual news seems to be three/four days old, pulled off the back burner and reserved.

yuck! leftovers? again ?!

This is an excerpt from the 8/12 entry about the FAX transmission;

”..the Mehdi Army — in a delicious bit of political theatre — faxed a press release to Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s office warning of an indefinite 1 p.m. curfew…”

LOL,

I for one would like to see the fax journal print out of that particular machine that received it !

Just my opinion Chris,

…..It smells of an Al Jazeera area code…. LOL

Or maybe a closed down office was broken into ?

So,by your post, you may also be comming to a conclusion the mighty mehdi army is about to pull a General Mac Arthur and just…slowly

…fade away ?

I really do hope so.

Stay safe.

btw,

I enjoyed your soup of the day ! ;)

Man, I hope you’re right, Christopher. I don’t know who to blame here, the CPA, the IGC/Allawi administration, or Moqtada. Well, yes, I do know who to blame - all of the above. Al-Sadr had more than one chance to become part of the interim government or at least the later government, to become, likely, a more powerful and beloved person under any democracy which might yet form than as a resistance leader or martyr. He’d done some good grass-roots democratic work right after the invasion, and gained some credibility by organizing neighborhood security when none existed and by helping the dispossessed through the Hawzas. Then, for whatever reason, he pissed it away. The IGC/Allawi people got more wrapped up in power-grabbing and pleasing the New Boss than in making a serious move towards real grass-root democracy. And as for the CPA, the privatization schemes and the fact that it was essentially a wholly-owned subsidiary of the GOP and its contributors darn near assured its failure.

Meanwhile, 140,000 of our finest are stuck with a very rocky security operation, trying to tame a situation that can’t be tamed by Iraqis, never mind very well-armed outsiders from a different culture. I believe that what they are doing is good work for the most part, but some of it is no doubt humiliating to a proud people. Much like how we would feel if the Chinese came here and started building baseball fields on our garbage dumps. And the failures of the CPA and IGC/Allawi government fall largely upon their shoulders.

That’s the view from my far-off corner of the world, anyway. Frankly, I hope it’s a muddled view.

BTW, missed you on WBUR, but heard you on NPR/Here and Now yesterday. Did I hear you right, that Allawi had granted the Marines carte blanche in dealing with Moqtada? My daughter was in the room, and had half my attention.

Keep up the good work, and thanks again for contributing to my education.

Chris:

Good to hear from you, been awhile and I was begining to worry!

You say Moqtada doesn’t want democracy; he only wants to be a dictator, and thus his assasination would not have much long-term effect. I think that overlooks the problem that his statements, over and over again, seem to support democracy; at least those that get translated into the Western Media. Is it really the perception of the, admittedly hypothectical, average Iraqi that Moqtada just wants to be a dictator, or do some believe his call for democracy is genuine?

He seems to be trying to position himself in such a way that his death would be seen as the death of a supporter of democracy (and perhaps thus increase his personal saftey.) I think in the States his death would cause nary a ripple but I am not so sure that is the case in the Arab world; many, it seems to me, could point to his words (not his actions) and proclaim him another martyr.

Peace,

Kim

It seems like the racist and classist attitudes of the Iraqi elite, directed towards slum-Shiites, are rubbing off on you. It reminds me of the racism that new immigrants to America pick up from whites, directed towards blacks.

While you sat comfortably in the U.S., as Allawi did in London, Sadr saw his entire family gunned done by Saddam. And if the U.S. does the same thing to him now? Sadrism is movement, a sect of Shiism targetted towards the poor, and speaking on behalf of the poor; movements can always find new leaders.

Your reaction to the slaughter in Najaf, tens of thousands dead in Iraq, and mass kidnappings has a frat-boy indifference to it…

and the answer to everything is,

if only we could all be middle class !

Chris-

Help me out here with some background. First I don’t feel the article you wrote is much more than a rehash of what’s being spewed from Fox and MSNBC albeit with some subjective observations, that’s pretty critical, but I gotta say it. I am hoping you can give some perspective on Sadr. I mean here is guy who should be an ally of the Americans (Shiite leader whose family was massacred by Saddam) but instead he has been put into the Zarqaqi-BinLaden pot. People here talk about how he is a threat to freedom for Iraqis etc., but I read a report on how Iraqi women applying for passports must be accompanied by a male “guardian”

Iraq under Saddam seemed to be a secular society, but womans rights are being denied by Allawi’s people.

Can you write some more on Sadr’s motives? Is he fighting in order to keep his weapons? Is he preaching jihad against all Americans or only the ones in Iraq? How about the support he gets from the people in Najaf? As far as Fox, MSNBC is concerned all the citizens want him out, according to Al-jazeera he is supported by SOME of the civilians.

Seems that the media wants to portray Sadr as the one and only thing impeding Iraq as it makes its way to Democracy. Seems way too simple to believe, there is always someone ready to occupy the role of the villain.

This is my last post, I get too frustrated with Back-to-Iraq.

Not because I think you are writing articles that are not in line with my opinion, but your articles lack the same specifics the mass media journalists do, the “why” the “how” of these players. characters and situations come about.

If you read any article from TIME-NY Times etc. basically it boils down to “The Radical Shiite Cleric battles Coalition Forces, sources report major offensive to begin to stop terror.” The media forces a new villain on us without any objectivity.

I wish you the best, a safe trip as well.

no popular revolution in middle east? Iran?????

Eamonn— You might want to read the whole post again to address you comment.

My friend stationed in Mosul told me in a recent email to destroy my TV, as the news on it is an insult to what is happening in Iraq. Not that this comes as a surprise, but the passion of it did. So I look to your posts Chris, to let me know more of what is really happening in Iraq. Thanks, and I hope to see more of them!

you know… I haven’t written a comment here in a while, but I’ve been reading every post. I must say by now that I do enjoy the way you write immensely.

Keep up the good work.

While I agree with your perception on most questions regarding Al Sadr, I see the problem as a kind of “thought experiment” concerning the probable reality that whatever the US/UK does, there is nothing that will change the fact that they are not welcome in Iraq (for me a good reason to get out of there). Most reasonable people, even if highly suspicious of US motives in Iraq, are anxiously waiting for the Mehdi rebellion to be quelled. HOWEVER. I doubt that many people in Iraq, the Arab world, or for that matter, the entire Muslim world (sadly I could probably extend this around the planet…) are really ROOTING for the US here. I realize that rooting is not exactly a very precise word…but I hope you know what I mean anyway.

It is exactly this point that few people in the US seem to understand. The extreme idealistic (ideological?) nature of the intervention in Iraq i.e. spreading the word of Democracy is not significantly appealing enough to justify that American soldiers kill any Iraqi, nor is it able to compete with other equally strong ideals. The fundamental difference between the rational or even ideal, idealistic? intervention and the reality of the situation seems to be exactly the uncomfortable, irresolvable tension which lead to exactly these problems.

It seems, the US army is now only perceived as an occupying force. At best the people count on them to maintain the peace, nothing more. Nobody is going to be waving stars and stripes out their windows when Sadr is dead. And I claim, again based on the idealism behind the adventure, this would be a necessary pre-requisite for success in Iraq. It appears to me, sitting here comfortably in Europe mind you, that this fundamental difference of perception makes the occupation impossible to maintain.

kde

Anti-imperialists are in favor of self-determination, which does not necessarily imply democracy, and, given the west’s skill in manipulating and undermining democracies, often specifically excludes it as a viable option. Empires are evil by nature, and all those who advocate good should oppose empire. Consequently, I don’t think the international condemnation of Sadr is quite so universal as you seem to think.

Well I can see people are either for or against you regardless of what the truth is, more about whether your posting agree or disagree with their pre-formed idea regarding the situation. I’ll say to hell with that, keep reporting thing as you see it and stay safe, don’t provide the kidnappers with another high-profile victim.

BTW, would you charaterized the professionals (ie teacher, doctors, professor, engineers) made up the majority of Iraq middle class? Or they have been replaced by the merchant class?

Your (somewhat racist and classist) post ignores the moral aspects of the US is still killing large numbers of Iraqi citizens and even the logic is wrong.

You say that Sadr forces can only do minor damage to the government, but they are controlling whole cities. They are helping turn Allawi into the mayor of Baghdad instead of the ruler of Iraq. They are destroying the little bit of legitimacy that the unelected government has with every dead Iraqi citizen and every freshly dug mass grave.

Did you ever think that the Iraqi people look at the Sadr movement first as Iraqis and second as theocrats? Did you ever think that the world might despise Sadr but still be against slaughtering large numbers of Iraqis?

Also, I am curious what credentials you have (aside from staying in a hotel in Baghdad) that give you such knowledge of Iraqis.

Hey, Ted— No, the Iraqis don’t look at the Sadr movement as Iraqis first and theocrats second. The majority of Iraqis — and I’m not talking Kurds here, Arab Iraqis — don’t support him. They see him as a punk kid who is acting childishly. They don’t like the occupation, but they also won’t shed too many tears when he’s gone. And yes, the world SHOULD be outraged by the killings of large numbers of Iraqis but when it comes to the destruction of a well-armed mob such as the Mehdi Army, led by Moqtada, I’d be surprised if the world puts up too much of a hue and cry.

Will you really take it seriously when China denounces killings in Iraq? If Iran or any of the neighboring countries? When liberal democracies flock to Moqtada’s cause, then I’ll think he’s accomplishing more than getting a bunch of his own people killed. Moqtada has been asked repeatedly to join this interim government’s political process. And he’s refused every time. He says it’s because the government is a puppet of the Americans — and it largely is — but the latest reason, based on my talking with people who advise him, is that he thought he wasn’t getting enough spots in the upcoming national conference. He’s become Newt Gingrich with guns. He’s not organizing for elections, even though this government is appointed and elections is the best way to get rid of it. In short, he’d rather blow up the table than have a seat at it, simply because he disapproves of the carpenter.

In short, Iraq would really be better off without Moqtada. He’s accomplishing very little and provoking confrontations with the Americans. I was talking with an Iraqi Shi’a friend of mine yesterday who has been pretty down on the Americans and the occupation, but he finally agreed that the Americans had a right to storm the Imam Ali Shrine because Moqtada is storing weapons and launching attacks from there — although he prays it doesn’t come to that, as does everyone. But that’s the level Moqtada has fallen to in this confrontation.

And for what? He doesn’t want to play in the new political game, but guess what? Reality sucks, and you can either make do with the situation you’re given or you can continue to exist in a fantasy land that the clock can somehow be turned back to January 2003 or something. There are far too many of the latter type here.

What are my qualifications? I’ve been studying and writing about Iraq since 2002, visited it twice before this trip, actually do reporting by talking to a lot of Iraqis. If that’s not enough, then my friend, I don’t know what would be.

And as for racist and classist, you should know my beliefs: Just because someone is poor and oppressed does not make them virtuous or righteous. Just because they feel frustrated does not give them the right to pick up a gun and vent their rage on American troops or Iraqi civilians. And Moqtada really pissed me off when he defiled — yes, defiled — Imam Ali shrine by storing weapons there. He’s provoking the Americans. Trust me, they don’t want to go in there. They know the consequences.

I believe in non-violence, in peaceful resolution to conflict and, when that fails, fighting with a purpose. I’ve yet to see what purpose Moqtada’s battle is, except to vent and lash out. And this I should support?

The problems with matyrs is that you can never control them :)

your point about the differences between what happened in Iran and what may happen Iraq is something worth thinking about.

True, Iranian society did have much more of middle class, and true, the leftists were were a dynamic part of the revolution. But also remember that Khomeini, who had been confronting the Shah since the sixites, was the only figure who could consistently call for mass demonstrations single-handedly, and although the Iranian left was organized and militant, it was Khomeini’s mass appeal that was able to swallow up both the regime of the Shah and all the other competing factions.

The US never stopped worrying about a “red” secular/leftist revolution in Iran, which is why the “black” revolution of the shiite clergy caught them completely by surprise.

not that Sadr is of the same stature, but if the Shiite masses in Iraq found such a figurehead as khomeini, then the situation would be much different.

Chris: So is anybody involved there, virtuous or righteous? What has that got to do with anything?

I thought the latest goal is “democracy”, not “righeousness”. Maybe that’s what bothers some about the disregard for “the street” you indi-cated existed there.

And the only thing I know about approaching an objective, broad read on what Iraqis on the whole feel about al-Sadr (as opposed to anecdotal evidence), was the final CPA survey done in May -

showing a significant rise in favorability for the little bastard among Iraqis. Certainly a poll doesn’t tell the whole story of any issue, but that one seemed to be pretty much ignored in the media.

You know, I remember when Iraq was just better off without Saddam and the Baathists. Those were the good old days! Solidarity! Now EVERYBODY thinks it would be better off without somebody else.

I have confidence we can take out al-Sadr and his minions, but I wonder how the Convention’s gonna go this weekend.

Do you have any thoughts or hear anything about that?

Chris: However much of a punk Sadr may be, the fact of the matter is that the CPA dealt with his situation badly in the first by choosing to marginalize rather than allowing the Iraqis to do it for themselves. As for what the Arab street thinks, I think a bigger concern is how it plays for people inclined to violence and at the end of their tether in the first place. The larger narrative which surrounds your story is that the CPA and the interim gov’t. are moving things in the right direction largely because their is apparently no alternative. I don’t buy that, and I think you have done very little in that regard to explore what the deeper power and economic issues are concerning the restructuring of the country. For the most part, your writings read more like weather reports than pieces of actual insight. In this regard, this is where Juan Cole outshines you and he’s not in country. It would be far better to read what specific constitutional issues are being argued, the struggle in setting up elections, the contracting problems, etc. If you had read any number of other blogs by Iraqis, you’d see that there have been big complaints over the writing of the constitution and the laws imposed on the Iraqis by Bremer’s administration. Where is this coverage?

I can sympathize with the struggle that it must be to report under such difficult positions, but the degree to which you play it up makes the reporting more about you and less about the situation.

By the way, instead of getting testy and nasty with people who are offering you some constructive criticism, as you did above, you might consider weighing it. So you’ve been studying Iraq for two years? Some of us have been following the political situation in Iraq since its invasion of Iran in 1978 or earlier, not that we’re reporters or Iraqis, but people who realize what gos on in the world is important even when the US has nothing to do with the situation. Can you say the same?

I disagree with the comment about your credentials. I find it interesting to hear what you say because you don’t seem to want to prove anything. Obviously you try to understand things beyond your education, experience, background etc. exactly like most people.

It seems much of this conflict is ultimately about questions of authenticity, knowledge, experience etc. and how they might not be reconcilable

It is good to hear the more uncensored things you have to say. So please keep it up! Those impressions are interesting exactly because they are not the cautious work of print media or scholars…

I work with an Iraqi and his predictions from the start of the war have all come true. He has predicted that the US will leave Iraq with its tail between its legs. I am waiting to see that.

re: kidnapped journalist in Basra

Chris, can you give any confirmation on identity? If Reuters has it correct….unbelieveable, in any case, but this guy was putting out interviews with insurgents…Juan Cole has an excerpt a piece he’d done….Scotsman has some stuff…this is like a bad frigging version of marat/sade…mounted at a gun expo…

Hi Chris,

I hope you have some insight on this. I read in the media (pro and anti-west) and various Iraqi blogs about all the civillians being killed by the U.S. in places like Najaf. At first, I think to myself.. “how horrible” then I think “are they innocent civillians?” I think Najaf has 500,000 people in it if I recall. And, there are a few thousands fighters amung them. Why don’t the other 400k plus people do what they can to get these people to leave their city? Why don’t they protest in front of the shrine against these fighters? If they did this en-masse, it seems it would be a great statement and could do more for peace than the violence. Are the crazy radical people the only ones willing to be a martyr? Why do the citizens appear to sit silently, or flee, and allow this to happen?

This battle is like a hurricane. You can see it coming on the radar for days. If you choose to stay silently in it’s path, you accept the consequences. The one difference is that the citizens of places like Najaf can stand up against the impending hurricane, but appear not to.

re: gmjtt

“If you had read any number of other blogs by Iraqis…”

I don’t know many. URL’s would be welcome. Please post.

DhamaBum

a very good blog: http://raedinthemiddle.blogspot.com Of course he’s busy nowdays but when you’re there click on the link to his mother’s blog and you’ll be there. Then there is ‘riverbend’ _ you can reach her the same way.

Christopher: You may want to re-evaluate your impressions of Muqtada al-Sadr’s overall popularity In Iraq in the light of recent observations at Informed Comment (juancole.com).

Particularly in “Muqtada Wounded by US Bombing” [posted @ 8/13/2004 08:06:46 AM], Professor Cole relays that, “Muqtada’s favorability rating was 68% according to the CPA’s own polling last May. It may well be higher now.” And many developments reported before and since indicate a pretty strong following.

I have no doubt that you’re talking to a good many people there, at least in Baghdad. But that in itself doesn’t constitute a census, or even a randomly sampled poll. Muqtada, in fact, appear to have a great deal of support from Iraqis, who are doubtless thoroughly fed up with the myriad failures and abuses of US occupation.

Beware the temptation, as exhibited by numerous military commentors out of Iraq, to perceive being in on location in Iraq as somehow being in ALL of Iraq. It is a very big, very diverse country.

JMFeeney -

Thank you so much. Someone beside me is familiar

with that CPA survey. Nobody in the media has indicated any interest in it since the AP first published news of it on June 16th - and the folks who commissioned it (the White House, at the CPA’s request) didn’t think we needed to know about it. It was leaked or obtained unofficially by the AP. The administration confirmed the AP story, but no ranking official has ever spoken of it.

According to the AP story,”… 81% of Iraqis had an improved opinion of al-Sadrin May, from three months earlier, and 64% said the acts of his insurgents had made Iraq more unified.” However,

“…only 2% said they would support al-Sadr for president…”

Interestingly, only 2% called our troops “liberators”

while 92% considered them to be “occupiers”. 41%

said Americans should leave immediately, with another 45% favoring our getting out as soon as a permanent Iraqi government is installed. The CPA’s confidence rating stood at 11% and coalition forces had 10% support.

I am glad someone already took this BS posting to task; it is full of highly presumptive generalisations aimed at conjuring what amounts to a rather decisive judgment. Even worse, CA sort of uses his thinly informed synthesis to declare Iraq and the world better off without MAS. And, apparently, no one in the world (?) opinion would shed a tear or even lift an eyebrow if it came to pass. Where have we heard this sort of rhetoric and reasoning before…soft facts, evil people, all according to popular concensus (except when there are less popular exceptions, of course).

It really is a small, small world in those Baghdad bureaus linked to a US newsdesk.

With all due respect, you don’t even have enough of a common sense not to post yellow journalism of this type on this blog. A journalist without common sense. sigh Your lack of curiosity for history and the culture of the ME is lethal.

BTW, your lack of knowledge about politics, history and Islam leaves no room for you to have any sound judgment about anything pertaining to ME.

Re-Iranian revolution:

The Middle Class was destroyed by the ‘so-called’ Revoultion and their houses were given to poor people who had never seen pools in their life and used it to wash their clothes in. Please enlighten yourself.

God I hope you’re right, but the support he’s received at the conference today, and the NYT article about the depth of support he has in Sadr City seems to contractict CA’s assumptions. Plus the presence of the mosque in the middle of the fighting makes a difference. Attacking MS might not make so much of a splash, but fighting so near that mosque, even though it hasn’t yet been substantially damaged, seems to infuriate most Shites.

I’m relying on Juan Cole and the NYT for most of my information. I’d love to be wrong.

You are so wrong about the Al-Sadr movement it is hard to believe you are actually in Baghdad. Of course it will continue without Moqtada. If it survived the loss of true intelectual giants like M. BAkir Al-Sadr and M.M. Sadiq Al-sadr surely Moqtada’s martyrdom will only strengthen them. You are so ignorant of the Shia that you fail to even perceive the most basic point, that martyred leaders are even more effective than living ones, because they never make mistakes. Moqtada will be much more popular in death than he ever was in life.

Nejmidean: I agree. A student of Shi’a history easily will confirm your assertion. I guess as a journalist you don’t need to study cultures, politics or history.

CA: Rule #1: Middle Easterners/Orientals in general, don’t mean what they say, especially to a foreigner. The best you can do is to translate their lies. It’s part of the culture of being oppressed for generation after generations.

Very cool entry. Lots to think about. Thanks!

Nice post, was an interesting read, even though I don’t agree with it totally. Love your blog design.