Is It Civil War Yet?

That pink-o, liberal workers’ rag DefenseNews (no link that I can find, unfortunately), also known as a trade publication for defense contractors, published a depressing piece on Iraq calling the situation here an “undeclared civil war.” I think it’s time we journalists faced up that this is, indeed the case.

BAGHDAD — That pink-o, liberal workers’ rag DefenseNews (thanks to Robert for the link!), also known as a trade publication for defense contractors, “published a depressing piece”:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/message/60549 on Iraq calling the situation here an “undeclared civil war.” I think it’s time we journalists faced up that this is, indeed the case.
I remember many discussions over the past few months with colleagues as to whether this place is in civil war yet or not, but I think this article lays out the argument for it pretty well:

‘Things Are Getting Worse By the Day’
Undeclared Iraq Civil War Signals Worse to Come
5 Sept 05
By Riad Kahwaji, Dubai
Iraq’s long-feared civil war is escalating and will engulf the entire country unless ethnic leaders take drastic steps, according to officials and analysts.
“The current sectarian and ethnic killings in Iraq are actually the beginning of a civil war,” said Georges Sada, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the executive secretary of the Iraq Institute for Peace. “Sectarian divisions in Iraq have started back in the ’90s, which prepared the ground for the civil war spreading today.”

Kahwaji notes that the Americans have downplayed deep cultural differences between Sunnis, Shi’ites and Kurds despite the increase in sectarian and ethnic killings since April 2003. And while Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad and military commanders now acknowledge the possibility of civil war, none of them will label the violence going on right now as such.
Hundreds have been killed for being Sunni, Shi’ite or, less often, Kurdish. Entire neighborhoods of Baghdad are being “cleansed”:http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1096488,00.html (paid link, sorry. c’mon, guys!). Sunni leaders accuse the government of Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shi’ite from the Dawa Party, of allowing the Badr militia to settle scores and eliminate enemies by using the security apparatus of the state. (Badr controls the Interior Ministry and its dreaded commando units.)
And yet, I’ve been reluctant to call it a civil war because I just haven’t been able to. I felt unsure and perhaps a little unwilling to see that it’s gone as far as it has. And others say “the existence of a political process means it’s not yet a civil war”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4249172.stm. I now think that’s simplistic. After watching this place for two years, I’m now prepared to call this thing a civil war, aligning myself squarely with the America-haters at DefenseNews.

“For over a year now, there has not been a day in which Iraq did not witness sectarian killings where the victims were either Shiite, Sunni or Kurds,” said Ghassan Attiyah, chairman of the Baghdad-based Iraq Foundation for Development and Democracy. “I’m not talking here about random shooting. I am talking about targeting people individually on the roads and killing them for being from one group or another.”

In the article, Qassem Jaafar, a Doha, Qatar-based Middle East security analyst, listed the symptoms of a civil war:
* A weak central government with incompetent security apparatus.
* Spread of sectarian and ethnic killings.
* Existence of armed sectarian and ethnic militias.
* High threat perception among the sectarian and ethnic groups of the country.
* Insistence of each group on its demands.
* Foreign interference and support to feuding groups.
All of these elements are present now in Iraq, and the constitution process didn’t help matters.
Trumpeted by Khalilzad as a “national compact,” the constitution is instead a greater source of division, and privately the Americans are barely stomaching it. The problem is not so much the content as is the process. It’s not a _bad_ document, as written, and the contradictions within — with the exception of federalism — can probably all be finessed. But the process of drafting it, which largely excluded the Sunnis, deepened distrust among the various groups. The Sunnis, who didn’t participate in January elections and who have themselves to blame for not having legitimately elected leaders to sit on the panel, distrust the Shi’ites and Kurds as making a power grab. The Shi’ites and Kurds, however, never trusted the Sunnis who _did_ show up to help draft the charter, saying they weren’t elected so who knows who they represent. (Both fair enough points, I suppose, but not very helpful ones for bridging divides.)

“If the constitution is not amended to meet Sunni demands and goes as-is to the referendum, then moderate Sunni figures would lose ground to the radical forces and an all-out civil war will spread to each corner of the country,” Attiyah said.
[UPDATE: It was amended slightly, but whether it will be enough to assuage Sunnis remains to be seen. The hard core rejectionists obviously will never vote for it.]
Jaafar agreed. “The U.S. is facing a serious dilemma in Iraq, where its Shiite and Kurdish allies have gone out on their own pushing for their own agendas that do not seem to meet with Washington’s vision of a future Iraq,” he said.
“The Shiites, for example, have been pushing for an Iranian-style Islamic republic, which would not suit U.S. interests,” while “the Kurdish secessionist drive is growing stronger every day, which is getting Turkey and other neighboring states more worried.”

The question is what is Washington going to do? They’re in a no-win situation, Jaafar says, neither able to withdraw nor able to maintain Iraq’s unity and establish a democratic Iraq as a model for neighboring countries. Attiyah believes the U.S. might choose to sacrifice Iraq’s unity for its own goals.

“I believe some U.S. officials have started entertaining the idea of dividing Iraq on ethnic and sectarian lines to ensure stability and facilitate their exit after establishing some military bases in the oil-rich Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq,” Attiyah said. “In this case, Washington would blame the Sunnis and other neighboring states like Iran and Syria for the breakup of the country.”

A dismembered Iraq with various militias fighting over the corpse on top of 20 percent of the world’s oil. It’s a nightmare scenario that looks more more likely by the day, and the current civil war is just a smolder compared to the inferno to come.

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Here be Dragons…

Lately, I’ve been getting a lot of email from aspiring foreign correspondents who want to cut their teeth in Baghdad…. But at this time, I think it’s an unwise course of action and I’d like to take a little space to outline why…. I started this blog in August 2002 after a dash into Iraqi Kurdistan the previous summer.

BAGHDAD — Lately, I’ve been getting a lot of email from aspiring foreign correspondents who want to cut their teeth in Baghdad. I understand the sentiment, I really do. But at this time, I think it’s an unwise course of action and I’d like to take a little space to outline why.
First off, about my situation for the newcomers here: I started this blog in August 2002 after a dash into Iraqi Kurdistan the previous summer. I had a hunch that war was coming and I wanted to get some time in, at least where I wouldn’t be hanged if caught in Iraq illegally. It was a thrilling time, running around Erbil and Suleimaniya, always worried if those shifty guys in the lobby of the Suleimaniya Palace were Iraqi _mukhabarat_ or Kurdish _pesh merga_ or both, warily eyeing each other over cheap coffee tables and fake flowers. I journeyed to Halabja and found myself enormously moved by the plight of the victims of the 1988 chemical attacks there. I met senior members of the Barzani and Talabani clans, all major players on the Iraqi political scene now, and by my questions annoyed the hell out of the current president’s wife, Hiro Talabani. (No hard feelings, ma’am!)
Next, I did the whole blog-raising thing, changing the paradigm for DIY reporting in a war zone in the process. Who knew? Back-to-Iraq became a phenomenon and donations eventually topped more than $11,000 that all went to cover the war in April 2003. It was thrilling and dangerous — and surprisingly easy reporting. I really just wandered around, following explosions and writing about my day. In the process, I captured a bit of the heart of Iraqi Kurdistan in its struggle against Saddam’s regime. I was there when “Kirkuk”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2003/04/heading_south.php was taken back by the Kurds. I was in Tikrit when the last holdouts melted into the landscape, leaving the field to the Marines and “Arab fighters”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2003/04/inside_saddams.php more interested in defending their homes from Kurdish looters than shooting wandering journalists. (Some of the greatest hospitality I’ve been shown in Iraq was at the hands of the Tikritis as they stood around two dead _pesh merga_ and offered me protection against the Marines, knowing full well I was an American journalist. All they cared about was that I wasn’t Kurdish.)
Ah, those were the days. Even “Baghdad”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2003/04/clutching_for_a.php immediately after its fall felt open and watchful instead of boarded up and scared as it does today. The Marines and the 3rd ID walked the streets without helmets or body armor. They stood in queues waiting to buy food, amusing Iraqis to no end, for whom queues are a bit of an alien social arrangement. They’re more partial to crowds.
When I returned for the third time in May 2004, however, things were different. I had raised money again, this time as seed money for a more traditional freelancing career. I figured the donations and my savings would see me through a couple of months. However, TIME Magazine snapped me up immediately and I’ve been working with them ever since. So much for the two months I thought it would take to find a steady gig. And it’s a good thing, too, as by May 2004, the situation had become very bad, with an insurgency we all thought would not get worse but most assuredly did (and still is.) But even in those days, I remember just hiring a couple of guys to drive and translate and run around the city at all hours of the day and night. One of my best memories was a drunken evening at Dragon Bay, the Chinese restaurant outside the Green Zone that had a karaoke machine. My colleagues and I warbled away until 1 a.m. or so and then made my poor driver — who didn’t much like Chinese food — take us home. Along the way, we saw John Simpson, of the BBC, doing a standup report in the darkness of the city. Drunken with cheap red wine and the thrill of the forbidden, one of my friends yelled out “John Simpson sucks!” Sorry, John. Professionalism did not rule the night. Hope the standup went OK.
Such stunts are unimaginable now. I don’t know any Western colleagues who go outside our compound at night. Our social life has been reduced to dinner parties and pool parties. But the work is what’s even worse. Every day we venture out with eyes peeled for kidnappers (who like soft targets such as journalists), IEDs, American patrols and trigger-happy Iraqi troops. The ambient threat has risen far past Condition Red. the Committee to Protect Journalist has listed Iraq, for the second year in a row, as “the most dangerous place in the world to work as a journalist”:http://cpj.org/attacks04/mideast04/iraq.html. “Sixty-sevennine journalists have been killed”:http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/28/iraq.journalists.reut/ here since March 2003, according to Reporters without Borders. That’s more than the _20 years_ of the Vietnam War (1955-1975). Some have been killed by American negligence and error. Others were “murdered by terrorist thugs”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2005/08/steven_vincent.php. Five of my friends have been kidnapped, but thankfully all were released. One kidnapped journalist, Italy’s Enzo Baldoni, was killed. I didn’t know him.
My point is that this is no longer a freelancer’s war. I’m lucky. I have the entire security apparatus of TIME Magazine to back me up. I am protected by guards, have access to cars, the entire secure compound, you name it. I have an editor who would miss me if I didn’t show up. (All of the kidnapped journalists have been freelancers who didn’t check in regularly and people often didn’t know there were missing at first.)
All of these protections cost money, something most freelancers are short of. It is simply no longer advisable to hire a driver and translator and go running around the city like I did last summer. I’ve been getting a number of emails from young journalists asking to do just this, and I tell them not to come and do this unless they have the backing of a major media organization’s security infrastructure. Steve Vincent ended up dead because he cowboyed around Basra — and that’s one of the safe cities, we’re told.
One option, however, is to embed with the U.S., British or other Coalition forces. You will be safe, relatively, and you’ll get to see parts of the country other than Baghdad — which is thick with journalists anyway. It’s an interesting experience, and I’ve found, in my experiences, the accusations of censorship — with one exception — to be grossly exaggerated. If you get a cool commander, he probably won’t give you any grief.
(Of course, there are some common-sense and reasonable restrictions: don’t give away troop positions, don’t show the faces of dead soldiers before their family has been notified or 48 hours, whichever comes first. Things like that.)
Oh, and forget about embedding with the Iraqi forces. The Ministries of Interior and Defense don’t allow this and they don’t operate independently of Coalition troops anyway. Also, they’re often so poorly trained and possibly infiltrated you would be in even more danger from the Iraqi troops than from random, street-level violence in Baghdad — which is why the Coalition and Iraqi ministries don’t allow embedding solely with Iraqis. A journalist killed or betrayed by the troops he’s supposed to be embedded with is very bad PR.
This is all very frustrating I’m sure. I can still remember the hustle that got me out here, and it pains me to discourage new people, but “I’ve already seen one friend die”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2005/04/our_heart_and_c.php because she was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and I’m in constant fear that it will happen again. All the freelancers I know, including me, now have long-term relationships that provide us the infrastructure to “work.” And many organizations seem to be cutting back on their coverage and, thus, their hiring.
There are plenty of places that need energetic, young journalists. Darfur, southern Thailand, Indonesia, even Syria (if you can swing the security apparatus.) For those without experience in extremely dangerous work conditions, this is no place for on-the-job training.

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Why was New Orleans such a disaster?

Why was New Orleans such a disaster? “First Responders Unprepared, Underfunded for Next Terror Strike”

Here’s a reson: “First Responders Unprepared, Underfunded for Next Terror Strike.”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2003/07/first_responder.php While this report deals with the idea of a terror-strike, the overall theme of underfunding of first responders should give you an idea of the Federal Government’s spending priorities.

Back Up

Almost 1,000 Shi’ites in Baghdad are dead in a stampede that is a horrible, horrible tragedy. And you mean to tell me that four years after 9/11, the United States federal government responds to a massive disaster in a major American city in such a slip-shod manner?

BEIRUT — Well, as you can see, the blog is back up. A few minor changes have been made, and all the special features seem to be working.
But really, who cares? Almost 1,000 Shi’ites in Baghdad are dead in a stampede that is a horrible, horrible tragedy. The _only_ upside is that for a while, sectarian suspicions were put on hold as Sunni mosques organized relief for Shi’ite families. Today, however, I hear politics in Baghdad are back to normal — there was a gunfight at the bridge, which isn’t unsual for Baghdad.
Meanwhile, back in the United States, I’m shocked and appalled by the destruction of Katrina and the sheer ineptness of the rescue efforts. You mean to tell me that four years after 9/11, the United States federal government responds to a massive disaster in a major American city in such a slip-shod manner? Unbelievable. I guess those tax dollars going to homeland security were well-spent, eh?