BAGHDAD -- Ninevah province, home to the mixed city of Mosul and the besieged city of Tal 'Afar, is seeing some very strange numbers. I've done back of the Excel envelope calculations and have found this:
- In the January election, which was boycotted by Sunnis, there were 165,934 votes cast, according to the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq.
- In October, according to AP's preliminary results, there were 419,804 votes cast in Ninevah, an increase of 253,870 votes, or +152.99 percent.
- The number of people voting for the constitution in Ninevah, according to the AP, was 326,774 (78 percent), with 90,065 voting against it (21 percent). Less than 1 percent, or 2,965 votes, was disqualified.
By way of comparison, Tamim province, home to the disputed city of Kirkuk, saw 542,000 votes cast -- an increase of 35.2 percent over January -- with 341,611 voting "yes" (63 percent) and 195,725 voting "no" (36 percent). You mean we're supposed to believe that in Tamim, which is also a mixed province but which has had a steady stream of Kurds moving in for the last two-and-a-half years, had more than twice as many no votes as Ninevah? And with the Kurds already pretty much owning Kirkuk? Color me skeptical.
What's truly eyebrow-raising is that the number of constitutional "yes" votes -- 326,774 -- is more than the total increase in votes over January's turnout. That suggests that not only did all of the Sunnis in Ninevah province, who largely boycotted the January elections turn out, but that they all voted for the constitution. That's a very strange idea to me, as I've not met a single Sunni who voted for it here in Baghdad.
Ninevah is home to Mosul, a mixed city of about 2 million Arabs, Turkomans and Kurds, as well as Tal'Afar, the mostly Turkoman city of 500,000 that U.S. and Iraqi forces stormed last month. Anecdotal reports are that a) Sunni Arabs have come out in droves, mainly to vote down the constitution, and b) the constitution was very unpopular in Tal'Afar because of military actions there.
Now, several possibilities spring to mind: Sunni Arabs in the north really love the idea of the new national charter, but I find this unlikely, to say the least. In fact, I only suggest it for the giggle factor. Another possibility is that the vote was blatantly fixed. A third possibility is that the Kurds moved thousands of people into Mosul to skew the vote. Oddly enough, I heard Sunnis making just this charge in the run-up to the Saturday's referendum. A third possibility is a combination of the last two. The vote was rigged and the Kurds moved people in.
Now, contrasting points that prove I don't know what I'm talking about, suggested by colleagues:
- Mosul is an Iraqi Islamic Party stronghold. The IIP called on its supporters to vote "yes" after a deal last week to open up the constitution to early amendments. This split the Sunni opposition to the charter.
- The Sunnis simply don't make up 20 percent of Iraq. There hasn't been a reliable census in years and not only do the Sunnis not make up 42 percent of Iraq as Saleh Mutlaq, a member of the National Dialogue Council, claims, but they're much fewer than the 20 percent most people assume.
- Ninevah and Mosul aren't Sunni strongholds. It's conventional wisdom, but maybe that's wrong.
- Mosul was a lot more violent in January, keeping the vote there down. Perhaps now, with less violence, more Kurds -- perhaps half of the total increase -- were able to come out and vote.
- The Turkomans aren't a factor. Money quote from cynical colleague: "There are more Turkoman parties than there are Turkomans."
- The AP numbers are so preliminary, they're flat-out wrong.
The possibility exists that all of these possibilities have played into the dynamic in Ninevah, leading to wild numbers, and I've not been able to reach a stringer in Mosul yet to get more information. But if these numbers hold, there's something very, very rotten in the north.
(Hat tip to various commenters who alerted me to the numbers here.)
Technorati Tags: Current Affairs, Iraq, Middle East, News and Politics
Oh hell… That’s just what we need. A corrupted referendum….
I just posted the same misgivings on another forum. There were a lot of irregularities in January’s vote as well.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI30Ak02.html
Unmentioned here is that actual voting numbers were down in places like Najaf and other so-called Shia strongholds. in addition, with the exception of Mosul, it appears that many eligible voters in so-called Sunni strongholds boycotted the vote. What this means, when added to the lower Shia numbers is that many Iraqis voted NO by staying home. When added to the numbers of those who went to the polls and voted no (and not taking into account any rigging that probably went on) what are the overall percentages for yea and nay votes?
No matter what, this election will mean very little in both the long and short run, since the US military is not leaving the country.
Yeah, I’d have to say, basing all this speculation on numbers from the AP? Ha!
The AP is just terrible, everytime I see an article these days that says AP, I skip it…
Sounds somewhat similar to the last two national elections in the U.S. Perhaps we should just call it the “GWB Factor”????
It’s almost as believable as Hamid Karzai getting 91% in Kandahar province and 96.3% in Khost province in Afghanistan’s presidential “election”.
CNN is showing different numbers. They show the NO vote ahead in Ninevah by a slim majority.
CNN results, “A senior Iraqi official said on Monday that while 424,00 of the province’s 778,000 voters said “No” to the charter, this fell short of the two thirds necessary to reject it.” Fun. Now that’s almost five times the number that voted last time around. If the previous lopsided AP numbers are also correct, it could mean that someone realized they had overstuffed the ballot box and tried to counterstuff it back to plausibility, resulting in these amazingly high turnouts. Meanwhilst, “Iraq to audit vote amid fraud allegations” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9729873/
Ronald Reagan might have called this a “Soviet-style sham election”.
Chris please read this NYT article: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/17/international/middleeast/17cnd-ballot.html
-quote- Iraqi election officials said today that they were investigating what they described as “unusually high” vote totals in 12 Shiite and Kurdish provinces, where as many 99 percent of the voters were reported to have cast ballots in favor of Iraq’s new constitution, raising the possibility that the results of Saturday’s referendum could be called into question.
In a statement released this evening, the Independent Election Commission of Iraq said the results of the Oct. 15 referendum would have to be delayed by “a few days,” because the apparently high totals in favor of the constitution required that election workers “recheck, compare and audit” the results. … Members of the Iraqi election commission declined to speak about the announcement of the investigation. But an official with knowledge of the ballot counting said that the 12 provinces where the “yes” votes exceeded 90 percent all had populations that were either majority Shiite or Kurdish. Leaders from those communities strongly endorsed the proposed constitution. More than one of those provinces, the official said, reported that 99 percent of the ballots counted had been cast in favor of the constitution.
None of the provinces cited for a closer look had Sunni majorities. -endquote-
They are investigating the provinces that had a guaranteed outcome, but NOT the provinces that might have had a NO-vote and were fraud would be plausible.
I’d say that is fraud at the HIGHEST level.
BTW: Who is the only non-Iraqi member in the “independent election commission”?
Yes, that sounds about right: any time a vote doesn’t go exactly how you want it to, it’s been faked, probably by neo-cons.
Do you people really give a shit about those numbers? Really?? Try crunching the numbers from our elections, Holy shit we are in deep shit. I know—We will pray our way to a fair and ballenced america. Wow, just awesome you people are. Do you pick up the serpent too?? Praise george—he speaks for god.
An election decided by hanging chads in Florida - The Candidate’s brother’s state.
Re-election thanks to 100+% turnout in Ohio.
Congratulations, Confederate States of Eyerack,
you have learned your lessons well.
Now that you’re free and democratic, get ready to invade Iran, Syria, any country ending in ” -stan “.
Trust us - you’ll get electricity and water back , soon as you help liberate a few billion more barrels .
Do the neo-cons think that Ninevah is Ohio?
As an Iaqi, I am absolutely disheartened by the fact that these historic allections have and are to all intents and porpuses fraudulant. So far i’ve actually supported the American Iraq adventure simply because i believed that a democratic and modern future for Iraq is ossible under the stuardship of a democratic country such as the america, disregarding the obvious fact that America did not come to liberate us simply for the love or kindness of GB’s heart. If this constitution is approved and blessed by the american administration then it would be like a slap to every honest and piece loving Iraqi who actually believed in the honest intension of bringing democracy to Iraq. The democratic transparency and honesty of every election must be honest and true, otherwise peace will never come to Iraq and your troops will never be able to leave with their heads held high in triemph of a job well done.. The next few days will be the hardest. I hope for the best. thank you. salam 3alekom
Chris, thank you for your on-site, real-time reporting of these events. We need you blogging from Iraq, and we need you back home safe as well. Please keep up the good work.
AUTHOR: EMAIL: IP: 200.181.58.218 URL: DATE: 10/18/2005 09:42:43 PM
For Akba,
This quote has been attributed to Winston Churchill:
“No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except all those others that have been tried from time to time.”
It would be a shame if the elections are fraudulent. But the only way to get democracy right is to be vigilant and to keep voting until it is clear that the result is fair and reflects the will of the people.
Only by actively participating will the people of Iraq triumph over past dictators and send foreign troops back to their home countries.
I think a triumph for the people of Iraq is a triumph for the entire region and for people all around the world.
Good Luck!
There are rumors of a 99% yes vote in places. Reminds one of you know who.
It is to be expected if the following is accurate and I’ve seen a number of confirming pieces while the right goes on about the old food for oil scandal:
http://amconmag.com/2005/20051024/cover.html
You know when this thing is over and done, I think it will turn out that those who claimed to support the war while shouting out all analysis or criticism, deflecting the topic and declaring complete victory twice monthly will have done far more to subvert the effort than all the leftist marchers.
Do we get to call Limbaugh and the rest traitors?
Chris said “But if these numbers hold, there’s something very, very rotten in the north. “
The North ? I doubt the people of the north would vote to bring back the old regime by voting NO to democracy ( as the baathists propaganda flyers suggested should be done ) The Kurds are the majority up north. I think they wouldm’t want to return to Saddam’s day’s in power.
That reminds me, Didn’t Saddam run for president in the early 90’s and got like 99.8 % of the vote ? yikes Some people were rounded up I understand and it wasn’t a good thing for them.
Then Saddam ran for re election…LOL, he got 100% of the vote the 2nd time around.
hmmmm…
I would like to know the vote count in Anbar province will add up in the final tally . Although some voting stations couldn’t open under the threats and orders of the “freedom fighters” — oxymoron ?
If like 90 to 95 % voted NO of the stations that did open in Anbar… tell me would voter fraud be suspected ?