Sunnis hitting back

BAGHDAD -- There are scattered reports that the Sunni gunmen and others have begun striking back against Shi'a neighborhoods and religious sites. We're hearing that attacks on Shi'a positions are happening right now in Kadhimiya, Doura (a mixed neighborhood) and Adhimiya, a Sunni area, but with some Shi'as living there.

There is a report that in Shu'aybah in Basra, the tomb of Anas ibn Malik, one of the Prophet's Companions, has been blown up. I have no further details on this.

The curfew that locked down the center of the country today has been extended into tomorrow. No movement from 8 p.m. tonight, three hours ago, until 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.

At least 158 people have been killed in Baghdad in the last two days, according to police, Interior Ministry and Baghdad morgue sources. It is unknown how many have been killed around the country. The Muslim Clerics Association, a hardline Sunni organization, says that more than 168 of their mosques have been attacked around the country. While this number may be inflated, we have independent sources that say at least 100 have been attacked. So let's put the numbers between those two ... for the present.

The people who planted the explosives in the Askariya shrine in Samarra on Wednesday knew what they were doing. Not only in a technical, but also a political sense.

First, the technical side: The blasts seem to have been set by demolition experts who had plenty of time to set the charges. Now, maybe they got lucky, but I doubt it. I have a feeling that taking down the dome was the plan all along.

On the political front, if you wanted to dynamite any kind of nascent trust that was developing Sunni and Shi'a parties as they struggled to form a government, this was the way to do it. The men who blasted the shrine wore Special Police Commando uniforms (not difficult to get, really) and tied up the guards minding the shrine. This last detail is unusual because jihadis usually kill the government employees who fall into their hands.

And there's been no claim of responsibility from any Sunni insurgent groups. The only response has come from the the Mujahideen Shura Council, which is composed of seven insurgency groups in Iraq: Al Qaeda in Iraq, Victorious Army Group, the Army of al-Sunnah wal Jama’a, Ansar al-Tawhid Brigades, Islamic Jihad Brigades, the Strangers Brigades, and the Horrors Brigades. The statement read, in part:

"The Mujahideen Council declares that it will not allow this overt aggression and violation on the Sunnis and their mosques. The answer will be jolting. ... The Mujahideen declare that what happened was concocted by the apostate government of Jaafari and ... Iran to cover up for the crimes they commit against (Sunni) Muslims. ... The incident in Samarra, which targeted one of the rejectionists' (Shiite) idols, was followed by a series of events that show Muslims everywhere what had been prepared secretly against the Sunnis."

That there's no evidence for any of this is beside the point. Sunnis are quite prepared to believe the Shi'as, i.e., Iran, blew a holy shrine to cause chaos and create the pretext for a give-no-ground negotiating position in the government talks. The consequent show of Shi'a strength by means of Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and the Iranian-backed Badr Brigade also is a way of reminding the Americans who's really calling the shots in Iraq these days. So hands off that nuclear program next door!

For the Shi'as, it's not nearly so convoluted. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of AQI, has been trying to start a civil war for almost three years because a failed state allows him to operate freely and he comes from the hard-core anti-Shi'a branch of Salafist Islam. Simply put, the Shi'a are worse than the American infidels and they deserve to die.

In short, people are now to a point where they will believe anything that demonizes the other side. In the come days and weeks, look for the two groups to play "we're more grieved than thou."

Personally, I think jihadis hit the Askariya shrine. I think they did everything they could to make it look like it was a Shi'a inside job so the Shi'as would rampage (as they did) and give any Sunnis who might have been considering cooperating with the new government second thoughts. Furthermore, this will slam shut any division between Ba'athists, Iraqi Islamists and jihadis that the Americans had been working on for so long. Under the threat of a Shi'a onslaught, the Sunni insurgency will put aside its differences.

The silence only feeds the conspiracies and paranoia, making it harder for Sunnis and Shi'as to work together and stop this rush to oblivion.