Al Qaeda in Iraq has released a video of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi on a jihadi web site, which is the first time he's been seen in video since the Nick Berg beheading video.
"Your mujahideen sons were able to confront the most ferocious of crusader campaigns on a Muslim state. They have stood in the face of this onslaught for three years," Zarqawi said on the video.
I'm working on getting a copy of the video, but so far, this is the first time AMZ (as he's called in U.S. military parlance) has appeared in a video without a mask. (He was concealed in the Berg video.) It's a well-produced video, with slick graphics and professional titling, of a kind with many videos from insurgent and jihadi groups. I've seen pictures of AMZ and this video appears authentic.
So the question now is why the video and why now? There are a number of factors. There have been persistent rumors that AMZ was replaced as the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) on Jan. 20 by an Iraqi, Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi, on the orders of the Mujahadeen Shura Council, the umbrella organization for the jihadi groups in Iraq. I've never quite believed that, and instead thought it was a ploy by AQI to make itself more palatable to nationalist Iraqis who don't follow the extreme Islamism of Al Qaeda. AMZ has been catching a lot of flack for the last year or so because of his suicide bombers and brutal tactics. This is why you no longer see the gruesome beheading videos. There are still a lot of suicide bombings, but there are likely less than there were, and they seem aimed more specifically at American and Iraqi security forces with more care taken to reduce civilian casualties. So, by releasing this video, he's showing the world -- and Iraqis, insurgents and civilians alike -- that he's still around, still the man and still commands the loyalty of AQI.
Secondly, by literally putting a face on himself, AMZ is humanizing himself and attempting to quell the discord with the Ba'athist groups that has been splitting the Sunni insurgency -- a split that has been exploited with limited success by the Americans. By putting himself forward less as a spectral bogeyman and more of a heroic leader -- as the images in the video do -- the thinking may be that when the civil war finally breaks out, as many in Iraq anticipate, AMZ will be seen as a leader among the Sunnis, and not as an outsider among Iraqis. While the Ba'athists and jihadis generally despise one another, they despise the Iraqi Shi'ites who hold power more. The Ba'athists see them as Iranian stooges (not entirely inaccurate, frankly) and the jihadis have adopted a toxic anti-Shi'ite ideology that holds the sect as unbelievers (_kafirs_.)
But this video's audience is not primarily the West. Many people think the insurgents produce videos and stage attacks in sight of western media to influence the populations back home. This is only partially true. By creating the impression -- and the reality -- of chaos, they can undermine support for the U.S. presence in Iraq among Americans. But the real purpose of these videos is recruitment. Instead of scared westerners, the real audience is the disaffected and angry young men of the Muslim world. They will download this video, like they do all the others, and pass it among their friends and watch it at Internet cafés in Jakarta and Riyadh over and over again.
In the 1970s and '80s, you couldn't claim to have any juice as a terrorist group unless you had a decent media arm. This is why Hezbollah pioneered the filming of its attacks against the Israelis and started al-Manar, its broadcast arm. The need for an effective media campaign is still true, but there is no longer really a need for Western media to publish a screed or air a tape. It can be distributed online for less money, with more reach and hit a more targeted audience than before.
It's likely not a coincidence that the video was released now, just a couple of days after the deadlock over PM Ibrahim al-Jaafari was broken with the selection of Jawad al-Malaki, the brains of Jaafari's Dawa Party. While the Iraqi government remained in limbo, the political chaos allowed the Sunni groups room to move. But with the deadlock broken, the formation of the new government will probably proceed apace, with the further strengthening of the Shi'ite-dominated security forces. The Sunnis have to pre-position themselves if they're to stand a chance in the coming civil war, and AMZ's video is part of his effort to position himself with the Sunnis.
UPDATE 4/26/06 8:58:50 AM +0200 GMT: Interesting. According to IntelCenter, in the video, AMZ is briefed on two new rockets allegedly developed by the insurgents in Anbar province. The two rockets are the "Qaeda 1" and the "Quds 1." The first allegedly has a range of 40km and is capable of carrying a 50kg explosive, while the second is designed to be fired horizontally and is designed to pierce armor. "God willing, these rockets will be used in the next phase," the briefer tells Zarqawi.
Mr. Z has certainly been eating well for the world’s 2nd most hunted man, hasn’t he?
Unless, of course, he’s also suffering from renal failure and taking dialysis with OBL (maybe they’re sharing the same machine!).
But I’m sure that’s another story for another day.
Tragic. AMZ has been given the title “Iraq Terror Chief” by the Associated Press in its headline, whilst Jawad al-Maliki is a mere “Prime Minister-designate” mentioned half-way down the article and Talabani isn’t spoken of at all!
With the media giving legitimacy to his ‘platform’ by delivering AMZ a title like that, who needs to see his crappy video??
In terms of real power and influence, AMZ is more important than Malaki or Talabani — especially Talabani, as the presidency is pretty much a figurehead position under the Iraqi constitution.
‘which is the first time he’s been seen in video since the Nick Berg beheading video’
Given the recent findings that the washington admin. is pouring money into feel good stories and propoganda, and the admission recently that the cult of Z has been deliberately pushed by the occupationists, surely it is incumbant upoon soemone who claims a journalistic bent to be less complicit in regurgitating unproven ‘facts’ like the Berg video. A little more circumspection would be beneficial if you are trying to give an accurate portryal of the current goings-on in Iraq.
Kevser— if you’re saying the U.S. has pushed the Zarqawi story line greater than was warranted, I would agree with you. If you’re saying he’s a myth or that Nick Berg was killed by CIA agents or something along those lines, you, frankly, are a paranoid kook.
Fact: Zarqawi is real. His role was boosted by the U.S. military via stories they leaked, but he is real and he is a threat to Iraq and the greater Middle East.
Fact: Nick Berg was killed, and Zarqawi was the guy who did it. Ba’athists, Islamists, U.S. military guys and just about every terrorism expert will tell you this. TIME Magazine has talked to people in the insurgency who both work with and despise Zarqawi who will confirm this fact.
Thanks Chris for taking the time to answer.
‘Nick Berg was killed, and Zarqawi was the guy who did it’
If you believe this, and it may be true, then you must believe the following coincidence:
That Nick Berg, who had no connection with any security forces or terrorist organisations, was personally killed by the head of Al Queada in Iraq and his email account was used by Moussaoui, allegedly the 20th participant in the 9/11 attacks.
Now all i’m gonna say is this: Thats some coincidence in a country of 290 million people. What would ya say are the chances of that happening?
Someone is lying somewhere.
The email thing seems to be true, i cant say why anyone would fake that. Unless you have an idea?
So, that leaves the N.Berg/Zarqawi story. I dont beleieve it. The most obvious explaination is a propoganda video by the occupationists to distract from the Abu Ghraib Torture story.
Or he was killed by someone else and Zarqawi was blamed.
In May 2004, when Nick Berg was killed, there weren’t that many jihadi groups in Iraq. Zarqawi had been operating in Iraq since before the war — in the Kurdish north, mind you — and his group, al Tawhid w’al Jihad, was basically the one that started the kidnapping spree. So it’s not unlikely at all that Zarqawi got his hands on Berg and killed him. There just weren’t that many groups on the ground at that point.
As for the email account thing, I googled and found a CNN report. If he was hanging around OKC, where Massaoui and associates was taking flight lessons, is it so random he would encounter someone tied to those guys? It’s a massive coincidence if you take the entire country as the pool of people for him to meet. It’s not so massive if you realize that OKC was a hive of these guys in flight schools…
The story is that he let some dude on the bus use his laptop to send an email… and the dude had some ties to Massaoui. From what I’ve learned about Berg, he was incredibly trusting and naive, which was a big part of him getting killed in Iraq. So I’m not surprised he would let someone use his email account this way.
Weird and creepy? Definitely. Coincidence? Yeah, probably.
Anyway, according to Berg’s father (and the CNN report), this event happened “a few years” before his son’s death, so you’re cooking up some conspiracy that extends to the Clinton administration involving Berg and Zarqawi … or something.
Anyway, you’re entitled to your conspiracy theories. Just don’t expect people with knowledge and experience not entirely gleaned from blogs to buy them.
Out of curiousity, how many legs does he seem to have in the video? Natural, born-with legs, I mean.
While it may seem a minor detail in the grand scheme of things, this discussion of AMZ and whether he is significant (or even exists) is an important debate.
It would be nice if we could believe everything we read, but it’s clear that the versions of the facts often change.
It’s useful to figure out what is disinformation and what is real, be it from terrorists or from Rumsfeld & Co.
That is clearly half the battle and the first step into figuring out what are appropriate actions in Iraq.
I think a whole blog could be dedicated solely to weeding out or proving conspiracy theories and nullifying the effects of disinformation campaigns.
While it may seem a minor detail in the grand scheme of things, this discussion of AMZ and whether he is significant (or even exists) is an important debate.
It would be nice if we could believe everything we read, but it’s clear that the versions of the facts often change.
It’s useful to figure out what is disinformation and what is real, be it from terrorists or from Rumsfeld & Co.
That is clearly half the battle and the first step into figuring out what are appropriate actions in Iraq.
I think a whole blog could be dedicated solely to weeding out or proving conspiracy theories and nullifying the effects of disinformation campaigns.
“There are still a lot of suicide bombings, but there are likely less than there were, and they seem aimed more specifically at American and Iraqi security forces with more care taken to reduce civilian casualties.”
more care taken to reduce civilian casualties!!! More care taken to reduce civilian casualties!!! Are you serious Allbritton? Well, since when the bakers, students, workers, are considered been military?!!
“AMZ will be seen as a leader among the Sunnis and not as an outsider among Iraqis” That could be taken as an insult… And, Allbritton, stop taking the civil war as granted, still you never know, still, it’s not that easy to predicate,even if it is getting nastier for the time being.
Interresting that he is carrying an M249. Most, I think, would agree that the SAW is a big piece of crap. Surely he holds it as a political aside. How well is the U.S. Military guarding their ammo depots these days?
“But the real purpose of these videos is recruitment.”
Great point. I have not seen the video, but I have seen a number of clips. It seems like a star-production (if you will) to recruit followers for AMZ.
Chris,
Still need a copy of that video? I’ll be back in Jordan May 10th and will get you a copy from a friend there, if he doesn’t send it to me sooner.
If you’re interested.
Personally, I think Zarqawi is a figurehead, certainly Loretta Napoleoni’s recent work about Zarqawi-her Iraq scholarship is weak in my opinion, but the info on Zarqawi seems plausible and well documented-is quite intriguing. (That’s “Insurgent Iraq” for those of you who haven’t yet seen it, a problematic title in my opinion)
She certainly makes it clear that Zarqawi did indeed exist and have a somewhat jester-esque role in the royal court of “jihadists.”
I have to say that, personally, I look pretty different when I have a large beard, small beard, or no beard, but I don’t think I look AS different as those various zarqawi photos…
I’m waiting to see the whole video myself as well though. Email me if you want a copy, and if you have any thoughts about continued coverage from the Middle East let me know, we’ve gotten some cameras we’ll be passing off to Iraqi correspondents, so keep an eye at AiB for up-and-coming “videoblogs” in the next month or 2.
catch you later. btw you still in the ME?