In a crucial development, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has been killed in an airstrike north of Baqouba in Iraq, Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is saying right now. Also, later today, Maliki says he will present his candidates for Defense and Interior ministers. These two stories are intricately related.
Details are very sketchy, obviously, as this is breaking now, but Maliki, U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and American commander Gen. George Casey said a reliable tip on Zarqawi's location came in and allowed the U.S. to call in the bombers. The attack occurred last night at about 6 p.m., BBC says, and he may have been betrayed by someone in his inner circle. Zarqawi's body was identified by facial recognition, Casey said.
[ADD 2:57:40 PM +0200 GMT: Intriguing detail: Jordanian intelligence was involved, apparently. No friend of AMZ they, seeing as they had a number of scores to settle with the guy. But considering Jordan's ties with the Ba'athist insurgency, which mostly hated AMZ, this looks more and more like the Ba'athists saw the time had come to turn in AMZ to cement the political deal in Baghdad.]
If true, and this should be a very big conditional, This is a big, big success for the Iraqis and the Americans. Zarqawi wasn't the sole force behind the insurgency, but he was the driving personality behind the jihad aspect of the Sunni fighting, which has much larger influence within the Iraqi insurgency than the size of its roster would suggest. It was his connections that brought in a lot of money from the Gulf, and with that cash and influence was able to bleed off some of the Ba'athists and Iraqi Islamists to his part of the insurgency.
Also, this indicates that bringing the Sunnis into the government seems to has worked. One of the gambles of bringing the Sunnis in was to see if they could start ramping down the violence through tips, turn-ins and general cooperation. That has always been the central question: Do the Sunnis in government have control over their factions in the insurgency? I've argued here that they don't, but if today's news is true, I may very well need to admit I was wrong on that. Gut feeling is that I was.
Casey said they got information on the safehouse where Zarqawi was hiding from local tips, so that indicates the Sunnis have started cooperating with Maliki's government, which means this government may hold up after all. But it is important to realize that this will not end the insurgency. It has numerous factions, not all who are loyal to Zarqawi (obviously, since someone tipped the Americans off.) And it won't end the sectarian violence, because Shi'ite death squads are still operating out of the Interior ministry and other police forces and many Sunni insurgents are not foreign jihadis. They have their own fight with the mainly Shi'ite Maliki government, which they see as a tool of Iran. Remember how happy everyone was after Saddam was captured? And remember how it just kept getting worse and worse?
But it is also significant that Maliki says he will announce his new Defense, National Security and Interior minister later today. (He declined to give their names at the press conference on Zarqawai, saying that would wait until the parliamentary meeting in the afternoon.) This indicates to me that the Defense and Interior slots have been being held open as a carrot for Sunnis to start bringing their fighters to heel. Now that the Sunnis have delivered a big prize in Zarqawi's alleged corpse, it's time to reward them with a big post. Will they get both Interior and Defense? No. In fact, Reuters is already reporting that Interior will go to Shi'ite Jawaad al-Bolani, formerly of the Fadhilla Party, and Defense will go to Sunni Gen. Abdel Qader Jassim.
Al-Bolani is an interesting choice, because he is reportedly a former Army colonel under Saddam and has been affiliated with numerous factions in Shi'a politics, including Ahmad Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress and Sheikh Karim Al-Mohammadawi, the "Prince of the Marshes," a local Shi'ite boss in the south opposed to Iran, Chalabi and sometimes -- but unreliably -- allied with Moqtada al-Sadr. Mohammadawi is reliably in favor of Mohammadawi. Jassim, a Sunni, is currently the commander of the Iraqi ground forces and has worked closely with the Americans. He also was the general who advised Saddam to withdraw from Kuwait in 1991, further endearing him to Washington.
Both choices seem likely to be approved, or at least not opposed, will be supported by the Sunnis, as neither is closely tied to Iran. (The former Interior Minister, Bayan Jabr, was tied with the Badr Organization neé Corps, which is still closely connected with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.)
[ADD 2:18:08 PM +0200 GMT: Going back through some old notes, I found a brief interview I did with al-Bolani in January 2005, before the first elections, when he was president of the Shi'a Political Council, a rival group to the United Iraqi Alliance. At the time, he said he didn't think the constitution will be based on Islamic shari'a, even though Islamic parties are calling for this. "Democracy is a strange idea in Iraq, but democracy is a demand of everyone," he said. "I can assure you there are many Islamic political movements that don't want government like Iran's. But this Islamic identity and the Islamic traditions cannot be removed from this country. … So I think the Iranian system will never happen in Iraq, and most Islamic movements agree wth me on that." That will please the Sunnis and the Americans.]
So now we'll have to wait and see what happens in the coming days and weeks. There will no doubt be a flare of violence thaht could last up to a week or so, but after that, If the level of violence starts to decrease, then that means the Sunnis are playing ball. Now it is time for the Shi'ites to curb their militias; that's the deal. If that doesn't happen, expect the Sunnis to let their fighters loose again.
[UPDATE 5:49:39 PM +0200 GMT: DefenseTech has a good roundup of news on Zarqawi, including links to the video of the bombing run.]
[UPDATE 6:18:34 PM +0200 GMT: The story I did for TIME Magazine is here.]
[UPDATE 7:05:36 PM +0200 GMT: Right on schedule. Several suicide car bombs have gone off in Baghdad killing an unknown number of civilians.]
Terrific analysis.
And the military press briefing said that 17 raids were made on AlQ cells immediately after Zarqawi had been identified! A lot of body blows there.
Yes, a big success for the Americans and the Iraqi Govt in the offing. Maliki going to the Parliament and nominating his crucial ministers straight after making the announcement was nothing short of brilliant.
As for the Shiite death squads - they were formed under the severe provocation of the Baathist Sunnis and their AlQ chums murdering tens of thousands of them them in the most brutal way - and this after 30 years of persecution at Saddam’s direction. If the Baathists finally accept majority rule then there won’t be any need for retaliatory death squads.
Iran is the country holding the spanner - but the US’s extraordinary offer to them only yesterday … a coincidence? Somehow I don’t think so. The tectonic plates moved in April 2003 and now we see the fallout, imo.
Watch for Bush to seize the moment.
I can’t find myself believing these rosy scenarios. (I know, pretty pale as rosiness goes, but even so.) There is such violent hatred loose in Iraq that all this sounds to me like nothing but ripples on the tsunami. The death of any one person, or even any single movement, Al-Qaeda or anyone else, will just create a brief vacuum that’ll soon be filled.
But then, I always have been too pessimistic. I sure hope it works out as you say. The Iraqis could sure use a quieter life.
Military Plays Up Role of Zarqawi, WaPo, April 10, 2006
A dead PsyOps campaign will not change the facts on the ground.
This discussion of al-Bolani (including an exclusive interview!) is the best I’ve seen.
My profile of him at profcutler.com also notes the implications for the recent battles for control in Basra. See profcutler.com.
On Zarqawi, I think his death marks the demise of the ideological “mirror image” of the Bush administration Neocons/Right Zionists. To see what I mean, go to my post Zarqawi and Zion
THEY GOT THE BASTARD!
Let his assassination serve in honor of Eugene Armstrong, Paul Johnson, Jack Hensley, Nicholas Berg, Kenneth Bigley, Shosei Koda, Fadhel Ibrahim, Firas Imeil, and all of the other innocents that this S.O.B. and his sick followers and imitators murdered.
Certainly, the violence won’t end with this.
And whether Zarqawi was a mere figurehead or the actual perpetrator behind many deranged acts is really not important.
What’s important is that this serves as a reminder to all those who would lend their names and actions to the cause of despotism and religious and political intolerance that they can’t win against a society of free people.
I want to see who the next one is who’ll step up to fill this idiot’s shoes.
But beyond that, it’s time now to bring the clamps down on the mother of all idiots, Osama bin Laden
For b, I’ll add: If this is just a U.S. military PSYOP campaign, as you suggest, where did Zarqawi get these Zarqawi loyalists that the Washington Post article you referenced mentions?:
“U.S. authorities claim some success with that effort, noting that some tribal Iraqi insurgents have attacked Zarqawi loyalists.”
That doesn’t make sense. Can you have Zarqawi loyalists without a Zarqawi?Maybe, granted his loyalists are deluded or fooled by your supposed PSYOP campaign. But it makes your conspiracy theory look pretty weak, doesn’t it?
Z was an evil murderous man and for that reason alone his death should be welcome.
“Iran is the country holding the spanner - but the US’s extraordinary offer to them only yesterday … a coincidence? “
It wasn’t yesterday, it was last week. Probably a co-incidence, but Iran is more likely to accept the offer as a result of this.
It is possible that Z’s role in the insurgency has been inflated (personally I think so too) by both AQ and the US, but in any case this has to be a blow to morale and funding among the insurgents.
Remarkable news. Whatever you thought about the war, I can’t imagine anyone being less than overjoyed now that the head-chopping maniac is out of the picture. Iraq’s prospects for peace just got that much better.
I look forward to the day that I can go and see one of the historic cradles of civilization.
“america, hello.
you will never kill me. nor will i ever die.
why you say? because i never existed.
that’s why.
i’m an illusion. a figment of your imagination.
and i’m everywhere. under your bed. behind that tree. over those hills. i’m in kurdestan. in basra. on a barge in the jordan river. and in a saudi minaret. calling the faithful to prayer.
and i’m nowhere at all.
not in fallujah nor haditha or hit. nor do i have an appointment in samarra. and i’m certainly not in the baghdad morgue. so cold, so still, so dead.
sorry.
i hope you’re not disappointed. but as a consolation, i’ll live on in your minds.
which is where i’ve always been”.
Matt - you’re right of course. Had it at the top of my mind because the night before heard a journo on radio outlining the details of the offer.
Maybe a coincidence - but it seems to me US policy has been operating on converging tracks since the beginning of the year … eg getting the unity Iraqi Govt in place and laying the groundwork for a dialogue with Iran. It was only last month the US announced it was restoring full dip relations with Libya after 25 years… a timely signal to the Persians.
Getting the bead on Zarqawi came just at the right time.
quixote - taking the rose colored glasses off - if it was the Baathists who coughed up Zarqawi, then Christopher’s analysis is probably rght. On the other hand, it might just have been disinformation.
Whatever, it is the 17 raids - who they captured and the info they get from them - that is the most significant part of this story, imo.
Yes a good day for the forces of Democracy in Iraq. Good riddance to bad company. I did find it ironic that the different sources who help set up the “hit” on Zarqawi were referred to interchangeably as traitors, betrayers and Judas. This all coming in the western press. I guess it is all a matter of perspective.
On plus side, I was on vacation for a week and avoided the news for the most, but when I came back I was a little shocked (more so than usual) about the events in Iraq. It seemed that the political situation was in free fall and heading faster and faster to civil war. Certainly the questions arising over the conduct of some American troops was just one more leak in the dam. Now that issue will have a difficult time in the next few days finding traction in the news media. Ah the fickle press running from one story to another. Oh well it’s a cut and paste world any more, its too much trouble for most to connect the dots.
Yes a good day for the forces of Democracy in Iraq. Good riddance to bad company. I did find it ironic that the different sources who help set up the “hit” on Zarqawi were referred to interchangeably as traitors, betrayers and Judas. This all coming in the western press. I guess it is all a matter of perspective.
On plus side, I was on vacation for a week and avoided the news for the most, but when I came back I was a little shocked (more so than usual) about the events in Iraq. It seemed that the political situation was in free fall and heading faster and faster to civil war. Certainly the questions arising over the conduct of some American troops was just one more leak in the dam. Now that issue will have a difficult time in the next few days finding traction in the news media. Ah the fickle press running from one story to another. Oh well it’s a cut and paste world any more, its too much trouble for most to connect the dots.
Now that the optimists have declared victory over “al-Qaida-in-Iraq” (the people who never attacked us), can we leave this vanity war of Bush’s and return to beating up on the people who really hit us (Osama and al-Qaida-in-Afghanistan/Pakistan)?
Now that the optimists have declared victory over “al-Qaida-in-Iraq” (the people who never attacked us), can we leave this vanity war of Bush’s and return to beating up on the people who really hit us (Osama and al-Qaida-in-Afghanistan/Pakistan)?
Let us not forget that the Pentagon had 2 or 3 chances to kill this bastard thousands of deaths ago. They knew where he was (in Kurdish controlled Iraq) but chose to let him stay there and alive so they could claim the thinnest of connections between Saddam and terrorism.
I am glad he is dead, but never forget he could have been dead 3 years ago!! Bush and Rummy let him live to help their propaganda!!
I see the photo which soldiers was very glad . Why was the soldiers glad ? Because the soldiers knew ‘the bad man’ was killed . We know GOD LOVES good person and bad person. We should not be glad when we know somebody was killed. Soldiers, you should learn life ! Life is very important. Soldiers don’t know Life is very important .
Chris,
Good to see that you are still alive and well. I’m also glad to see that you are not still gambling with your life in Iraq. Not sure if you would even remember me. I was one of your early detractors on the B-T-I website, mostly arguing against your anti-Bush slant. I’ve since realized just how big a mistake this whole thing was/is. I was reminded to come back and have a look after watching FRONTLINE last week (they re-ran the episode about the insurgency/resistance). I hope all is well with you and hope to meet you one day when you make it back to New York(or elsewhere in the states) for a more “normal” life.
I think it’s time you wrote a book. Any angles on that?