BEIRUT -- Why, oh, why do people with access to really big bombs continue to think they can change people's loyalties by dropping those big bombs on their homes and families?
Israel's strategy in Lebanon is pretty clear now: Make the pain of "supporting" or "harboring" Hezbollah so great that the Lebanese will deal with the group. That was also the idea behind the attack on Gaza and Hamas as well as the so-called Bush Doctrine -- the U.S. will make no distinction between the terrorists and those who harbor them. It's also the hot air for the trial balloon often floated in D.C. regarding regime change in Iran: Bomb the mullahs and watch the pro-American youth embrace the Pax Americana!
Except... it almost never works. I mean, George Bush was considered barely qualified to make coffee at the White House in August 2001. (Remember that?) And then, boom, 9/11 hit and he's suddenly the best wartime leader since Churchill. Was there a rethinking of American policy on the part of the masses and a call for changing those policies? Or even, dare I say it, removing the Bush Administration from office because the consequences of having a nincompoop in office had grown too painful? Hell, no! Americans rallied around the flag and the leader. In fact, the only incident that I can think of that involved bombs leading to the victims blaming their leaders and punishing them was ... Madrid.
So why do Washington and Tel Aviv think Arabs would react any different? (Maybe a bit of cultural chauvinism?) Did the Iraqis turn on Saddam Hussein through 13 years of sanctions? No. Did the Palestinians turn on Fatah after the start of the 2001 intifada? That's a negative. The Gazans this year? Nope. Will the Lebanese turn on Hezbollah? Not likely, and certainly not in the short term.
Another reason the "bomb 'em and they'll love us" strategy won't work here is that Hezbollah is not the PLO. An historical digression, if you'll allow me: Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 in two attempts to dislodge the PLO from Lebanon, where it was using the country launch attacks on the Jewish state. The Palestinians had developed a state-within-a-state in the south, which was often called "Fatah-land." (Sound familiar?) In 1983, Israel finally pushed the PLO out and Yasser Arafat and his followers fled to Tunisia. Still, the Lebanese war dragged on for another seven years as various militias -- some supported by Israel, others by Syria and Iran -- before finally ending in 1990 from exhaustion. Lebanon was shattered and Israel ended up occupying parts of the country for 22 years, spawning Hezbollah.
This is important. Hezbollah was not started by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It was organized by them out of the disparate Shi'ite groups that popped up to resist the Israeli occupation. Iran helped merge them together, but they're a Lebanese creation.
This means Hezbollah is an indigenous group, not a foreign body like the PLO was. Saying that Lebanon "harbored" Hezbollah is like saying the United States "harbors" white supremacists or anti-government militias. You probably hate them and despise their goals, but you can't they're alien parasites on American society. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, they're an integral if extreme part of the political and social fabric. Ending of expelling Hezbollah is akin to amputation rather than lancing a boil.
I've been in love with Lebanon since 2004 when I took a flat here and began immersing myself in the place whenever I could take a break from Iraq. In March, I settled here for the foreseeable future. I have a wide variety of friends, not just upper-crust Christians, and while I'm not a polling company, I think I have a decent grasp of the zeitgeist here.
Before this damn war, Hezbollah was losing support. It wasn't draining, but it was ebbing. The political process was stuttering along, but it was moving. Many people here hated Hezbollah... Many people also loved it. The society was split but there was a consensus the problem had to be settled judiciously and politically because no one wanted another civil war.
When the first Israeli bombs fell, some Shi'ites even blamed Hezbollah. I met a guy in the southern suburbs last Saturday, just four days after things started. He's a Shi'ite from Nabatiyeh in the south and hated Hezbollah. He thought they'd screwed up big-time. These days, when I talk to him, he says he hopes Hezbollah rips the Israelis apart. Another friend of mine, one of those upper-crust Christians, told me last night that as much as he hates Hezbollah, he hates the Israelis even more now.
The Lebanese are closing ranks in the face of an external threat, just like people all over the world do -- with the exception of Spain, I guess. They're no different from anyone else, and the same thing happened in the initial days of Iraq. The same pattern would play out in Iran, too, if this war gets that far east. The West has no monopoly on unity, patriotism and nationalism.
That said, unity rarely lasts. In the case of America, it led to a polarized public where the public debate seems to involve screaming "traitor!" when someone votes for a Democrat for the school board.
In the Middle East, things rarely stay at that level. Once that unity breaks, we're left with civil war. (See, Lebanon, 1975-1990 and Iraq, 2003-present.) And in civil wars, lots of people die and the situation that needed to be fixed is usually worse. (Does anyone think Iraq is a more stabilizing force than it was?)
Which is why it's important to end these things before they start.
Madrid bombs. Spanish people don’t punish Aznar and their “Partido Popular” for the bombs, punish him for the electoral lie: “Ha sido la ETA” (they have been Basques).
Right now the President is looking at this like he wants to fight war by proxy. We can’t start any more wars ourselves but we can support Israel.
Condi says that we have been experiencing a false peace in the middle east for the last 60 years. She says it’s better to have this new situation which will bring about change. She says appeasing and dealing with extremests is what lead to Sept 11.
On the one hand, Tony Snow say the president is doing the most out of anyone to bring about a diplomatic solution, but on the other hand we’re sending extra weapons to Israel so the war can accelerate.
I grew up 20 miles from both Angola and Zaire so when I see America killing more civilians by proxy it makes me sad.
This is a good analysis. it is clear that israe’s past actions in lebanon has created hizbullah. I dont know about others’ reaction to this latest bombing of lebanon by israel, but it has affected me in that it has alienated me from israel. in the past i can see both sides, but this reaction of israel’s is beyond all reason. to blame and take it out on a whole couuntry and destroy it just because of the actions of a minority in it is just so monstrous. anyone condoning it has to seriously ask themselves whether they have lost all their humanity. Has their hatred for the other side so blinded them to all their senses? Don’t they realise that their actions has made it no wonder Israel is hated so much by others. And this bombing has created a lot more who now hate israel who had been neutral or sympathetic to israel before.
Great explanation Chris.
Perfect, yes it’s always the democratic civilized world’s fault for killing civilians when the fascist terrorists hide behind them in schools, mosques, neighborhoods, hospitals, etc. The way some talk it makes it sound like every anti-fascist, anti-terror force is raping and pillaging to their heart’s content. You know that is not the case. You know that but some would rather vent their frustrations and direct them at a convenient, safe target that will not respond by killing you or your loved ones for your point of view and that’s ok, we can take it. As I said you know and we SURELY know that by and large the civilized forces behave themselves and show respect to civilians and that’s more than any terrorist shows to those they disagree with. There are always a few individuals in any situation such as this that have to screw it up for the rest and IF atrocities committed by anti-terror forces turns out to be true it breaks our hearts as well. A court of law will determine what really happened, not you. People speak of the American media being biased but you do not know all the facts either and some are playing judge, jury and executioner! Trying them in YOUR media is no different. I would tend to agree with you that there are certainly some bad individuals and that coupled with their bad decisions make worse things happen. With that said I don’t believe it is fair to lump all people in general into a single group. Let justice sort them out. Not only will a proper court sort out what happened but they themselves know what happened and no matter what, no matter when, justice will be done. If they are indeed bad people the foul lives they are living will hound them day after day and it will catch up to them. You cannot go against the grain forever.
To try and give a simple example; when you are having ‘one of those days’ where it seems like at every turn the world is against you? Ya sure, some are having them EVERY day lately, we know but hear us out here. It seems like you’re going against the grain, and nothing is going right, you need to figure out a way to get back into the flow. This example is not meant to trivialize the situation but ONLY to provide example. Here I can see this while driving in traffic. You hit every red light, people are pulling out in front of you, driving slow when you want to go faster, driving fast and tailgating you when you aren’t in a hurry, etc. You need to figure out what needs to happen to get back into the flow of traffic, you need to know how to get back in that groove. Bitchin’ and moanin’ may make you feel good in the short term but it solves nothing and alienates others, and in the case of the mid east, others that are literally DYING to be your alley. Constructive criticism is one thing but unbalanced poisonous vitriol is completely another.
Yes we make mistakes, everyone does but what separates us from fascist terrorists is that we admit our mistakes for the WHOLE WORLD to see, try to correct them, try not to repeat them, MOVE ON and not mire ourselves in the past. Our mistakes are used as weapons against us. Whilst fascist terrorists commit atrocity after atrocity and you barely make a peep to condemn as vehemently as you do the people that by and large want to help you. Our rule of law is used against us on a daily basis because terrorists know we have to follow and abide by them and then they try to twist that to their deceitful advantage anytime a non-combatant, which they are hiding behind, is injured or killed.
Regarding atrocities in Abu Ghraib, the deaths in Haditha and the latest news of rapes and killings. While none of this can be condoned or tolorated, what about the atrocities committed by the terrorists? What about the Sunni on Shiite and Shiite on Sunni atrocities? Why don’t you ever condemn that as vehemently? Why is it always the snide comment about what democratic nations did wrong? The sectarian violence predates the founding of democracy yet you blame it all on the anti-terror forces. Some seem to have nothing constructive to say, its just a bitch list. How about offering up something useful? And before you say get out and go home… one of the reasons we’re there in the first place is because one of your leaders for a better part of the 20th century goaded everyone into believing he was sitting on top of piles of WMDs— yet another lie to keep the masses under control. Not to mention as more time goes by the more history shows us that even if there were no WMDs in 2003 he was biding his time and was ready to start production back up the moment the heat was off. History is also beginning to show us that there was more of a terrorist-Saddam regime connection than first believed as well. No they didn’t like one another but they used each other to further their own fascist agendas.
I also can’t believe some people think that individuals that MAY have committed an atrocity be “handed over to the people in the area” because they have been tried in YOUR court of opinion. Why? So the residents can dole out another 7th century beheading or stoning? And you wonder why we don’t understand you. Give respect to get it. Innocent until proven guilty. Try it, you may not like it all the time but it’s the way the civilized world behaves and what separates us from them and it’s why we’re STILL there. You want the “occupiers” to go home? Stand up for yourselves and STOP KILLING EVERYTHING IN SIGHT and we’ll gladly leave.
I, as most Americans, wish for peace and safety for all. Please be well and take care.
Patrick
Patrick,
This is what you, and fellow neo-cons, have reduced America to. ‘We are morally better than the terrorists”, [C]ivilized, I think was the word you used the most often. Its a wonder the word does not stick in your throat as you utter it. Or write it. “Civilized” are we now. How about that? And proffered without a bit of detectable irony! “Civilized”!! Condi Rice and George Bush…guardians of the “civilized” world. There is no end to the nightmare. No low we won’t sink below.
Right on with that point about Madrid. The electoral backlash hit because the administration’s attempt to spin the tragedy were quickly exposed.
Patrick: there’s no moral high ground anymore, dawg. There’s only the question of what’s effective. Killing people’s families in an attempt to change their minds isn’t working.
How about we fucking leave, see what happens then. It’s worth a shot.
a country with an independant militia within its borders will always find a way to have a war. Without said war the independant militia has no reason to justify its existence. It will create a war in proportion to its capability whenever it feels threatened. If the Lebanese citizens choose to keep Hezzbollah and allow them to operate an independant militia within their nation then this is just the first war. There will be another war as soon as hezzbollah feels threatened again. As you noted Hezzbollah was ebbing. Thus you have your first war. The names, dates, places, and publicized reasons may change but the result is always the same.
Shouldn’t these things be obvious to a warchaser such as yourself?
One thing I find baffling here is the change in Israeli tactics. At one time they were masters of the surgical strike- whether it was the rescue at Entebbe; The bombing of Iraq’s nuclear site in 1981; or various assasinations over the years of terror group leadership. They got in; did the job; and got out with a minimum of civilian damage and associated world disapproval. These days they seem to have abandoned that approach in favour of heavy handed brutish attacks and civilians be damned if they get in the way. Surely they must understand that the more you push and bully those who are relatively weak and powerless around the more you increase the support of those who take extreme positions against you? What happened to common sense and pragmatism?
As the War Nerd reminds us, “That’s one feature you’ll find in every bad military plan ever devised: ‘…and then the people will rise up.’” Like Scott, I find the IDF’s actions goes against their previous careful execution. Maybe Murr has been listening to Rumsfeld for too long.
Patrick, you are right that “our mistakes will be used against us.” But Christopher is not talking about mistakes. These methods have become policy with us, and apparently now the IDF.
Fascist terrorists are not going to listen to us. But we live in a democracy where our leaders should listen to all voices of reason. When their deliberate policy is obviously flawed, it is our right, it is our duty to bring up that flaw.
We can’t fight small cells of terrorists hidden among a civilian population with JDAMs from 26,000 feet without becoming terrorists ourselves. The IDF and indeed Mossad have shown a helluva lot more subtlety in the past. It is incumbent upon us to be more subtle, more careful, more judicious; otherwise we become what we fight. We become uncivilized savages willing to kill innocents to achieve our goal.
Frankly, I hope the IDF blows the hell out of all of Hizbollah’s Katyusha rocket launchers using the Cobras we sold them. But to blow out the infrastructure of the entire nation, now reaching communications facilities in the north, and to bomb Lebanese military barracks are mistakes which have driven even the Lebanese enemies of Hizbollah to wish evil on Israel, as Christopher noted.
Scott,
It’s kind of obvious dude. They want what is best for Israel. This means that they do not wish for Lebanon to become another palestinian territory. Nor do they wish for another civil war to sow the chaos in which a group like hezzbollah can prosper. Nor do they wish to give Syria a chance to send in troops. As such, their chosen course of action is to mortally wound hezzbollah in the shortest time possible, do the least possible damage to the urbanites, and withdraw as quickly as possible. Hezz is hoping to bog the Israelis down in a guerilla war but that strategy is based upon a false assumption. It assumes that Israel will attempt to occupy southern Lebanon. They will not. To do so gives Syria an invitation to reassert influence in Lebanon.
Israel will not cross the line from north to south lebanon. If Hezzbollah flees to the north then they will do so without their military assets. Israel bombed the roads and bridges in order to ensure that fleeing hezzbolites would be unable to transfer their assets. If they stay then they will be killed. If they flee then they will do so without their military assets. At which time the Lebanese government will be able to disarm them permanently (if it so chooses).
I love reading all the pundits talking about how Israel is making a mistake. The Israeli vietnam. How Hezzbollah created a win-win war. Yada Yada Yada blah blah blah. It’s all wishful thinking. Israel is going to kill anything that moves in the south and drive the hezzies into the cities. The Lebanese cityfolk have a choice to make. Nurture them back to health and have another war in a few years or deliver the death blow. The hezzies will be mortally wounded when they arrive in Beirut. Their political death will be an easy task for the cedars.
Scott
They said the same about Gaza. How IDF got heavy handed and how Hamas will fight and win. Today I have read that Hamas and all other groups agreed to stop firing qassam rockets into Israel. It seems that israel heavy handed technique is working, isn’t it.
nima
Israel will not march north. it would be counter productive to their interests. It would be a tactical error on Israel’s part to allow a rural enemy to draw them into an urban environment. It would have also been a gross tactical error on Israel’s part to allow the transport of military assets into the cities. Hence the destruction of all transportation and communication routes along with a few strikes in urban areas to remind people that bombs follow weapons.
The balance of power inside Lebanon will be changed in favor of the urbanites. The choices they make, or don’t make, will determine Lebanon’s future.
Quote: Posted by: jonst | July 22, 2006 09:27 PM
Patrick,
This is what you, and fellow neo-cons, have reduced America to. ‘We are morally better than the terrorists”, ©ivilized, I think was the word you used the most often. Its a wonder the word does not stick in your throat as you utter it. Or write it. “Civilized” are we now. How about that? And proffered without a bit of detectable irony! “Civilized”!! Condi Rice and George Bush…guardians of the “civilized” world. There is no end to the nightmare. No low we won’t sink below.
Just as I stated before, bitching, moaning and “neo-con” name calling may make you feel better in the short term but trying to offer up viable solutions is something all together different. Resorting to name calling and trying to bate us into a tirade diminishes us all. It’s a learning process for everyone and insulting someone does nothing more than play further into their hands. I tried to be very careful not to play that game. Please— this is something we all need to stay united for and come up with some sort of compromise.
With that said, let me clear my throat—
civ·i·lize – 1. To raise from barbarism to an enlightened stage of development; bring out of a primitive or savage state. 2. Showing evidence of moral and intellectual advancement; humane, ethical, and reasonable: terrorist acts that shocked the civilized world.
Yes, we’ve all “reduced America” to trying to be civil to one another, ehh-gads! how awful!
And you think terrorists are more or that we are less civilized or we are the same? Are you saying that PURPOSEFULLY lopping the heads of hostages off for all the world to see, that dragging torchered, burning corpses through the streets, that indiscriminately lobbing IEDs and suicide bombers into busy markets, that stoning a person to death for shaving, wearing hair gel or shorts is more or equally civilized than the regret and humility we show, the humanitarian aid we provide and the civilization we have built? If they don’t want to partake of shaving or hair gel, or totem-pole sitting for that matter, that’s fine by me but when you kill someone for it just to exert your power over them, that’s when we have to make a stand. I’d like to debate this more, open and honestly without the snide innuendo because I really don’t see where you’re coming from with that point. We didn’t light this 7th century candle but when it starts burnin’ our ass we’ll damn sure try to put it out.
Quote: Posted by: nima
Patrick: there’s no moral high ground anymore, dawg. There’s only the question of what’s effective. Killing people’s families in an attempt to change their minds isn’t working.
How about we fucking leave, see what happens then. It’s worth a shot
What is effective then? I’m not trying to justify killing anybody. I am saying I think anti-terror, anti- fascist forces do have a moral high ground. Granted, even if you can fly a cruise missile down the chimney of their base (i.e. home, mosque, hospital, etc), it complicates things if that chimney is the same one non-combatants live under or next to. I think we are honestly trying to understand why people allow themselves to seem so blind to the fact that they are being used as human shields. Could it be they might be killed if they do speak out? How civil is that? You’re right, we can’t keep doing it but THEY know that. That’s why they keep provoking and we keep falling for it, but ya, sure, we’re always the bad guys… right. If anti-terror, anti-fascist forces wanted to level an entire country they could, but we don’t because we do indeed have a moral high ground to uphold.
Nobody answered my question of why are the terrorists not ridiculed when they perpetrate hideous acts as vigorously by the same people that seem to want to do nothing but complain about how we screwed up. Why are the people in their midst not more vocal about these atrocities? IF terrorists can’t be reasoned with or their reasons are totally out of the question then what do you suggest we do? IMO we keep on doing what we do best for the benefit of the MOST people, learn all we can and eventually we’ll get all the heads of this hydra. It is unfortunate that bad things have to happen to accomplish it but an uncivilized, fanatical minority are to blame in my opinion for the bulk of the collateral damage. We should not be shouldering a disproportionate amount of the blame for something that has been allowed to brew for more than a millennia.
If we leave, we take a big chance that the guys with the most guns and the least CIVILITY will KEEP control and will need to be dealt with further on down the road. Only problem is, they may be sportin’ a nuke or 2 to back them up the next time.
Thank you for providing a forum for debate. Stay well.
Patrick
moron99,
Hope you’re right, brother/sister. It would indeed be a tactical error on Israel’s part to get sucked into what we got sucked into in central Iraq.
But never mind the “hezzies” dragging what’s left of their Katyusha launchers into urban areas. They don’t need them any more. All they need is their small arms. At this point, they don’t need to turn their wrath on Israel, as Israel now risks becoming the common enemy of the people of Lebanon. As troublesome as I find the concept of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, it is a very common response. Israel risks arousing that response with any excessive force or God forbid invasion.
Agreed?
(Perhaps we should take further discussion out of our host’s hair - follow the link below.)
they have to invade nima. it would be counter productive to their interests not to. Clearly their goal is to get rid of the armed hezzbollah while doing the minimum amount of damage to the process of electoral governance. It is in their interests to see a strong urbanized democracy on their northern border and they will pursue any action to do so. Specifically, they will invade and they will pay little heed to the use of human shields. They need to get in and out before Syria can mobilize any troops.
But how far, moron99? Only as far as the Katyushas can reach. No farther, or they risk arousing that “enemy of my enemy” anger. Bombing anything north of that is stupid. Dead human shields piss off every decent human being from Manchester to Mindanao, and weaken the high moral ground Israel once occupied.
Yes, yes, you get it! A strong urbanized democracy is just what Lebanon needs! It is in Israel’s best interest! Dead Lebanese babies do not further that goal.
Please, let’s leave Christopher’s comments section alone and continue this at my link.
Once the white supremacists and anti-government militias from the United States start launching rockets into Canada and crossing over to abduct soldiers then that analogy might work…
Of course then you’ll have to cover how the feds go after those groups while “Hizbullah” runs amok unchecked.