I'm not really able to blog much as I'm traveling still, but the situation in southern Lebanon is very serious and could spiral out of control very quickly. Some quick thoughts:
- Hezbollah has linked the release of the Shalit and its alleged captives to the release of Lebanese prisoners and Palestinian prisoners. While the Israelis have constantly talked about how Hezbollah is influencing Hamas, and I've had Hezbollah specialists tell me the same, this is the first direct evidence of linkage. An obvious next step is to ask what the connection glue is, and the answer is Iran.
- Olmert has had three soldiers kidnapped in three weeks. He looks weak. He will have to do something. And it will be big.
- This points to a major operation in southern Lebanon and Gaza as a show of strength. Or a deal. But a deal will make Omert look weak, while a major operation will give Hezbollah what it wants: an excuse to keep its weapons and a chance to bog Israelis down in the tar pit of southern lebanon again. (The scars of that still haven't healed there.) Olmert's in an impossible situation.
Right now, the death toll stands at at least seven Israeli soldiers killed, two kidnapped and a tank destroyed. An unknown number of Hezbollah fighters have been killed. Likewise, I've not heard or seen a count of Lebanese civilians hurt or killed.
“….Olmert has had three soldiers kidnapped in three weeks. He looks weak. He will have to do something. And it will be big…. …..Or a deal. But a deal will make Omert look weak….”
chris what exactly does that mean, and why will he look “weak”?
i know the jewish book, the torah, says an “eye for an eye” and its “god” is a vengeful and murderous one who regularly laid waste to everyone and everything, but how long must this go on?
by comparison, india should attack pakistan with its full arsenal of nuclear weapons if it’s behind the train bombings in any way, form or shape. right?
The situation is frightening. At least with Gaza, the Israelis are in a legal and ethical grey zone when it comes to their actions. But with Lebanon, which is a sovereign state, it seems like they’re pushing for all-out war. What will be Lebanon’s reaction? Will anyone else intervene (read: Iran, Syria, U.S.)?
Israel’s main goal is to dismember the Hamas Govt which it seems to be doing at a methodical pace.
To that extent the Hezbollah second front might help it by focussing international attention away from the action in Gaza. Significantly, US instantly pointed to Syria and Iran as the real culprits.
And the Indian terror bombing reminds the West that the war on terror is not figment of George W’s imagination.
Interesting times.
Last month, with a Lebanese friend, I looked out over Shebaa Farms and thought about how peace had perhaps finally come to South Lebanon. This escalation is indeed very frightening. The people of the area I am sure expect no restraint from Israel nor is there any precedent for any.
I keep thinking of something I once heard Alice Walker say: “only justice can stop a curse.”
No sign of justice yet for Palestinians — or for Israelis.