I’m not really able to blog much as I’m trav­el­ing still, but the sit­u­a­tion in south­ern Lebanon is _very_ seri­ous and could spi­ral out of con­trol very quickly. Some quick thoughts:
* Hezbol­lah has linked the release of the Shalit and its alleged cap­tives to the release of Lebanese pris­on­ers and Pales­tin­ian pris­on­ers. While the Israelis have con­stantly talked about how Hezbol­lah is influ­enc­ing Hamas, and I’ve had Hezbol­lah spe­cial­ists tell me the same, this is the first direct evi­dence of link­age. An obvi­ous next step is to ask what the con­nec­tion glue is, and the answer is Iran.
* Olmert has had three sol­diers kid­napped in three weeks. He looks weak. He will have to do some­thing. And it will be big.
* This points to a major oper­a­tion in south­ern Lebanon and Gaza as a show of strength. Or a deal. But a deal will make Omert look weak, while a major oper­a­tion will give Hezbol­lah what it wants: an excuse to keep its weapons and a chance to bog Israelis down in the tar pit of south­ern lebanon again. (The scars of that still haven’t healed there.) Olmert’s in an impos­si­ble sit­u­a­tion.
Right now, the death toll stands at at least seven Israeli sol­diers killed, two kid­napped and a tank destroyed. An unknown num­ber of Hezbol­lah fight­ers have been killed. Like­wise, I’ve not heard or seen a count of Lebanese civil­ians hurt or killed.