Two buses blown up in Christian area

BEIRUT -- Bombs destroyed two commuter buses today in the small Christian community of Ain Alaq, in the mountains north of Beirut.

Reports of fatalities varied, but ranged from three (Red Cross, security forces) to 12 (LBC and other media sources.) Ten to 20 were wounded. The first bomb was apparently attached to the undercarriage of the first bus while the second was in a back seat on the second, according to my fixer, who is trying to find more info. I'll update if this changes.

The wounded were civilians possibly traveling to work, marking a change in the two-year campaign of bombings and assassinations that has wracked Lebanon since the killing of Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Before, the attacks were either targeted assassinations of well-known anti-Syrian politicians and journalists or small bombs exploded in buildings late at night so as to minimize casualties. This seems aimed at Iraq- or Israel-style terror. Random, anywhere, pitiless.

Details are still emerging, but speculation is rampant. Was this Syria? Hezbollah? CIA? (A Hezbollah spokesman said it was the latter.) Was it a warning to the March 14 coalition not to attend the big rally planned for downtown tomorrow to mark the two-year anniversary of Hariri's death?

One intriguing connection is to Elias Murr, Lebanon's defense minister. The buses originated in Bteghrin, the home of the Murr family -- they're the major clan there -- and some have wondered if this could be a response to Murr's refusal last week to return a truck full of Hezbollah weapons intercepted by the Lebanese Army?

Elias Murr was the target of a failed assassination in July 2005.

I'm not convinced of that, as it would be a complete turn-around for Hezbollah, who have not (yet) turned their weapons on their fellow Lebanese -- a point of pride for the group.

Also, the attack happened near Bikfaya, the ancestral home of the Gemayel clan. Several of the dead were Gemayels. Lebanon's industry minister, Pierre Gemayel was assassinated in November.

Michel Murr, the defense minister's father, was at the site of the bombing and said it was a message for all Lebanese to come together and transcend politics. That's a nice sentiment, but it's almost assuredly not the message the bombers were trying to send.

More likely, it was a warning to March 14.

"They are trying to sabotage tomorrow's meeting," said Ahmad Fatfat, the former interior minister. "They are trying to divide the Christians. ... The people who are doing this don't want the people to come together and it's another link in the chain" of assassinations.

"I cannot believe any Lebanese is capable of doing such a terrible thing," he added.

Fatfat also said the bombs were placed on the buses yesterday, although he declined to say how he knew that.

Obviously, Fatfat is not-so-subtlely pointing the finger at Syria. A Hezbollah spokesman said the same thing, but blamed the CIA instead of Syria.

I witnessed this in Iraq, too, by the way, early in the insurgency. In 2004, when the violence was much more sporadic and rare than it is now, Iraqis would often tell me, "These bombs could not come from Iraqis. No Iraqi would hurt another Iraqi. This must be the Israelis or CIA."

There's always a natural tendency to believe that outsiders are the ones doing the killing. Witness the immediate reaction to the Murrah Building in 1995. Everyone immediately suspected Arab terrorism, not home-grown white supremacists.

But right now, especially on the eve of the anniversary of the killing of Hariri, everyone in Lebanon -- Hezbollah, March 14, etc. -- is banking on national unity for their own purposes. "Hariri was for all of us," as many say. Other parties -- Syria, especially, but possibly Israel -- would love to see Lebanese at each others' throats. Syria could use any violence as an "I told you so" excuse to intervene again, and Israel probably wouldn't mind seeing Hezbollah on the defensive in its own country.

(Mind you, I'm not accusing Israel of today's bombing; I'm just analyzing who might stand to gain from Lebanese discord.)

UNRELATED (?) NEWS: The Grand Mufti of Lebanon, Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani, the highest ranking Sunni cleric in country, claims in a press release to LBC that he was heckled and threatened by the pro-Syrian, Hezbollah-led March 8 protesters as he led prayers at Hariri's grave in Martyr's Square downtown today. He says he was told to leave or they would burn his car.

(March 8 is a coalition of mostly Shi'ite parties and some Christians, and includes Hezbollah, Amal, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and the Christian parties of Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh. With the exception of Aoun, they are all solidly pro-Syrian. Aoun just wants to be president and will hitch his horse to whichever wagon he thinks will win.)

Also, in this morning's San Francisco Chronicle, I have a story about the rearming of the Lebanese factions. It might become very relevant after today.