Turkish incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan?

OK. This is odd. My new go-to site on Iraq, IraqSlogger.com, is reporting conflicting reports of a Turkish incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan/Northern Iraq in hot pursuit of PKK fighters.

AP has been reporting that "thousands" of Turkish troops have crossed the border, but various officials are denying it.

Several thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who operate from bases there, two "senior security officials" told the AP.

"It is not a major offensive and the number of troops is not in the tens of thousands," one of the officials, based in southeast Turkey, told The Associated Press by telephone. The officials did not say where the Turkish force was operating in northern Iraq, nor did he say how long they would be there.

The AP has scaled back its estimate, and now says "hundreds" of troops.

DEBKA (grain of salt required) says 50,000 Turkish troops have invaded. The Kurds, obviously, are not pleased.

Massoud Barzani, had sent a personal emissary, Safin Dizai, to Ankara with an urgent warning. Turkish tanks would not be allowed to cross into northern Iraq, he said. The Kurdish peshmerga would repel them. “The people of Kurdistan,“ said the messenger, “would not stand by as spectators if Turkish tanks and panzers entered Kirkuk."

Is this true? I can't tell yet, but I've got some emails and calls out to friends in Kurdistan and I'm waiting to hear. Will let you know if I can find out more.

In the meantime, some thoughts on this: If this report is true -- a big "if" at this point -- it's a marked escalation in the region, obviously. As with most things in the Middle East, there are many, many threads and few things are so clear-cut as many in the West would imagine them to be. ("If A happens, then B must result.")

But, with that caveat, if the Turks really have crossed with hundreds of troops or more, I believe it's a response to the Kurds' threats of pulling out of Iraq because of the oil law, rather than any pretense of chasing the PKK. It's also likely tied up somehow with the current dispute between the military and Erdoğan's soft-Islamist government in Ankara.

But could the US have approved this? If so, the only reason might be to persuade the Kurds to buckle under to Iraq's new oil law. However, If the US agreed to this, they're playing with fire. Like the Iranians next door, who think they can carefully stoke the civil war as a means of bogging down the US, the Americans likely believe they can keep the Turks in check and the Kurds from attacking Turkish forces. But I know the peshmerga, and they're not going to take a few hundred Turkish soldiers in a "security zone" lightly. It will get ugly and out of control quickly.

• If the US didn't agree to this, it's a nightmare scenario. Who to ally with? Turkey as a NATO ally fighting terrorism? The Kurds, who are the only real success story in the Iraqi narrative? If the US takes no side and instead diverts forces to the north to stand between the two sides, where will these troops come from? Baghdad? Anbar? What happens when the US troops leave those areas?

• I expect another Kurdish insurgency in Turkey is in the works. We all know how well that worked out last time.

• I don't think the Turkish government will collapse or a military coup will result. I think instead, the Turkish population will rally around whatever action the Turks take and the government led by Erdoğan will follow the lead and lend its full-throated support.

UPDATE June 7, 11:03:44 AM +0200 GMT: Spencer at TPMmuckracker doesn't buy it, and blames DEBKAfile, which is fair enough. But AP is still sticking to its, er, guns and now characterizes the operation as "hundreds" of Turkish troops in "raids." Curiouser and curiouser.

So many implications. And so little information.

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