Nothing “civil” about it…

BAGHDAD — Reg­u­lar read­ers know I think we’ve been in a low– to medium-grade civil war for some time, with the Feb. 22 Askariya bomb­ing a huge step toward open con­flict. Well, read this by Nir Rosen, who used to write for TIME before he went on to big­ger and bet­ter things. Nir’s a smart guy. Here’s an early, key point he makes:

…Sun­nis were killing Shia civil­ians, and Shia, often under offi­cial cover, were retal­i­at­ing. I asked Haidar if the rumors I’d heard were true — that the Min­istry of Inte­rior had been infil­trated and dom­i­nated by the Badr Orga­ni­za­tion Mili­tia, the mil­i­tary forces of the rad­i­cal Shia Supreme Coun­cil for Islamic Rev­o­lu­tion, or SCIRI. Yes, he said, and added that Min­istry of Inte­rior mem­bers affil­i­ated with Badr were assas­si­nat­ing Sun­nis through­out Iraq. Sunni offi­cers were being removed and replaced by unknown Shias.

This jives with my own report­ing on this, which will be pub­lished tomor­row on TIME​.com.

Ralph Peters: Sucker or Liar?

BAGHDAD — I’m sorry for not post­ing more. Still some latent server trou­bles. But I have to address an issue: Ralph Peters, who is cur­rently traips­ing around Bagh­dad with the 506th Infantry Reg­i­ment 1st Pla­toon of Bravo Bat­tery, 4 – 320 Field Artillery, is, to be blunt, full of shit.
He’s cur­rently a “favorite”:http://www.google.com/search?q=ralph%20peters of the pro-war set, who say we reporters have “agen­das” to under­mine the troops and get our civil war on, ’cause, you know, that makes Bush look bad… or some­thing.
(A quick note on the above link: it’s all con­ser­v­a­tive pub­li­ca­tions. Why is it I, a pro­fes­sional jour­nal­ist, get tarred with a “lib­eral” brush when I have never, ever writ­ten for Mother Jones, the Nation or Granta, etc. But polemi­cists who spend the all their ener­gies crank­ing out pieces for the National Review, Front Page and the New York Post some­how don’t get called “con­ser­v­a­tives” but instead are “truth tellers”? Such a mys­tery.)
Among the claims in his slan­der­ous col­umn: “The Iraqi Army has con­founded its West­ern crit­ics, per­form­ing extremely well last week. And the peo­ple trust their new army to an encour­ag­ing degree.“
The Iraqi Army — and police, for that mat­ter — stood by while Shi’ite mili­tias ran ram­pant through Sunni neigh­bor­hoods. They only took up the secu­rity posi­tions when the Shi’ite cler­ics, includ­ing Moq­tada al-Sadr, had already calmed down the worst of the vio­lence. That’s not “per­form­ing extremely well,” unless by “extremely well,” you mean not con­fronting the ene­mies and keep­ing your head down until it’s safe to come out. That’s usu­ally called “hid­ing.“
He also says we west­ern reporters don’t get out on the streets, which is patently untrue. I don’t get out as often as I’d like, but I do get out. My col­leagues at TIME, who look much less west­ern than I do, get out much more. And, unlike Peters, we don’t travel with a big-ass armed con­voy under the pro­tec­tion of the U.S. mil­i­tary.
He then fur­ther slan­ders Ellen Knick­meyer, of the _Washington Post_, when he says, “Did any West­ern reporter go to that morgue and count the bod­ies — a rough count would have done it — before telling the world the news? I doubt it.“
Well, actu­ally, Ralph, I know Ellen. And yes, she did go down to the morgue. While there are many issues with her story, what is unde­ni­able is that she risked a hell of a lot more than you did when she put her life in jeop­ardy to go down there.
Then he says, “If reporters really care, it’s easy to get out on the streets of Bagh­dad. The 506th Infantry Reg­i­ment — and other great mil­i­tary units — will take jour­nal­ists on their patrols vir­tu­ally any­where.” Well, no, they won’t. Some reporters I know are hav­ing trou­ble get­ting embeds because they’re not the “right” reporters. They don’t write the “right” kind of sto­ries — mean­ing they don’t fol­low the military’s play­book.
It’s more than a lit­tle churl­ish to say, “We’ll take you any­where, as long as you’re not too liberal/French/whatever” and then turn around and crit­i­cize those you refuse to take with you as cow­ards. If they sit­u­a­tion is so rosy, Mr. Peters, why on earth do I need to embed in the first place? Believe me, I’d much rather travel around with­out a mil­i­tary entourage. You tend to get more truth­ful answers from Iraqis when they’re not sur­rounded by sol­diers with big guns, after all.
Then, this guy with a “back­ground as an intel­li­gence offi­cer” goes on to say there’s no civil war because, by gosh, _he_ sure didn’t see any thing like that. And the Iraqis _cheered_ the Amer­i­cans!
Let me try to paint the pic­ture a lit­tle more clearly, Mr. Peters: When Sun­nis cheer the Amer­i­cans, it’s not because things are rosy, it’s because they’re more scared of the Shi’ites than they are of you. Sun­nis in Bagh­dad I’ve spo­ken with have told me they would rather be arrested by the Amer­i­cans than by the gov­ern­ment forces, because at least now the Amer­i­cans won’t tor­ture you _as badly._ They have no love for Amer­i­cans, they just know who is best able to pro­tect them from their neigh­bors.
Yes­ter­day, the gen­eral in charge of the Iraqi Army divi­sion in Bagh­dad was killed by a sniper while he was on patrol. An inves­ti­ga­tion has been opened because there are sus­pi­cions he was killed for being Sunni by one of his Shi’ite troops.
To be blunt: We are as close to full-scale civil war as we’ve ever been. We are one more bomb­ing, mas­sacre or atroc­ity from a national blood­let­ting. But even if that hap­pens, there will be ebbs and flows. Just because peo­ple aren’t curled up in the fetal posi­tion under their beds all the time doesn’t mean there’s not a war on of some kind. In Lebanon, for 15 years, peo­ple went to the beach, cafés, bars and, in gen­eral, tried to live a nor­mal life. For long stretches, a neigh­bor­hood would be calm. And then the shells would come, or a run­ning street bat­tle would break out and civil­ians would go run­ning inside to hide. The vio­lence would even­tu­ally pass, like a break­ing wave, and they would come out into the light. That’s the way war works, and that’s what’s hap­pen­ing in Bagh­dad right now.
Finally, two things: Mr. Peters says he has a back­ground in intel­li­gence. And he says he’s been hitch­ing rides with this unit, rather than being assigned to it. He also makes what may be an unin­ten­tion­ally ironic com­ment when he crit­i­cized Iraqi stringers: “The Iraqi stringers have cracked the code: The Amer­i­cans don’t pay for good news. So they exag­ger­ate the bad.“
First of all, the Amer­i­cans _do_ pay for good news. They have in the past, when _American officers_ wrote sto­ries and paid local papers to run them. These happy tales invari­ably painted a rosier pic­ture than was war­ranted.
Sec­ondly, Gen. George Casey, com­man­der of U.S. troops here, told reporters in a news con­fer­ence three days ago that the pay-for-play pro­gram was on-going. “We were oper­at­ing within our author­i­ties and respon­si­bil­i­ties,” he said, and added that he had not received an order to stop the pro­gram. “And, right now, based on the results of the inves­ti­ga­tion, I do not intend to in the near term.“
Thirdly, just what is Mr. Peters doing here? A for­mer intel­li­gence offi­cer, rid­ing around Bagh­dad, paint­ing a rosy pic­ture? I may just be assum­ing stuff here — hell, if Ralph can do it, so can I — but is Mr. Peters one of those story-planting Amer­i­cans? Was he out get­ting mate­r­ial and pic­tures? And has he taken his skills at writ­ing happy sto­ries to the Amer­i­can pub­lic?
Peters’ lit­tle yarns sure sounds nice, but he sounds either des­per­ately clue­less or will­fully blind. Offi­cials in the Amer­i­can embassy, at least, are very wor­ried that civil war is upon us, and it’s surely no coin­ci­dence that Casey has a rep­u­ta­tion for not want­ing to hear bad news. And so Peters con­tin­ues to think because he rolls around in an armored con­voy and no one takes a shot at him, there’s no civil war. As some­one I’m sure he admires once said, “absence of evi­dence is not evi­dence of absence.“
Rant over. For now.
*CORRECTION:* Slight cor­rec­tion regard­ing my post on Ralph Peters. He is with the 1st Pla­toon of Bravo Bat­tery, 4 – 320 Field Artillery rather than the 506th Infantry Reg­i­ment, which he men­tions far­ther down in his piece. My apologies.

What Politicians Say

BAGHDAD — Lately, there’s been a lot of talk: rec­on­cil­i­a­tion talks, talks about the gov­ern­ment, talks about Sunni-Shi’a part­ner­ship, talk, talk, talk.
Don’t lis­ten to most of it. While many are thank­ful all-out civil war was averted after the vio­lence of the last five days, many oth­ers are still spoil­ing for a fight and now dis­trust their lead­ers. In the south, I just heard, many Shi’a in Kar­bala are very angry over the deci­sion by Moq­tada al-Sadr and the Badr Orga­ni­za­tion to stand down, angry over the pub­lic shows of national unity between al-Sadr and other Sunni lead­ers. My fixer from Kar­bala tells me the mood in much of the south is, “The politi­cians just want to keep their posi­tions and they’re will­ing to sac­ri­fice our lives and our mosques for them­selves.” He was espe­cially alarmed by Grand Aya­tol­lah Ali al-Sistani’s call to form more tribal mili­tias to pro­tect the Shi’a.
Kar­bala is a strong­hold of Sis­tani, who is usu­ally con­sid­ered a mod­er­ate. Chew on that for a while.
He thinks that while this week didn’t spark a full-on con­fla­gra­tion, it will take only one more mas­sacre, one more bomb­ing for this can of gaso­line we call Iraq to burst into flame. I tend to agree with him. The gov­ern­ment talks are point­less unless some­thing is done about the var­i­ous mili­tias that are stak­ing out ter­ri­to­ries and secu­rity port­fo­lios. Sunni police­men patrol west­ern Bagh­dad while Shi’ite Army troops patrol the Shi’ite east­ern half. Mean­while, SCIRI and the al-Sadr Cur­rent com­pete for who can be the most anti-American. They’re barely keep­ing their mili­tias in check. They’re not lead­ers; they’re cap­tives of the pas­sions they inflame.
On the Sunni side, the Mus­lim Cler­ics Asso­ci­a­tion is call­ing for its fol­low­ers to be pre­pared to descend on Bagh­dad and pro­tect their com­rades and their mosques. Weapons are being stock­piled in the west­ern neigh­bor­hoods and road­blocks are going up at the ends of streets.
What Iraqi politi­cians say to U.S. Amb. Zal­may Khalilzad and to Green Zone-based reporters is largely mean­ing­less. What is much more influ­en­tial is what they say to their fol­low­ers through ser­mons in the mosques, their tribal allies and per­ni­cious whis­per cam­paigns. For exam­ple, shortly after Wednesday’s bomb­ing, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim said Khalilzad bore some respon­si­bil­ity. Although he recanted shortly after, the calls for Khalilzad’s expul­sion were as strong as ever in mosques loyal to SCIRI and the Badr Orga­ni­za­tion on Fri­day.
Not to be out­done, al-Sadr said in Basra it made no dif­fer­ence if Khalilzad stayed or left, as long as the occu­pa­tion remains.
“Lis­ten, loved ones, look what the feeble-minded want us to do,” he said in Basra. “They want us to expel the U.S. ambas­sador. No, we want to expel the occu­pa­tion, not the U.S. ambas­sador.” He added: “Whether the U.S. ambas­sador leaves or not, what will that do if the head of the snake remains here? Cut off the head of the snake, then the entire evil will go away. So we want the occu­pa­tion troops to leave Iraq, even accord­ing to an objec­tive [mawdu’i] timetable, as they call it.“
For the last 18 months, we’ve been in a low-grade civil war. The Askariya bomb­ing kicked us up to “medium-grade,” I guess you might call it. Both Sun­nis and Shi’a I’ve spo­ken with are wait­ing and prepar­ing for it, and that very prepa­ra­tion might make for a self-fulfilling prophecy. For to many Iraqis, it’s only a mat­ter of time.

Attack on Doura

BAGHDAD — Well, maybe “I spoke too soon”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2006/02/dodging_a_bulle.php.
As I type, the mixed neigh­bor­hood of Doura, to the south of me, is reel­ing under a mor­tar bar­rage. The refin­ery there is on fire, it looks like. Fif­teen peo­ple have been killed and 45 wounded as of last count. I have no idea how many mor­tars have landed, they’ve been so numer­ous. The sky is abuzz with Coali­tion chop­pers and Iraqi Army units have been seen cross­ing the Two-Story Bridge from Kar­radah to Doura.
Doura itself is a mixed neigh­bor­hood, with both Sunni and Shi’a res­i­dents. For months now, it’s been a very nasty place and it’s the cur­rent HQ for Al Qaeda in Iraq fight­ers in Bagh­dad. You don’t go to Doura unless you’re look­ing for trouble.

Dodging a Bullet?

BAGHDAD — We may have dodged the bul­let.
Read­ers of this blog in recent days know that I’ve been very alarmed about the vio­lence going around me. I don’t live in the Green Zone, so I’m not insu­lated from it as much as they are, and I don’t give much heed to diplo­matic happy talk. But so far today, it seems quiet around Iraq and politi­cians seem — for the moment, at least — to have con­vinced their fol­low­ers to stand down. The Sun­nis have made noises about com­ing back to the nego­ti­at­ing table and that’s a good sign. There also was no evi­dence of any con­flict between var­i­ous parts of the secu­rity forces, which was a chief con­cern of mine, con­sid­er­ing how deeply embed­ded the var­i­ous mili­tias are to the police, Army, etc.
But still… The cur­few is due to lift tomor­row morn­ing at 6 a.m. Bagh­dad and its sur­round­ing towns are still piano-wire tense. The poten­tial for may­hem remains high. That said, I hope we won’t see a resump­tion of vio­lence tomor­row, despite the car­nage of the past four days.
It is as yet impos­si­ble to tally up the death and destruc­tion, but many (mostly Sunni) shrines and mosques have been either occu­pied and reded­i­cated, dam­aged or destroyed. At least 200 peo­ple have been killed across the coun­try and it’s prob­a­bly higher. I sim­ply don’t believe the Iraqi “government’s” asser­tions that only a few mosques were dam­aged and the loss of life much less than reported in the “exag­ger­at­ing” media. The track record for truth-telling by Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s “gov­ern­ment” is too tar­nished to take their sooth­ing words too seri­ously.
But, as I said, per­haps we dodged a bul­let on this. I said in an ear­lier post that we would be very, very lucky to avoid a civil war. Well, we may have got­ten so lucky.
This time.