Showdown Looming

JUST OUTSIDE NAHR EL-​BARED REFUGEE CAMP — Just at the edge of this now dev­as­tated refugee camp, the Lebanese Army is show­ing signs of prepar­ing for a show­down with the “Fatah al-​Islam jihadist group”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2007/05/more_violence_and_an_update_on.php.
Trucks full of ammu­ni­tion have been seen rum­bling north on the road from Tripoli toward the camp. Many of the Pales­tin­ian refugees who are able to leave have left, leav­ing fewer civil­ian tar­gets to be hit — although the toll on that end is already crush­ingly high, too high for a peo­ple who have seen noth­ing but pain and hard­ship since 1948.
Since 4:30 p.m. Tues­day, an infor­mal truce has held between the mil­i­tants still holed up in the camp and the Lebanese army, but Fatah al-​Islam has vowed to fight “until the last drop of blood” (usu­ally a sign that they’re get­ting close to the last drop) and the Lebanese Defense Min­is­ter Elias Murr told al-​Arabiya tele­vi­sion: “Prepa­ra­tions are seri­ously under way to end the mat­ter. The army will not nego­ti­ate with a group of ter­ror­ists and crim­i­nals. Their fate is arrest, and if they resist the army, death.“
At the moment, it’s still quiet up here. But it’s unclear how long that will last.

For those living in and near Palestinian camp, an escape

NAHR EL-​BARED, Lebanon — Ali Said Mear­bani, 64, mopped his brow and grate­fully accepted a cool glass of water offered to him by a worker in the café. Mear­bani had more rea­sons to be thank­ful, though. He had just escaped Lebanon’s lat­est war zone.
Mear­bani lives in the vil­lage of Ard al Hamra, which bor­ders Nahr el-​Bared, the teem­ing Pales­tin­ian camp that for the last three days has been bru­tal­ized by a vol­ley of tank shells, 155mm mor­tar rounds and machine gun fire from the Lebanese Army, which is in a fierce bat­tle with Fatah al-​Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group.
Early Sun­day morn­ing, his four-​story home was invaded by the jihadis, who forced him, his wife, his three daugh­ters and his daughter-​in-​law into the base­ment before tak­ing up sniper posi­tions on his roof.
“They told us, ‘We won’t leave unless we’re dead,’” said Mear­bani as he jug­gled cell phone calls from con­cerned rel­a­tives.
Three of the four were for­eign, he said, say­ing he could tell from their accents that one was from Saudi Ara­bia, one was from Yemen and one was Sudanese. He said he couldn’t tell where the fourth was from.
Finally, after a ter­ri­fy­ing night with his chil­dren hud­dled around him while shells fell around them, the women in the fam­ily — his wife and his daughter-​in-​law — went up to beg the Fatah al-​Islam mil­i­tants to leave them in peace.
They refused and soon the Lebanese Army was shelling his home. He only escaped because he had a friend in the Lebanese Army and was able to tell him where they were and what check­point he was near. The friend, a sergeant, told him to wear a white T-​shirt so the Army would know he meant no harm. He did, and the Army spir­ited him out to safety.
Lebanese and not a Pales­tin­ian, he praised the Army for fir­ing on every sniper posi­tion Fatah al-​Islam had taken up.
“Even when they were hid­ing in a mosque,” he said, “the army shot at the mosque.“
Walk­ing out of his home and through his vil­lage, he said he passed at least 10 dead bod­ies. “They were not from the camp, so I assume they were ter­ror­ists.“
Such scenes will be increas­ingly com­mon when Lebanon’s lat­est vio­lence even­tu­ally winds down. By the end of the day Tues­day, the death toll stood at about 67 peo­ple and thou­sands of refugees were stream­ing from the camp wav­ing any­thing col­ored white.
At least 30 Lebanese Army sol­diers, 18 mil­i­tants and 19 civil­ians have been killed since Sun­day in the worst vio­lence to hit Lebanon since the end of its 197590 civil war, accord­ing to Army and Pales­tin­ian sources.
One civil defense worker in charge of col­lect­ing bod­ies, who gave his name only as Mazen, said there were “lots of bod­ies” just inside the north entrance to the camp where Fatah al-​Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group with an al Qaeda-​inspired ide­ol­ogy and pos­si­ble ties to Syria, was hold­ing out against hun­dreds of Lebanese troops. He didn’t know, how­ever, if they were fight­ers or civil­ians.
For the past three days, Fatah al-Islam’s posi­tions have been ham­mered by 155mm mor­tars, tank blasts and 50-​caliber machine gun fire from the army, but so far they seem to be hold­ing fast.
As the worker moved to col­lect more bod­ies, Lebanese troops rolled up to the secured entrance to the cheers of dozens of young men from the the sur­round­ing area. Atop their armored per­son­nel car­ri­ers, the sol­diers grinned and flashed vic­tory signs.
Khoder Taleb, 36, the regional man­ager for the civil defense forces, said Fatah al-​Islam had “hun­dreds” of fight­ers and that many were for­eign. He said that two bod­ies around the cor­ner, near the check­point and which reporters were not allowed to see, were burned because of an explo­sion, but their iden­tity papers on them said they were Bangladeshis. There was no way to con­firm this.
Another civil defense worker showed this reporter a photo of one of the bod­ies on his cell phone he said he had snapped and offered to take the reporter’s phone to snap more pho­tos of the bod­ies. Taleb pre­vented him from doing so, how­ever.
Around mid-​day, a United Nations con­voy entered Nahr el-​Bared loaded with food, water, med­i­cine and even gen­er­a­tors for the camp, which has been cut off from most sup­plies since the fight­ing started on Sun­day. Taleb al Sal­hani, a secu­rity offi­cer for the con­voy, said he was wait­ing for a cease-​fire to be put in place before he would send his trucks in.
It was in vain, how­ever, as when a truce appeared to be in place by late after­noon, his con­voy was attacked while it was in the camp unload­ing its good. Robin Cook, Lebanon direc­tor for the UNRWA, said seven trucks went in, but three were dis­abled and were aban­doned in the camp.
The Pales­tini­ans aren’t much liked by the Lebanese, who often blame them for start­ing the civil war in 1975. Pales­tini­ans, in turn, aren’t too fond of the Lebanese who host them because Beirut won’t grant them cit­i­zen­ship or allow them to work in almost 70 pro­fes­sions, con­sign­ing most of the 350,000 refugees to poverty.
Tuesday’s fight­ing con­tin­ued inter­mit­tently through­out the day, with a long truce start­ing at about 4:30 and appar­ently hold­ing so far through the night. Up to 10,000 pan­icked and mis­er­able Pales­tini­ans have taken this oppor­tu­nity to flee to another nearby refugee camp, Bed­dawi, also near Tripoli. Many hung white sheets from their vehi­cles or held white plas­tic bags out the win­dows. So des­per­ate to escape that many were dri­ving on flat tires.
By all accounts, they’re flee­ing what many Pales­tini­ans call a mas­sacre.
Between 30,000 and 40,000 peo­ple are wedged into a tiny area, barely a few square miles in size. Fatah al-​Islam has taken over build­ings in the area and in sur­round­ing ham­lets, often with­out fully eject­ing the fam­i­lies liv­ing there. The Lebanese Army, in turn, is shelling those build­ings, and often reduc­ing them to rub­ble.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has said that dozens of build­ings have been destroyed with the res­i­dents inside. The total num­ber of casu­al­ties has so far been impos­si­ble to deter­mine, how­ever, as the Lebanese Red Cross has not been inside the camp yet. Joseph Boutrous, the North Dis­trict chief of logis­tics for the LRC, said his men had man­aged to get to hos­pi­tals 17 wounded civil­ians on Mon­day and 10 wounded by mid-​day Tues­day.
“We have 15 cars wait­ing to go in if we get a cease fire,” he said, sur­rounded by eager men ready to go in.
Later that day, a ten­ta­tive truce took hold and his men took off. There is as yet no con­fir­ma­tion on the num­ber of civil­ians wounded or killed.

Death of a Scientist

Some bad news of a per­sonal nature out of Iraq today. A sci­en­tist friend of my for­mer fixer in Iraq was shot and killed in traf­fic Mon­day:

BAGHDAD — A lead­ing Iraqi aca­d­e­mic and promi­nent hard­line Sunni polit­i­cal activist was fatally shot by three gun­men Mon­day as he was leav­ing his Bagh­dad home, police said.
The killers escaped in a car after gun­ning down Essam al-​Rawi, head of the Uni­ver­sity Professor’s Union and a senior mem­ber of the influ­en­tial Asso­ci­a­tion of Mus­lim Schol­ars, accord­ing to police Lt. Maitham Abdul-​Razaq.
The asso­ci­a­tion is a Sunni orga­ni­za­tion believed to have links to the insur­gency rag­ing against U.S. forces and their Iraqi allies. The group has boy­cotted elec­tions and stood aside from the polit­i­cal process.
An asso­ci­a­tion offi­cial con­firmed the killing of al-​Rawi, a geol­o­gist, say­ing he was behind the wheel of his car and had just left his home for the drive to work at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity accom­pa­nied by two body­guards.
The gun­men drove in front of al-Rawi’s car, forced it to stop, then sprayed it with auto­matic weapons fire, said the offi­cial, who spoke on con­di­tion of anonymity because he feared reprisal. One of al-Rawi’s body­guards was killed and the other was wounded, the offi­cial said.

I wrote about Dr. Al-​Rawi in June 2004 for Seed Mag­a­zine, shortly after I got back to Iraq. I don’t remem­ber if the story ever ran or not as there was a pay­ment dis­pute, but here’s the story I wrote:

The sci­en­tists among the shell cas­ings
BAGHDAD — Dr. Isam al-​Rawi, a geol­o­gist at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity, sweeps his hand over a set of dog-​eared jour­nals. The arc of his ges­ture con­tin­ues on to include a bare lab­o­ra­tory with a few slices of rock sam­ples, a sag­ging chair and a drip­ping sink. The room is mean, long and nar­row, with barely enough room for a col­league to squeeze past al-​Rawi car­ry­ing a tray of glasses filled to their chipped rims with Sprite. Finally his hand returns to the jour­nals and books, and he points an accus­ing fin­ger at them.
“I am a uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sor,” he says. “I need books!“
Indeed, he needs a lot more than that, but few things sum up the cur­rent state of Iraq’s sci­en­tific cri­sis more than its lack of books and jour­nals. Al-Rawi’s most recent acqui­si­tion is a pho­to­copied ver­sion of the 1998 edi­tion of the Atlas of Rock Form­ing Min­er­als, which he bought in Libya on his last trip out­side Iraq. His most recent jour­nal, a copy of the Geo­log­i­cal Soci­ety of Amer­ica Bul­letin, dates to August 1985. To a one, his books and jour­nals are old, out of date and falling apart, much like the country’s sci­en­tific com­mu­nity itself.
Before the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq’s sci­en­tists were some of the most respected in the region and they made a good liv­ing. The country’s uni­ver­si­ties churned out engi­neers, tech­ni­cians and Ph.D.s. They often did post-​graduate work in the West and had access to the world’s sci­en­tific lit­er­a­ture. They trav­eled to sci­en­tific con­fer­ences all over the world.
But things started to get bad in the mid-​1980s when the Iran-​Iraq war was rag­ing; Sad­dam Hus­sein began restrict­ing access to sci­en­tific jour­nals. After the dis­as­trous 1991 war and the impo­si­tions of sanc­tions, things took an even graver turn. Salaries plum­meted. Al-Rawi’s monthly income went from about $2,000 a month before the 1991 war to about $400 a month. New sci­en­tists and pro­fes­sors earned about $100 a month. They could not travel; they could not sub­scribe to peri­od­i­cals, as they were for­bid­den by the sanc­tions régime. New books were too expen­sive. Much needed equip­ment, which was often marked as “dual use,” was pre­vented from enter­ing the coun­try. The Mid­dle East’s most advanced sci­en­tific com­mu­nity was effec­tively sealed up in a time cap­sule.
But now, even with most of the restric­tions gone, things are still hard 15 months after Sad­dam Hus­sein was removed from power. While sci­en­tists are no longer pre­vented from order­ing new books and jour­nals and are allowed to leave the coun­try, they often can’t for the sim­ple rea­son that they have no money to do so. And a sin­is­ter series of killings has ter­ri­fied and dec­i­mated the sci­en­tific com­mu­nity. In mid-​June, Sabri Al-​Bayati, pro­fes­sor of telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions at the col­lege of Sci­ence and Edu­ca­tion at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity was shot dead near his home in the Bab Al-​Athamiya area in cen­tral Baghdad.‏ A few days pre­vi­ously, a physi­cian, Dr. Mohammed Abdul­lah Faleh al-​Rawi (no rela­tion), was killed while sit­ting in traf­fic. Their deaths are just two of about 250 uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sors, med­ical doc­tors and engi­neers who have been killed since May 1, 2003.
“No one knows why, no one knows who,” al-​Rawi says, and flicked his prayer beads back and forth.
In such an envi­ron­ment, there is no work on new research, says Dr. Nuhad Ali, a mechan­i­cal engi­neer at the uni­ver­sity. The only money being spent is to keep up the salaries of the pro­fes­sors, and the only new equip­ment are some com­put­ers paid for with the now-​defunct oil-​for-​food pro­gram. The uni­ver­si­ties aren’t even accept­ing new grad­u­ate stu­dents, Ali says. All cur­rent grad­u­ate stu­dents, who used to receive a monthly stipend, were enrolled before the war.
But not all is hope­less, two solid state physi­cists, Dr. Izzat al-​Essa and Dr. Raed al-​Haddend, says they had been able to attend the Saudi Solid State Physics con­fer­ence in Riyadh in March. The praised the lift­ing of travel restric­tions, but says it was still very expen­sive.
Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity was also lucky. Almost every other uni­ver­sity in the coun­try was looted in the civil unrest fol­low­ing the fall of Bagh­dad. But Amer­i­can troops decided to bivouac on the cam­puses of Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity and the nearby Al-​Nahrain Uni­ver­sity néé Sad­dam Hus­sein Uni­ver­sity. Their pres­ence pre­vented the whole­sale loot­ing of every­thing down to elec­tri­cal fix­tures that was going on just across town at al-​Mustansiriya Uni­ver­sity.
So now the sci­en­tific com­mu­nity must rebuild with lim­ited finan­cial resources in a secu­rity vac­uum. It’s no won­der there’s an abid­ing sense of hope­less­ness among the pro­fes­sors. Al-​Essa and al-​Haddend dream of X-​ray machines, elec­tron micro­scopes and FT-​IR spec­trom­e­ters. Al-​Rawi wants to replace his 1974 X-​ray flu­o­res­cence machine so he can ana­lyze some rock sec­tions he recently took near Perispike in the Kur­dish area of north­ern Iraq. Dr. Emad T. Bakir, an indus­trial chemist with a spe­cialty in poly­mers, hopes for research assis­tants, cat­a­lysts and sol­vents.
But the money is sim­ply not there. The for­mer admin­is­tra­tor for the now-​dissolved Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity L. Paul Bre­mer III was found of say­ing, “Iraq is a rich coun­try that is tem­porar­ily poor.” The new gov­ern­ment is inher­it­ing many of Iraq’s old debts, includ­ing $29.8 bil­lion for war repa­ra­tions to Saudi Ara­bia and Kuwait, but the Tran­si­tional Admin­is­tra­tive Law, which is the work­ing con­sti­tu­tion for the interim gov­ern­ment, for­bids deficit spend­ing. All min­istries, includ­ing the Min­istry of Higher Edu­ca­tion, headed by Dr. Taher Kha­laf Jabur al-​Bakaa, are feel­ing the vice grip of national poverty. The min­is­ter doesn’t even have a bullet-​proof vest; he can’t afford one.
But if Iraqis are good at any­thing, it’s hop­ing. The sci­en­tific com­mu­nity is no excep­tion. Fuel­ing this hope is a promise promise from Bre­mer. Before he left June 28, he said he would attempt to increase com­mu­ni­ca­tions between Amer­i­can sci­en­tists at uni­ver­si­ties and their Iraqi coun­ter­parts. An Iraqi del­e­ga­tion recently returned from the Uni­ver­sity of Okla­homa whose pres­i­dent Bre­mer went to school with.
“We hope our friends in Amer­ica and Eng­land will come to see what has hap­pened to us,” says al-​Rawi.

It should be noted that almost all of the mur­ders of uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sors have gone unsolved. Al-​Rawi was work­ing to change that when he became a vic­tim himself.

Haggling over Amnesty

Muham­mad over at Iraq the Model blogs on the seven (or six) insur­gent groups com­ing in from the desert and propos­ing a truce.
He doesn’t really add much to my pre­vi­ous post, but he does have an inter­est­ing comment:

So far, every­body in Iraq feels good about Maliki’s plan and expressed their hopes for it to meet suc­cess and ease the suf­fer­ing of the Iraqi peo­ple; every­body except for the Sadrists and the asso­ci­a­tion of Mus­lim schol­ars who both crit­i­cized the plan and said it wasn’t accept­able and expected it to fail.

I’m not in Bagh­dad any­more so I have no idea if “every­body feels good” about the plan. I doubt that’s true, but I’m sure most peo­ple _​want_​to feel good about it. That’s not my point. What’s inter­est­ing is the point he makes about the Asso­ci­a­tion of Mus­lim Schol­ars, which is also the Mus­lim Cler­ics Asso­ci­a­tion “I men­tioned previously”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2006/06/coming_in_from_the_desert.php. The MCA, headed by Harith al-​Dhari has alleged con­nec­tions to the 1920 Rev­o­lu­tion Brigades through al-Dhari’s son, Muthanna, and which is allegedly one of the groups seek­ing a truce. What gives?
I’m not sure at this point, but I sus­pect al-Dhari’s play­ing both sides of the field at this point, with­hold­ing his group’s sup­port for more con­ces­sions from the gov­ern­ment, while dan­gling the 1920 Rev­o­lu­tion Brigades as a tease. Pol­i­tics in Iraq are like hag­gling in a bazaar: out­ra­geous demands, emo­tional appeals, walk­ing away… all just before agree­ing on a final deal. Mid­dle East­ern­ers _​love_​this stuff.
Moq­tada al-​Sadr, who com­mands the loy­alty the Mahdi Army, is cer­tainly doing the same thing. If any­one wants to be declared a legit­i­mate, national resis­tance who should get amnesty for killing U.S. troops, it’s those guys. Not only are they guilty of “killing Amer­i­can Marines in Najaf”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2004/08/inside_the_imam_ali_shrine.php, they’re also heav­ily enmeshed in the Shi’a-on-Shi’a vio­lence in Basra as they “jockey for posi­tion against their rivals”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2005/08/clashes_between_badr_and_sadr.php, the Badr Orga­ni­za­tion and the Fadul­lah Party. Have they killed Iraqis? Yes. Will they get their amnesty? Answer hazy; ask again later.

Coming in from the Desert?

Inter­est­ing. The day after PM Nouri al-​Maliki intro­duced his “plan for national reconciliation”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2006/06/english_version_of_reconciliat.php, seven insur­gent groups from the Ba’athist/Nationalist side of the insur­gency have report­edly con­tacted the Iraqi gov­ern­ment in order to offer a truce.
The groups include the 1920 Rev­o­lu­tion Brigades, the Muham­mad Army (jaysh al-​Muhammad), Abtal al-​Iraq (Heroes of Iraq), the 9th of April Group, al-​Fatah Brigades, and the Brigades of the Gen­eral Com­mand of the Armed Forces. The sev­enth group was not named by the Shi’ite leg­is­la­tor who says these groups are seek­ing the cease-​fire.
The 1920 Rev­o­lu­tion Brigades is allegedly led by Muthanna al-​Dhari, son of Sheikh Harith al-​Dhari, who is head of the Mus­lim Cler­ics Asso­ci­a­tion, a hard-​line Sunni group. Harith al-Dhari’s grand­fa­ther was a lead­ing fig­ure in the 1920 rev­o­lu­tion and allegedly shot the Eng­lish Col. Ger­ard Leach­man, spark­ing the upris­ing against the British in the west. “I’ve writ­ten about _​jaysh al-​Muhammad_​before”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2005/10/a_note_on_jaysh_almuhammad.php, and you can read about its place in the greater insur­gency.
And here’s a chart from Intel­Cen­ter “show­ing the link­ages between the var­i­ous groups”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/Files/Iraqi-InsurgentsLinks13Feb2006.jpg (283KB .jpg).
As for the four other groups, I con­fess I don’t have a lot of data on them.