Shellings and kidnappings

Today was a bad one. Another friend was kid­napped last night, and this morn­ing a mor­tar shell hit our com­pound. Thank­fully, my friend was released after a day — but he was very lucky. (More details to come tomor­row after he leaves the coun­try.) The mor­tar caused no real dam­age, hamdil­lah, but hit a house near one of the hotels in the com­pound. The explo­sion, in size and inten­sity, sounded exactly like the car bomb that hit the Karma hotel back in May.

Stay­ing here is becom­ing increas­ingly unten­able. There’s talk of TIME mov­ing me up north for a cou­ple of months, which would be a wel­come change, to be hon­est. I’ve not been able to get out of the com­pound, and after the kid­nap­ping, I’m dis­in­clined to even make the attempt. The bot­tom line is I can’t work like this and I’m get­ting more and more frus­trated, as I’ve men­tioned. Hope­fully, by mov­ing to the north for a lit­tle while, my work will improve and so will my state of mind.

More as the sit­u­a­tion devel­ops, but things are chang­ing here in Bagh­dad — for the worse.

UPDATE 2321 +0300 And now a large car bomb with many casu­al­ties — in first reports — has just gone off down the street from our compound.

Moqtada redux

It’s time to set some­thing straight that I should have done a while back. In a “pre­vi­ous post”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000803.php that pissed a lot of peo­ple off, I said, “Mobs are ter­ri­fy­ing, but they’re rel­a­tively easy to deal with if you’re will­ing to kill a lot of peo­ple and say the hell with world opin­ion.” I would have _thought_ most peo­ple would have real­ized that I was _not_ advo­cat­ing killing a bunch of peo­ple; I was say­ing armed mobs like Sadr’s are fiendishly dif­fi­cult to deal with — unless you’re will­ing to say to hell with what other peo­ple think.
Amer­ica and Allawi have shown that, by and large, they don’t care what other peo­ple think. But I didn’t choose words care­fully in the next sen­tence: “The lat­ter is unlikely to be a prob­lem for Allawi and the Amer­i­cans, how­ever; world opin­ion is basi­cally against Moq­tada.” I should have instead said “world opin­ion is not for Moq­tada.” That’s a dif­fer­ent idea that I wrote and that was my mis­take.
What I meant is this: Lib­eral democ­ra­cies, mostly what we call “The West,” are usu­ally pretty uncom­fort­able with things like mass killings and raz­ing holy places. That’s a good way to get peo­ple riled up and why deal­ing with mobs in a jack-booted way is tricky and dif­fi­cult. But what works in the U.S. and Allawi’s favor is the gen­eral unsa­vori­ness of the Mehdi Army. As Juan Cole says, “Arab news­pa­pers don’t usu­ally say so, but the other side of the story is that Muqtada’s mili­ti­a­men are narrow-minded, thug-like puri­tans who impose their power on civil­ians by coer­cion.” He’s absolutely right. As one fighter is quoted by a Salon story, “We will do any­thing to stop the Amer­i­cans. They have sex and drink­ing and other things, and we don’t want this.“
Now, I’m _not_ going to make the argu­ment that they should be killed because they don’t like Brit­ney Spears. I am also not going to say that they don’t have a right to life or to their beliefs. I am going to ask the ques­tion why the West­ern world should be wring­ing its hands about deal­ing deci­sively with a heav­ily armed group of these guys, who are also the chief sus­pects behind a wave of liquor store and CD shop bomb­ings in Bagh­dad and other cities. In any other sit­u­a­tion, they would be con­sid­ered crim­i­nal thugs and most peo­ple would beg­ging the National Guard to come in and restore order. But in the case of Moq­tada, you’d think I’d maligned La Resis­tance of World War II. How _dare_ I call the brave mujahdeen ass­holes and thugs?
Which brings me back to my point. Where is the out­rage and the sym­pa­thy for Moq­tada? I mean, I under­stand the desire to avoid killing peo­ple in mass quan­ti­ties; it’s really for the best that that doesn’t hap­pen. I am against mass killings, period. But where are the crowds and the marches for U.S. out of Najaf or for Moqtada’s brave resis­tance such as those that pre­ceded the war in the West? Where are the denun­ci­a­tions in the U.N. from peo­ple with cred­i­bil­ity on human rights and vio­lence like Ger­many or Canada? I’m not hear­ing them. Or at least, I’m not hear­ing of reports of them.
And here in Iraq, I’d guess that most peo­ple would “sym­pa­thize” with al-Sadr stand­ing up to the hated Amer­i­cans. But do they sup­port al-Sadr him­self? Over­whelm­ingly, *no.* In a sur­vey (.doc file) done in June by the Iraq Cen­ter for Research and Strate­gic Stud­ies, an Iraqi think tank run by Dr. Sadoun al-Dulame, he found that the per­son Iraqis would most vote for in a pres­i­den­tial race was … Ibrahim al-Jafari, the head of the Islamic Dawa Party (A Shi’a group.) The next most pop­u­lar was “don’t know.” The Shi’a leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Coun­cil for Islamic Rev­o­lu­tion in Iraq, received 2.1 per­cent of the vote. What did Moq­tada get? 1.1 per­cent. Hell, _Saddam Hussein_ out­polled al-Sadr, with 1.7 per­cent of respon­dents choos­ing him as their favorite pres­i­den­tial can­di­date.
Would more peo­ple vote for al-Sadr now? Very pos­si­bly. Would it be more than 2 – 3 per­cent? I seri­ously doubt it. Will it change in the future? Undoubt­edly, but to what degree I have no idea.
Al-Sadr’s move­ment gar­ners sym­pa­thy because he’s point­ing his fin­ger at the biggest devil of them all in Iraq — the United States. But that doesn’t nec­es­sar­ily trans­late into sup­port for the man him­self. His cause — dri­ving out the U.S. — may be pop­u­lar, but the man and his poli­cies, such as they are, are widely dis­par­aged. Putting down an armed (and mostly unpop­u­lar) rebel­lion isn’t putting the brakes on democ­racy, it’s remov­ing a bar­rier to it.
What the Iraqis do after that is their busi­ness, hope­fully. I’ve been at the national con­fer­ence for the past two days, and it’s a mess, but I hope not an entirely hope­less one. The big par­ties — the PUK, KDP, Islamic Dawa Party, SCIRI and Iraqi National Accord have set up the selec­tion process so that it — surprise! — favors them­selves. And the two biggest par­ties, Dawa and SCIRI are mak­ing a real power play to dom­i­nate the com­ing coun­cil. The reac­tion among the 1,300 del­e­gates to the Islamic putsch? Dis­may and alarm. Most Iraqis from all walks of life really don’t want to live under an Islamic state envi­sioned by the Islamists, among which Moq­tada would proudly place him­self.)
Any­way, the peo­ple who do argue most stren­u­ously are the “hard-core anti-imperialists,” as I rather slop­pily termed them. My apolo­gies. These are — gen­er­ally — the folks who opposed the war, as I did, but who think that pulling out com­pletely is the answer, as I do not. I don’t think they’re really argu­ing in favor of Moq­tada so much as against the U.S. Some­one in one of the com­ments said they favored “self-determination.” Based on anec­do­tal evi­dence — and the poll results above — self-determination would involve _someone_ rid­ing Moqtada’s ass out of Najaf on a rail and dis­arm­ing his mili­tia. It would also involve get­ting the U.S. out of Iraq and not dam­ag­ing the shrine.
As I said, if Moq­tada and his fol­low­ers get slaugh­tered, I’m con­fi­dent most of the world will make the stan­dard dis­ap­prov­ing noises, but not too much of a fuss. If the shrine is undam­aged (or maybe only a lit­tle bit), it’s a big win for Allawi. If, how­ever, the Imam Ali shrine is dam­aged or worse, that’s an entirely dif­fer­ent story. And a much scarier one. That _would_ inflame mid­dle class and poor alike, unit­ing behind a hatred for the U.S. that could trans­late from resent­ful grum­bling into real action. That’s why al-Sadr is weak with­out the shrine and pow­er­ful inside it. And that’s why this is tricky.
Al-Sadr isn’t that pop­u­lar, except where he exploits the fears and resent­ment of the poor, his vision of Iraq is not that pop­u­lar, he’s been given numer­ous oppor­tu­ni­ties to take part in a polit­i­cal sys­tem that is, while flawed, the only game in town, and he refuses and takes over the holi­est shrine in Islam. An Iraqi reporter in Najaf is telling me the peo­ple of Najaf are fed up with him and want him out because the Mehdi’s are ter­ror­iz­ing them and shoot­ing mor­tars from the top of the mosque. Tell me again why he shouldn’t be dealt with strongly and force­fully if he con­tin­ues to refuse all over­tures of giv­ing him a slice of the polit­i­cal pie? What is the alter­na­tive? Just pulling up stakes and leav­ing?
That’s not such a good idea either.
Say­ing the war should have never hap­pened and feel­ing vir­tu­ous because you were right it is all well and good, but it’s not really a road map to what to do regard­ing Iraq. Because, Iraq is the U.S.‘s prob­lem — and it’s a big one. It is _the_ for­eign pol­icy chal­lenge for the U.S. — and the rest of the world — for the fore­see­able future. If this was Viet­nam you could, from a realpoli­tik point of view, let it mud­dle along under a regime of benign neglect. But not here. It’s chaos sit­ting on the second-largest oil reserves in the world. And they don’t even have to be tapped for it to affect you per­son­ally.
Yes, you per­son­ally. Let’s say Moq­tada sur­vives and his move­ment suc­ceeds in dis­cred­it­ing the Allawi gov­ern­ment to such an extent that he resigns or, in des­per­a­tion, asks the United States to leave and invites Moq­tada into some form of power-sharing arrange­ment. He’s a fun­da­men­tal­ist Shi’a who wants to impose an Islamic state on a pop­u­la­tion that would over­whelm­ingly oppose it, as I’ve men­tioned. Or hell, let’s say he dies and his mar­tyr­dom leads to a pop­u­lar rev­o­lu­tion — again, some­thing I think is improb­a­ble, but bear with me for the sake of argu­ment. Call this new Islamic Repub­lic of Iraq Iran-lite.
What would hap­pen next? Well, for one, the best and the bright­est of Iraq’s intel­lec­tu­als and mid­dle class would flee. So you’re mak­ing an already poor pop­u­la­tion poorer. Good for Moq­tada, the poor are his base, appeal­ing as he does to a kind of Islamic pop­ulism. What hap­pens when you make a coun­try impov­er­ished? Right, you cre­ate a breed­ing ground for _jihadist_ ter­ror­ism. It’s already hap­pen­ing among the Sunni extrem­ists of the Anbar province. A very few for­eign fig­ures such as Zar­qawi are inspir­ing native-born Iraqi _jihadis._ Fal­lu­jah is crawl­ing with them.
Next, the Kurds would prob­a­bly fight a civil war to get out of such a state. That’s one of the rea­sons they’re so adamant about the veto clause in the TAL — and why the Shia groups were so adamant to have it in. An inde­pen­dent Kur­dis­tan would almost surely ignite a regional war involv­ing Turkey and Iran. It would also deny the uni­fied Islamic Repub­lic of Iraq a lot of oil rev­enues from the Kirkuk region. The Mul­lahs of Bagh­dad would not let region go peace­fully.
So now you have a fun­da­men­tal­ist state that may not be offi­cially ter­ror­is­tic, but has cre­ated the con­di­tions for ter­ror­ism to grow, and there’s a regional war being fought right on top of much of the world’s oil sup­ply. Can you say $60 a bar­rel? Maybe higher? $100?
Now, bemoan Amer­i­can depen­dence on Mid­dle East oil all you want — I cer­tainly do — but for the medium term, we need it. As does Europe and Japan — even more than the United States does. Oil prices at $45 a bar­rel are already pro­duc­ing a drag on the United States econ­omy; even higher rates would send the world econ­omy into a tail spin. And what hap­pens when China can’t afford Mid­dle East oil? Well, those Sprat­ley Islands look mighty invit­ing.
So now the U.S. is faced with _two_ bla­tantly hos­tile regimes strad­dling the Gulf and the sub­ver­sive Saudi regime, all con­trol­ling 20 – 25 per­cent of the world’s oil sup­ply. Your heat­ing bills will go through the roof, for one. Like­wise, your elec­tric­ity bill. For­get about dri­ving that car every­where, and hell, you prob­a­bly won’t have a job to drive to, since the energy costs are caus­ing com­pa­nies to cut costs every­where. Trans­porta­tion costs are higher, so the goods you need to buy and the food you eat will cost a lot more — which is prob­lem since you lost your job. Etc., etc. You get the point.
So there is a domino the­ory at work here, as I think I’ve pointed out — just not the one the neo­cons envi­sioned. I’m not say­ing it’s right to ignore the masses or urban poor, only that it hap­pens. I’m not say­ing it’s right to kill a lot of peo­ple whether they’re poor or rich, but some­times it’s nec­es­sary. It’s tragic that the poor are too often the vic­tims, how­ever.
I’m say­ing that defeat­ing al-Sadr’s aims to impose an Islamic state either through diplo­macy or through mil­i­tary action, which would be highly dis­taste­ful and prob­a­bly a pyrrhic vic­tory, is really the only option left to Allawi and the Amer­i­cans. And the fact that that’s not really a choice at all is a tragedy too.

A Chat with Iyad Allawi

Here’s some­thing you might find inter­est­ing. I had a one-on-one inter­view with Iraqi Interim Prime Min­is­ter Iyad Allawi on Wednes­day when the fight­ing was rag­ing in Sadr City. It was for TIME Mag­a­zine, but — so far — the Q&A is not avail­able online. [UPDATE: The other ques­tions are now avail­able online.] Any­way, my edi­tor said I could post the ques­tions that didn’t make it into the print ver­sion for rea­sons of space. This tran­script is pretty raw. The print ver­sion has con­densed and cleaned up the lan­guage a bit. (Eng­lish is not Allawi’s first lan­guage.) Before peo­ple start yelling cen­sor­ship or some­thing, know this: I approved every edit in the printed ver­sion so that it was true to the man’s words. Any changes were purely for space rea­sons and any errors are my fault, not the magazine’s.

[UPDATE Aug 17: Per­haps it wasn’t clear that the ques­tions on this site are the out­takes of the inter­view. The pub­lished ques­tions are avail­able on the TIME site. I pub­lished these out­takes to because I believe in trans­parency in jour­nal­ism — which means mak­ing notes avail­able when you can. In this case I was able to show some addi­tional ques­tions, that were mainly designed to put him at ease. I would urge you to read all the ques­tions on both sites.]

Any­way, here’s the intro­duc­tion and the ques­tions not included in the print version.

These are try­ing days for Iyad Allawi, the Iraqi Interim Prime Min­is­ter, who has two sep­a­rate threats to his power: the Sunni insur­gency in the west and the al-Sadr rebel­lion in the south. He sat down last week for an inter­view with TIME reporter Christo­pher Allbrit­ton in Allawi’s spar­tan office in his Bagh­dad villa. A cou­ple of Iraqi police offi­cers stood in an antecham­ber, but signs of U.S. patron­age were every­where. Even the air con­di­tioner units bore the label, “Prop­erty of the U.S. Gov­ern­ment.” Dressed in a natty, brown-plaid suit, Allawi was alter­na­tively avun­cu­lar and aggressive.

allawi_narrowweb__200x266.jpgDoes Moq­tada al-Sadr have a future inside Iraq’s future polit­i­cal sys­tem? Well, if he wishes to do so, he would have. He can. As far as we’re con­cerned we have no prob­lem with that. I think he should be party of the polit­i­cal sys­tem, and he should allow the peo­ple to give their opin­ions of whether they will pick him as the pres­i­dent or not. It is bet­ter for him to be inside the polit­i­cal process rather than out­side the polit­i­cal process and try­ing to force his way on Iraqis and the Iraqi peo­ple by using arms and guns.

Regard­ing the arrest war­rant against Ahmed Cha­l­abi. He says this is all polit­i­cally dri­ven because of his rivalry with you. Is this true? Absolutely not true. The judi­cial sys­tem is inde­pen­dent here and we have no power over the judi­cial sys­tem. I have spo­ken with Cha­l­abi myself two days ago. He called me and I assured him that this was def­i­nitely a gov­ern­ment spon­sored — and he knows this by the way, he declared this, by the way, on an inter­view yes­ter­day. We have noth­ing to do with this at all. On the con­trary, we are now try­ing to find ways of try­ing to put this into the proper con­text and get him back into the polit­i­cal process and get him back into the country.

Do you expect him to come back and stand trial? I hope so. I hope he should come back and I hope he will def­i­nitely defend from the alle­ga­tions… But as far as the gov­ern­ment is con­cerned it has to be very clear that the gov­ern­ment has no power on the judi­cial sys­tem at all.

About he future of Iraq and the recent past, here’s an easy one: What’s improved and what’s dete­ri­o­rated since you’ve taken office? Well, I have to tell you, you know, there is what we call the process of improv­ing the secu­rity of Iraq. Now this gov­ern­ment, in this process, we have really done a lot so far given the very short period we have been a gov­ern­ment. We have dis­man­tled the ICDC, cre­ated the National Guard instead, expanded with the National Guard to cre­ate at least one divi­sion so far with the Iraqi Army. We have beefed up the police, cre­ated the intel­li­gence. So this is on the secu­rity. And we hope that this will continue.

On the process of rec­on­cil­i­a­tion and national unity and reha­bil­i­tat­ing Iraq back into the region, we have done a lot. We have done the law of amnesty, we have the ongo­ing con­fer­ence, which will take place in two or three days time, we have been out­reach­ing, even to the periph­er­als of the so-called resis­tance. We have been hold­ing face-to-face meet­ings, ask­ing them to get back, to be part of the rec­on­cil­i­a­tion process. We have been vis­it­ing the region. We have devel­oped very good ties again, which would enable us to rein­te­grate again in a pos­i­tive and a healthy way.

On the polit­i­cal process itself, we have even moved far­ther than that, and as I said, we are now going to have our first national con­fer­ence. We hope the United Nations will put more effort so we can do it together, expe­dite and speed up the process of the, the polit­i­cal process.

On the issue of the econ­omy, we have laid down very impor­tant min­is­te­r­ial com­mit­tees, to take care of the econ­omy. We have estab­lished the Supreme Coun­cil for Oil Pol­icy, the Supreme Eco­nom­i­cal Com­mit­tee, which I chair myself. We have estab­lished the Recon­struc­tion Com­mit­tee, which my deputy chairs. The Recon­struc­tion Com­mit­tee has gone into imme­di­ate dia­log with the donor coun­tries and we hope the money will be com­ing in by the end of this month. We have ear­marked a lot of projects for the under­de­vel­oped areas in Iraq.

So these are all processes that have been achieved so far in spite of the very short period and prob­lems we are facing.

In what ways do you dis­agree with cur­rent U.S. pol­icy and in what ways would you like to see more from the U.S.? Frankly, the rela­tion­ship with the United States is very friendly, very pos­i­tive. We appre­ci­ate what the United States has done to Iraq, start­ing from lib­er­a­tion, post-liberation. Now, the United States is help­ing in the recon­struc­tion of Iraq. As you know, the United States is the major donor to Iraq in the donors’ con­fer­ence in Madrid. What we want to see is the imple­men­ta­tion of the pro­gram that we want to do and the recon­struc­tion and expe­dit­ing the chan­nel­ing of funds into Iraq as soon as pos­si­ble. There are indeed, as in any Arab coun­try, there are areas of agree­ment and there are areas of dis­agree­ment, but the most impor­tant thing is that we have a very healthy dia­logue with the United States. This dia­logue will con­tinue. We are very appre­cia­tive of the role the Amer­i­can ambas­sador Negro­ponte is doing here. He’s a very pos­i­tive per­son and engag­ing in a pos­i­tive way with the Iraqi gov­ern­ment and we hope the rela­tion­ship will con­tinue to be healthy and positive.

The upcoming Iraqi National Conference

Hey, did you know the Iraqis are about to hold a National Con­fer­ence of 1,000 del­e­gates to choose the 100 mem­bers of the interim Iraqi par­lia­ment? Not many in the west­ern press seemed to notice, either. (Note the same AP story from Jamie Tarabay shows up five out of 10 sto­ries, so dupes don’t count.) Robin Wright of the _Washington Post_ has a good story, too.
[UPDATE 28-July: Now they’re tak­ing notice.]
But that matches my expe­ri­ence on the ground. While the media buzz about Afghanistan’s loya jirga seemed quite lively, I’ve not heard much inter­est among reporters here about the con­fer­ence, which will, in essence, select the leg­isla­tive branch of the Iraqi Interim Gov­ern­ment. As Jamie says:

The con­fer­ence was stip­u­lated by a law enacted by the depart­ing U.S. civil admin­is­tra­tion last month. Made up of del­e­gates from Iraq’s 18 provinces as well as tribal, reli­gious and polit­i­cal lead­ers, the gath­er­ing will choose 80 of its del­e­gates to join a 100-member national assem­bly. The remain­ing mem­bers will come from the now-dissolved Iraqi Gov­ern­ing Coun­cil.
The assem­bly will have the power to approve the national bud­get, veto exec­u­tive orders with a two-thirds major­ity and appoint replace­ments to the Cab­i­net in the event a min­is­ter dies or resigns.

And there are a lot of prob­lems already, thanks in part to the fact that 19 or 20 (I’ve heard two num­bers) of the seats are already appor­tioned to the for­mer mem­bers of the old Gov­ern­ing Coun­cil. Yes, that means Ahmed Cha­l­abi might be a par­lia­men­tar­ian, as well as the PUK’s Jalal Tal­a­bani and the KDP’s Mas­soud Barzani. If the heads of the par­ties decided to take the seats reserved for them, that should make for some inter­est­ing floor debates!
Inter­est­ingly, I was talk­ing with my friend Sayyid Ayad Jumalud­din last night, and he said the Cha­l­abi had not par­tic­i­pated in any meet­ings lead­ing up to the con­fer­ence — which will be this week, but for secu­rity rea­sons the spe­cific time and place have not been announced. Nor had any­one from the Iraqi National Con­gress sent any del­e­gates to the National High Com­mit­tee, a body that has been lay­ing the ground­work for the con­fer­ence. As Wright says:

Cha­l­abi has been mobi­liz­ing a new Shi­ite bloc that includes sup­port­ers of rebel cleric Moq­tada Sadr. Chalabi’s goal is to win a seat and ulti­mately become leader of the coun­cil to be formed at the con­fer­ence, accord­ing to Iraqi and U.S. officials.

We’ll see. But right now, I think this puts Cha­l­abi in the same rejec­tion­ist cat­e­gory as Sheikh Dr. Harith al-Dhari, the head of the Islamic Cleric’s Asso­ci­a­tion and imam of the Mother of All Vil­lages mosque. (For­merly Mother of All Bat­tles mosque.)
I’ve spo­ken with al-Dhari and he rejected the whole idea of the interim gov­ern­ment, as estab­lished by the TAL, as ille­git­i­mate. And Jamie quotes him as say­ing, “We decided not to take part in any polit­i­cal orga­ni­za­tion as long as the occu­pa­tion exists in Iraq.” If, by occu­pa­tion, he means the pres­ence of any U.S. troops in Iraq, he’s going to be in the polit­i­cal wilder­ness for a long time. Just as well, as sto­ries swirl about him darkly that he’s some­how con­nected with the hostage tak­ing. A lot of for­eign dig­ni­taries come to him as their go-to guy on get­ting their nation­als released although he claims no con­nec­tion with kid­nap­pers. Need­less to say, his protests of inno­cence are met with skep­ti­cism.
On the other end of the reli­gious spec­trum, Moq­tada al-Sadr’s orga­ni­za­tion has point­edly not been invited, Jumalud­din said, because of the arrest war­rant hang­ing over his head. But sub­groups of Sadr sup­port­ers have been invited and may even­tu­ally take part. The conference’s orga­niz­ers, of which Jumalud­din is one, are wait­ing to hear from them.
But this con­fer­ence should be fun to cover. It will be like an old-fashioned pres­i­den­tial con­ven­tion, com­plete with smoke-filled back-rooms and arm-twisting. Expect a fair amount of polit­i­cal skull­dug­gery and coali­tion build­ing. Groups such as the Islamic Dawa Party (Hizb’dawa), SCIRI and the Iraqi Islamic Party can be expected to make a reli­gious coali­tion while the KDP, PUK and INC will be a sec­u­lar bloc. Fur­ther com­pli­cat­ing mat­ters is interim Prime Min­is­ter Iyad Allawi’s party, the Iraqi National Accord, which has a long rivalry with the INC. Look for some fire­works between those groups as Chalabi’s min­ions — assum­ing they show up — try to under­mine the INA and weaken Allawi before the par­lia­ment ever con­venes. Any­thing to make Allawi look inef­fec­tual strength­ens poten­tial chal­lengers’ hands for the elec­tions in Jan­u­ary — and you know who (*cough* Cha­l­abi *cough, cough*) will def­i­nitely be look­ing to fill Allawi’s chair next year.
But more grandly, the secular/liberal and the religious/conservative blocs will be the cen­ters of power in Iraqi pol­i­tics for some time to come, so watch the coali­tion build­ing start now.
Jaime lists a lot of prob­lems this week’s con­fer­ence, includ­ing secu­rity, squab­bling over how del­e­ga­tions from the provinces are picked and just gen­eral inex­pe­ri­ence with democ­racy. Jumalud­din cau­tioned that the estab­lished par­ties, such as SCIRI, the INC and oth­ers with long expe­ri­ence oppos­ing Sad­dam Hus­sein with have a real advan­tage over the newly formed local par­ties and inde­pen­dent can­di­dates. They know how to cut deals, pol­i­tick — and they’re well financed. The prob­lem, how­ever, is that they rep­re­sent, in total, only about 20 per­cent of Iraqis (Not count­ing the Kur­dish par­ties.) That means the major­ity of non-Kurd Iraqis are up for grabs — for par­ties that have no idea how to cam­paign or oper­ate in a leg­isla­tive body. I can barely imag­ine the out­rage that will occur when some fledg­ling party gets its lunch handed to it by, say, Hizb’dawa, after the smaller party trades its votes on some key issue only to get screwed because its rep­re­sen­ta­tives didn’t under­stand the details of the bar­gain.
Jumalud­din also warned of stealth can­di­dates. As in the United States, where a can­di­date — for exam­ple — runs as a mod­er­ate Repub­li­can but when elected turns out to be deeply con­ser­v­a­tive, some mem­bers of this week’s con­fer­ence will attempt to push for­ward “inde­pen­dent” can­di­dates in the inter­est of “rep­re­sen­ta­tion.” These osten­si­bly inde­pen­dent can­di­dates will be any­thing but. They will be cats’ paws for the major par­ties and can be expected to vote reli­ably with their patrons.
“Iraqis don’t know what democ­racy is,” said Jumalud­din as he chewed on a truly mag­nif­i­cent Cohiba. Then he told me a joke: An old woman asks her son, “What is this democ­racy I hear so much about? What does it mean?” Her son tells her that every four years there will be a new pres­i­dent. “Isn’t that won­der­ful, umma?” The old woman thinks about that for a moment, and then asks, “Does that mean every four years there will be loot­ing and fight­ing?“
The Iraqis have an odd sense of humor.
UPDATE: Unreg­is­tered com­ments are back and seem to be working.

Chalabi to CPA: “Relationship is non-existent.”

BAGHDAD — By now, many of you know about the raid today on Ahmed Chalabi’s house and two offices of the INC in Bagh­dad at about 9:30 a.m. local time. Some evi­dence and weapons were con­fis­cated, senior Coali­tion offi­cials said, and “sev­eral” peo­ple were arrested. There was no resis­tance, offi­cials said, but footage after the raid showed that the place had been trashed.
The offi­cial line is that this was an Iraqi police pro­ce­dure, with search and arrest war­rants handed down by an Iraqi judge after CPA head Paul Bre­mer referred an alle­ga­tion 10 months ago to the Cen­tral Crim­i­nal Court of Iraq. The charges include fraud, kid­nap­ping and “asso­ci­ated mat­ters.” (No expan­sion on that.)
[UPDATE 12:12 AM, LOCAL BAGHDAD TIME: Now we have some expan­sion. Accord­ing to the inves­ti­gat­ing judge, Hus­sain Al-Moathin, who is on the Iraqi Cen­tral Crim­i­nal Court, said:

There have been some crimes and inci­dents that have been acted by Iraqi per­son­nel, and those inci­dents took place against Iraqis. A small group of peo­ple were detained by these crim­i­nals and tor­tured. And also, there have been a num­ber of inci­dents of kid­nap­ping and also killing some­one because — for per­sonal pur­poses. And in addi­tion to that, they have also cap­tured — or they have just took over some of the gov­ern­ment facil­i­ties. And those peo­ple have been — there was a war­rant of cap­tur­ing and seiz­ing those peo­ple, but unfor­tu­nately, it was not pos­si­ble to cap­ture them. They are now — away from the law — they are outlaws.

[Then he names people:

  • Abdul­lah Araji
  • Azid Samir Aziz
  • Amar Mohammed Raib
  • Vafir Mohammed Raib
  • Aras Habib — pos­si­bly Aras Habib Karim, a colonel in the FIF and close asso­ci­ated of Cha­l­abi. He may have been the man in charge of the INC’s quest to hunt down for­mer high-level Ba’athists in Iraq
  • Dezi Mavi
  • Has­san Mahad
  • Dr. Hamam

Senior Coali­tion offi­cials men­tioned that sev­eral peo­ple listed in the arrest war­rants involv­ing the INC offices were not arrested because they were not there; the above list is appar­ently those peo­ple. Judge Al-Moathin took no ques­tions.]
Peo­ple on the scene of the raid report U.S. tanks being used to back up the Iraqi cops. Senior Coali­tion offi­cials, in a back­ground brief­ing, said they had no knowl­edge of this and referred all ques­tions to the inves­ti­gat­ing offi­cers of the Iraqi Police force. At today’s 6 p.m. brief­ing chief CPA spokesman Dan Senor res­olutely refused to address any details about the raid, also refer­ring reporters to the Iraqi police force and the inves­tiga­tive judge.
Cha­l­abi, pre­dictably, was pretty pissed off. “When Amer­ica treats its friends this way then they are in big trou­ble,” Cha­l­abi said on CNN. “My rela­tion­ship with the Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity now is non-existent.”
“Let my peo­ple go,” he — incred­i­bly, and taste­lessly — said at his press con­fer­ence. “Let my peo­ple be free.“
Cha­l­abi sure hasn’t lost his tal­ent for mak­ing offen­sive com­ments.
It’s unclear exactly what’s going on and dur­ing today’s brief­ings, a lot of spec­u­la­tion cen­tered around the oil-for-food inves­ti­ga­tion. Senor, how­ever, said there was no con­nec­tion between that inves­ti­ga­tion and the raid on Chalabi’s house. This idea seems to come from a state­ment from Cha­l­abi at his press con­fer­ence ear­lier today, where he also said a for­mer Ba’athist offi­cial car­ried out the “unwar­ranted” raid. (Tech­ni­cally not true, there were numer­ous war­rants.)
So if there was ever any doubt that Cha­l­abi was now per­sona non grata with the Amer­i­cans, today should dis­pel any con­fu­sion. First there was the bogus WMD infor­ma­tion he ped­dled to the United States. Then it was his dis­as­trous idea to Bre­mer to dis­band the Iraqi Army. Next, it was his seizure of tens of thou­sands of records from Saddam’s era. He’s involved in dozens of dirty lit­tle con­tracts and a cor­rupt oil-for-food inves­ti­ga­tion — Cha­l­abi hand-picked the auditors! — may finally have caused the United States to cut the strings of its puppet/puppet-master.
So this is the end of a beau­ti­ful friend­ship, but is it the end of Cha­l­abi? He’s a sur­vivor, that’s for sure. What this means for the June 30 han­dover is, unfor­tu­nately, also unclear.
This is all very frus­trat­ing, because S. is mother-henning me prac­ti­cally to death, and I’m not able to talk to any Iraqis. Every­thing is “too dan­ger­ous,” he says. I couldn’t even go gro­cery shop­ping today. He’s prob­a­bly right, but I’m chaf­ing under the restric­tions. I know I’ve only been here a day, total, but I’m anx­ious to get out there and talk to peo­ple. As it is, all I can tell you is that S. and his nephew A. are both happy about the raid on Chalabi’s offices and home.
“He’s a big crook,” A. said tonight over a din­ner of rice, bread and meat. S. nod­ded in agree­ment. “A thief!” he added. A. is pretty apo­lit­i­cal, but he’s an excel­lent dri­ver and he likes to play R&B and hip-hop from artists such as Blue and 50-Cent as he screams down the Bagh­dad back alleys at night in a 1991 BMW.
This is not sur­pris­ing — A.‘s opin­ion of Cha­l­abi, not his musi­cal tastes — and I’d guess it is the opin­ion of a major­ity of Iraqis. Cha­l­abi pulls maybe 2% approval rat­ing in the coun­try, and he must know he would be badly beaten in any elec­tion. Of course, if, like Sad­dam Hus­sein, he sur­rounds him­self with “yes” men (na’am men here) he might be blind to his real unpop­u­lar­ity. Both S. and A. men­tioned his fraud con­vic­tion in Jor­dan and nei­ther seemed sur­prised by this recent turn of events. Leop­ards, spots, etc.
In other news, Brig. Gen. Mark Kim­mitt stuck to the story that the attack in the desert yes­ter­day, about 25 km from the Syr­ian bor­der, was no wed­ding party, con­tra­dict­ing what many news orga­ni­za­tions have reported and many Iraqis have claimed. When pressed to explain the num­ber of women and chil­dren among the casu­al­ties — as shown on APTV, hardly an Al Jazeera clone — he said the images on the tele­vi­sion and what Amer­i­can troops found on the ground were “incon­sis­tent.“
Specif­i­cally, Kim­mitt says the attack was in the mid­dle of the desert took place along a known “rat-line” that serves as a route for for­eign fight­ers and smug­glers com­ing into Iraq. U.S. troops recov­ered shot­guns, pis­tols, AK-47, sniper rifles, RPG launch­ers and other weaponry along with about $1,000 in mixed Iraqi dinars, he said. When it was pointed out that the sum of money and cache of guns didn’t seem that unusual — for Iraq — Kim­mitt basi­cally shrugged.
“This oper­a­tion was not some­thing that fell out of the sky,” he said. “We had sig­nif­i­cant intel­li­gence which caused us to con­duct a mil­i­tary oper­a­tion in the mid­dle of the desert. … We are sat­is­fied at this point that the intel­li­gence that led us there was val­i­dated by what we found on the ground. There was not a wed­ding party going on.“
Most reporters in the room seemed to have sources dif­fer­ent from Kimmitt’s. A Reuters reporter said a wed­ding singer and his brother were at this gath­er­ing and died in the blasts The singer’s cousin was the source. Kim­mitt stuck to his “We don’t know, we’re inves­ti­gat­ing,” line and promised … an inves­ti­ga­tion.
Finally, after a brisk 37 min­utes, Senor cut off the ques­tion­ing and called it a day.