Deadly Spectre

Most news­pa­pers talked about the shift in tac­tics adopted by com­bat­ants in Iraq from indi­vid­ual attacks on U.S. troops to mas­sive car bombs against “soft tar­gets” such as the U.N. head­quar­ters in Bagh­dad yes­ter­day. I don’t have much to add right now, since I gave my analy­sis yes­ter­day. But I think I know why the Jor­dan­ian embassy was tar­geted by a smaller car bomb Aug. 7.
It was prac­tice.
The ques­tion that every­one should be ask­ing now is, what’s the next target?

The Way We Were…

Man, I gotta get back to Bagh­dad. (New title for the site?) The rea­son I post this is because I finally got around to post­ing the link to one of the sto­ries I did for Scholas­tic while I was over there in April.
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Bagh­dad res­i­dents greet me in April. (® 2003 Christo­pher Allbrit­ton)
How opti­mistic the Iraqis (mostly Kurds, frankly) sounded!

Every­thing will be OK,” said Wuria Ahmed Ameen, a Kur­dish trans­la­tor and pro­fes­sor in the north­ern Iraq city of Arbil. “There is still cer­tain resis­tance, but even those that belonged to the Ba’ath Party [Sad­dam Hussein’s party] are very, very happy about the sit­u­a­tion.” The only rea­son Saddam’s sup­port­ers backed him, he said, was because they feared him. Now that he’s gone, “They will accept what happened.…even the Arabs will real­ize how oppressed they were.”

Obvi­ously things haven’t worked out quite that smoothly. I won­der what they think now, really. I read the _Times_ and the _Washington Post_ and much of the cov­er­age focuses on the neg­a­tive. This is to be expected and it’s how news works. It’s not an anti-American bias or any­thing like that — it’s a bias every reporter has that defines news as any­thing that goes against the expected grain. Full dis­clo­sure: I do it, too. Thir­teen years of jour­nal­ism and two degrees in jour­nal­ism die hard.
This bias is, of course, one rea­son peo­ple like to call their local papers and demand less empha­sis on “bad news.” Well, things in the Amer­ica are gen­er­ally expected to work out OK. When they don’t, that’s news — by def­i­n­i­tion. And “bad news” is gen­er­ally more impor­tant than “good news.” Who wants to read a paper that tells read­ers, “everything’s cool,” when things aren’t cool at all?
And in par­al­lel, for­eign media in Iraq are focus­ing on the hor­ri­ble stuff because _that’s news._ That’s what they do. But is there a silent Iraqi major­ity that sup­ports the CPA? Or are the angry and resent­ful peo­ple quoted in the papers truly rep­re­sen­ta­tive of pub­lic opin­ion? I don’t know the answers to those ques­tions, but I’d like to find out.
Any­way, my book pro­posal is in my agent’s hands, and I’m wait­ing to hear now. Here’s hop­ing a decent advance is forth­com­ing and it will be enough to allow me to set up shop in Bagh­dad for two or three months to fin­ish up the research.

Interesting news from Mosul

Salam over at Where is Raed? posted an highly inter­est­ing report from a friend of his call­ing her­self River­bend. Seems that the Amer­i­cans are foul­ing things up in Mosul, too, and that domes­tic audi­ences here in the States may have really missed the anger and resent­ment of Iraqis at the attacks, killings and dis­play of Udai and Qusai Hus­sein. As River­bend writes:

Peo­ple are infu­ri­ated because of the whole com­mo­tion– planes fly­ing, Apaches hov­er­ing and freaked-out troops shoot­ing right and left (yes, they shot civil­ians). Then, on top of all that crap, they decide to show the pic­tures on tv to ‘prove to the Iraqi peo­ple’ the deaths of Uday and Qusai… Pleeeeease… those pic­tures were obvi­ously Bush’s war tro­phy. And could they have come at a more con­ve­nient time for the nitwit??? I think not…

She also makes note that elec­tric­ity is back on in Mosul, more or less, but that it was accom­plished through local efforts, not “Amreeekan” ones.
(Mosul was the scene of some of the most sav­age unrest after the war. (Salon​.com, reg­is­tra­tion likely required.) Phillip Robert­son did some great report­ing there.)

Meanwhile, back in Iraq…

While much deserved atten­tion is paid to bat­tle for the truth against the Bush administration’s many chang­ing ratio­nales for war, the bat­tle for Iraq is still ongo­ing. _Newsday_ has a chill­ing inter­view with a man known as Khaled, who claims to be a com­man­der of the _Saddam Fedayeen_, and says the resis­tance is orga­nized, grow­ing and ruth­less.
“We have many more peo­ple and we’re a lot bet­ter orga­nized than the Amer­i­cans real­ize,” said Khaled, 29, who gave an hour-long inter­view to _Newsday_ on Wednes­day on the con­di­tion that only his first name be pub­lished. “We have been prepar­ing for this kind of guer­rilla war for a long time, and we’re much more patient than the Amer­i­cans. We have nowhere else to go.“

Khaled described the work­ings of a loosely orga­nized net­work of for­mer Baath Party mem­bers, Iraqi sol­diers, intel­li­gence offi­cers and other die-hard Hus­sein sup­port­ers who have been respon­si­ble for an unknown num­ber of the attacks that have killed 29 U.S. sol­diers and injured dozens since May 1.
He said the net­work oper­ates in cells of five or six mem­bers that answer to a secret lead­er­ship struc­ture. It goes by var­i­ous names  —  the Feday­een, the Iraq Lib­er­a­tion Army, Muhammad’s Army  —  and Khaled said only a hand­ful of peo­ple know its full reach. He said its mem­bers draw inspi­ra­tion from Hus­sein and from the belief that the ousted Iraqi leader is alive and will regain power once U.S. troops are forced to leave.

What has the United States marched its troops into? A quag­mire? An abat­toir?
I respect­fully dis­agree with other sites that the U.S. should bring the troops home by Christ­mas. While I resent that the men and women I met while in the war were lied to and put in harm’s way for a myr­iad of shift­ing ratio­nales, the fact of the mat­ter is that Iraq is a mess. Pulling out the troops now would make it even worse, if you can believe that.
Iraq is a dan­ger­ous place, full of dan­ger­ous men. Saddam’s regime ter­ror­ized his peo­ple leav­ing resent­ments, fury and the urge for revenge. If the U.S. pulled out before the coun­try was sta­bi­lized, there would be a civil war that might spill over into Turkey, Iran and Saudi Ara­bia. The Kurds would be mas­sa­cred as Turkey and Iran move in to pro­tect their inter­ests. The Per­sian Gulf would be impass­able. Energy infra­struc­ture from Basra to Baku in Azer­bai­jan would be destroyed, slower or oth­er­wise impaired. The world’s econ­omy would grind to a halt. And the real dan­ger to the West, al Qa’ida, would be able to oper­ate much more freely.
That’s not to say there aren’t any alter­na­tives, but none of them are very good. Turn­ing Iraq over to a U.N. trust to be admin­is­tered and policed by the body is a pop­u­lar one. That’s a tough call, how­ever. Iraq would be the biggest project of this kind ever under­taken by the United Nations, and its track record is mixed. Any real­is­tic U.N.-sanctioned force needed to estab­lish secu­rity would have to include a siz­able por­tion of Amer­i­cans — if only for logis­ti­cal pur­poses — who would be even less wel­come in Bagh­dad a sec­ond time around. Avoid­ing addi­tional ill will would prob­a­bly require plac­ing Amer­i­can troops under an Islamic com­mand, pos­si­bly Turk­ish or Pak­istani. Can any­one really imag­ine any pres­i­dent, Repub­li­can or Demo­c­rat, doing that?
Many, many opposed this war — I did. I thought it was a mis­take of colos­sal mag­ni­tude — still do. U.S. troops face 10 to 25 attacks _a day,_ and, as Khaled implied, it will get likely worse. The choices avail­able are all bad. Sim­ply put, *the Amer­i­cans can’t stay, but nei­ther can they leave.* What they call “lib­er­a­tion,” _tahrir_ in Ara­bic, too many Iraqis are call­ing _ihtilal,_ — “occu­pa­tion,” with the over­tones of the Chris­t­ian Cru­sades, the Mon­gol sack­ing of Bagh­dad in the 13th cen­tury, the divvy­ing up of the region between Britain and France after World War I and the Israeli pres­ence in Lebanon and the occu­pied ter­ri­to­ries. As Salon​.com writer Nir Rosen says:

The most com­mon refrain one hears from Iraqis these days is: “They came as lib­er­a­tors and now they are occu­piers.” The sig­nif­i­cance of the lib­er­a­tion vs. occu­pa­tion debate can get lost in trans­la­tion here, but its immense polit­i­cal impli­ca­tions were evi­dent in a June 2 meet­ing, hosted by the Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity, for nearly 300 tribal lead­ers of all reli­gions and eth­nic groups. Hume Horan, a polit­i­cal advi­sor to Bre­mer, also was present. Horan, a for­mer ambas­sador to Saudi Ara­bia and flu­ent Ara­bic speaker, addressed the audi­ence in Ara­bic about the coalition’s efforts and its need for Iraqi sup­port.
After Horan fin­ished speak­ing, Sheik Munther Abood from Amarra thanked Pres­i­dent Bush for remov­ing the Baath regime of Sad­dam Hus­sein and stated that he had seen the mass graves full of dead Shias in the south and was firmly opposed to Sad­dam. He then asked Horan if the coali­tion forces in Iraq were lib­er­a­tors or occu­piers. Horan responded that they were “some­where in between occu­pier and lib­er­a­tor.“
This was not well received by the audi­ence. Sheik Abood stated that if Amer­ica was a lib­er­a­tor, then the coali­tion forces were wel­come indef­i­nitely as guests, but that if they were occu­piers, then he and his descen­dants would “die resist­ing” them. This met with ener­getic applause from the audi­ence. Sev­eral other sheiks echoed the same sen­ti­ment. Then the meet­ing dete­ri­o­rated and a third of the audi­ence stood up and walked out, despite efforts by Horan and other orga­niz­ers to encour­age them to stay. At which point the meet­ing ended. It was not a pub­lic rela­tions success.

Is it any won­der peo­ple like Khaled find sup­port? “The guer­rilla must move amongst the peo­ple as a fish swims in the sea,” Mao once said. (He also said, “Weapons are an impor­tant fac­tor in war, but not the deci­sive fac­tor; it is peo­ple, not things, that are deci­sive.” Khaled and peo­ple like him are prov­ing Mao right.)
All Amer­i­cans should be aware of the ago­niz­ing posi­tion Team Bush has put them in. There are few good solu­tions to this that will a) ben­e­fit the Iraqi peo­ple and respect their dig­nity and sov­er­eignty, and b) keep the region sta­ble and secure while reduc­ing Amer­i­can casu­al­ties. The answers that do look viable — pump­ing mas­sive quan­ti­ties of aid and money aimed at rebuild­ing the country’s infra­struc­ture and deal­ing with Iraqis on their terms and not on the Americans’ — don’t seem to on the table in Wash­ing­ton and Bagh­dad. Per­haps it’s just not in this White House’s polit­i­cal DNA to deal with any­one except at gun­point. (“Polit­i­cal power grows out of the bar­rel of a gun.” — Mao, again.)
For­mer CENTCOM com­man­der Tommy Franks says the world is fac­ing a four-year pres­ence in Iraq. So, elect­ing a Demo­c­rat into the White House in 2004 won’t be a solu­tion. As I’ve argued above, the chaos and anar­chy that would result in a pre­ma­ture pull­out will force any pres­i­dent to main­tain a siz­able pres­ence in Iraq. (Amer­i­cans should still turn Bush and his cronies out on their col­lec­tive ass, though. The list of rea­sons to do so other than Iraq are ency­clo­pe­dic.)
The com­ments from Khaled, Franks, Horan and Sheik Abood remind me of the apoc­ryphal story told of the encounter between an Amer­i­can colonel and his North Viet­namese coun­ter­part at the Paris Peace Con­fer­ence. “You know,” the Amer­i­can said, “you never defeated us on the bat­tle­field.” His coun­ter­part responded: “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”

Kurds appoint first woman prefect in Iraq

Thank good­ness for a lit­tle good news from Iraq. Mudira Abu Bakr has been appointed town pre­fect of the Dukan region near Suleimaniya, mak­ing her the first woman “gov­er­nor” since the found­ing of mod­ern Iraq in 1921.
“I will work accord­ing to my action plan to pro­vide the best pub­lic ser­vices for the peo­ple of the Dukan region and I will do my best to ensure the rule of law,” Abu Bakr told jour­nal­ists at a cer­e­mony to mark the occa­sion.
Good for the Kurds. Abu Bakr joins Nas­reen Mustafa Sideek Bar­wari, the min­is­ter for recon­struc­tion and devel­op­ment in the Kur­dis­tan Regional Gov­ern­ment, in rebuild­ing Iraqi Kur­dis­tan. The appoint­ment of Abu Bakr and Sideek Barwari’s con­tin­ued duties is in marked con­trast to devel­op­ments to the south, where con­ser­v­a­tive reli­gious lead­ers are encour­ag­ing, or even forc­ing, women to cover up and pull back from the rel­a­tively equal sta­tus they held under Sad­dam Hussein’s reign. (“Rel­a­tive” is the oper­a­tive word here. They were more or less oppressed equally.)
Inter­est­ingly, women attained much of their equal sta­tus in the 1980s dur­ing the Iran-Iraq war, when the men were sent to the front lines to die and women entered the work­force to replace them — a sim­i­lar dynamic to what hap­pened in the United States dur­ing World War II. After the 1991 Gulf War and the impo­si­tion of sanc­tions, how­ever, jobs dis­ap­peared and Sad­dam began encour­ag­ing a reli­gious revival to hold on to power. Women were usu­ally the ones who paid the price, and the _hijab_ became more com­mon as Sunni cler­ics railed against West­ern immoral­ity.
But in the north, the Kurds were one their own. When I was there last July and, more recently, dur­ing the war, I often saw women work­ing in stores or in busi­nesses and not wear­ing head scarves. One of the women, an Arab from Bagh­dad who had moved up to Arbil, worked at the Arbil Tow­ers, the hotel I stayed at, and came out to a Fox News party I attended. The Kur­dish _peshemergas_ at the table seemed not to mind (or notice) as she flirted with one of the network’s cam­era­men.
And Arbil, in the Kur­dis­tan Demo­c­ra­tic Party’s ter­ri­tory, is much more con­ser­v­a­tive than Suleimaniya and the nearby Dukan region, which is con­trolled by the Patri­otic Union of Kur­dis­tan. Women _peshmergas_ are unthink­able to the KDP, but on the day of the lib­er­a­tion of Kirkuk, I ran into an all-woman squad of PUK _peshmergas_, fully armed with Kalash­nikovs and wear­ing the yel­low green head­band of their party. I was sur­prised when I saw them loung­ing in the back of a truck, and it must have showed. They looked at me, then smiled and laughed at my expres­sion.
So Abu Bakr’s appoint­ment is good news, indeed. Now let’s hope the rest of the coun­try can see the good that women such as Sideek Bar­wari and Abu Bakr have done and can do, and learn from their exam­ple.
[NOTE: I had a color-blind moment when I wrote this and said the PUK’s color was yel­low. It’s green.]