Strange doings in Tripoli

TRIPOLI — What the heck is going on up here? That seems to be the big ques­tion at the moment. Last night around 9 p.m., fight­ing started up again between the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam. This prompted spec­u­la­tion that the push against the jihadi group had come, and I raced back up to Tripoli from my spot of being stuck in a check­point just out­side Beirut. (The cap­i­tal is locked down after three bombs this week, so secu­rity is tight.)
Atop the build­ing where the tele­vi­sion crews have set up, the owner of the build­ing — a tightly wound guy in the best of times — car­ried around a Kalash­nikov and threat­ened to shoot any­one who turned on their tele­vi­sion lights.
In the dark­ness, you couldn’t see who was who, and a rumor — goosed, appar­ently by Lebanese mil­i­tary intel­li­gence — swept through the gang that Fatah al-Islam had sent sui­cide bombers through­out the nearby area and one might be on the roof. A quick evac­u­a­tion ensued.
This morn­ing it’s quiet again. The fight­ing stopped around 6 a.m., and we’re back to wait­ing for some­thing to hap­pen.
My feel­ing is that Fuad Siniora’s gov­ern­ment is a bit con­fused, as the Pales­tin­ian issue is a tricky one. The sta­tus of Pales­tini­ans in Lebanon is not a purely inter­nal affair, but one belong­ing to the Arab League thanks to a 1969 agree­ment that keeps Lebanese author­ity out of the 12 camps scat­tered around the coun­try. Fur­ther com­pli­cat­ing mat­ters, the camp isn’t empty. There has been a more or less steady trickle of refugees get­ting out of the camps, either on foot or in cars, but there are still about 18,000 civil­ians in the camp, accord­ing to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
The human­i­tar­ian sit­u­a­tion is grow­ing worse by the hour inside the camp, accord­ing to the Inter­na­tional Com­mit­tee of the Red Cross, and scat­tered demon­stra­tions in other camps have already occurred. More casu­al­ties among civil­ians is going to inflame the Pales­tini­ans in Lebanon — an already seething peo­ple who make up about 10 per­cent of Lebanon’s pop­u­la­tion. Sul­tan Abu Aynan, the head of Lebanon’s branch of Fatah — the main group in the PLO — has warned of a gen­eral upris­ing among the Pales­tini­ans could occur. Other Arab gov­ern­ments have also expressed con­cern over the casu­al­ties (even while they pledge a rush ship­ment of weapons to the Lebanese army.)
So a long siege is unten­able to the Pales­tini­ans and Arab gov­ern­ments around the region. But leav­ing Fatah al-Islam alone is equally unten­able to the Lebanese gov­ern­ment. Going into the camp, no mater how care­fully, will result in hor­rific casu­al­ties among both the Pales­tini­ans and the Lebanese army, per­haps the only state insti­tu­tion almost widely admired by all of Lebanon’s quar­rel­ing con­fes­sional groups. Fur­ther com­pli­cat­ing mat­ters, mem­bers of the oppo­si­tion, led by the Syr­ian– and Iranian-backed Hezbol­lah, camped out in down­town since Dec. 1, have started mak­ing polit­i­cal hay out of this sit­u­a­tion by accus­ing the U.S.-backed gov­ern­ment of incom­pe­tence and dither­ing — charges which aren’t entirely untrue.
I men­tion the var­i­ous back­ers because solv­ing the prob­lem of Fatah al-Islam has impli­ca­tions far beyond the bor­ders of Lebanon. While mass casu­al­ties on the army’s side would be bad, in Lebanon, the fear of the “other” over­rides all. It’s highly unlikely Siniora’s polit­i­cal allies in the Chris­t­ian and Druze camps would desert him no mat­ter how bad a mil­i­tary assault might be.
(On a side note, Saad Hariri, the son of the slain for­mer Prime Min­is­ter Rafik Hariri, urged his sup­port­ers — of which there are many in this con­ser­v­a­tive Sunni area — to help the army. Allegedly, some have taken that to heart because I’ve heard sto­ries from Pales­tini­ans who say Future Move­ment fol­low­ers are shoot­ing into the camp at any­thing that moves. How do they know the bul­lets are from Future Move­ment sup­port­ers? Who knows, but the truth is almost irrel­e­vant in this case; the sus­pi­cions indi­cate the depth of dis­trust between Pales­tini­ans and local res­i­dents up here.)
So while army casu­al­ties would be bad, large num­bers of dead among the Pales­tini­ans would be worse. Arab gov­ern­ments in the region such as Egypt, Jor­dan, Saudi Ara­bia and the var­i­ous Gulf sheikhdoms would be seen by their own restive pop­u­la­tions as help­ing a gov­ern­ment mas­sacre Pales­tini­ans — and it would be an _Arab_ gov­ern­ment doing it. Talk about betrayal! (Al Jazeera, by far the most pop­u­lar news chan­nel through­out the Mid­dle East, “is allegedly push­ing this narrative”:http://beirutspring.com/blog/2007/05/23/why-many-lebanese-are-shunning-aljazeera/, although I can’t ver­ify this just yet.) So Cairo, Amman and oth­ers are watch­ing this sit­u­a­tion very closely.
This would be bad for Sin­iora because he relies not only on sup­port from the West, but from friendly Arab gov­ern­ments who want to check the Iranian-Syrian axis. Weak­en­ing Sin­iora means strength­en­ing Hezbol­lah in Lebanon’s zero-sum pol­i­tics, which would fur­ther strength­en­ing Syria, right when it’s fac­ing a pos­si­ble United Nations Secu­rity Coun­cil res­o­lu­tion that would set up the Hariri tri­bunal under Chap­ter 7.
The com­mon thread in all of this is Syria. Fatah al-Islam is sus­pected of being a Syr­ian mar­i­onette and Hezbol­lah is a Syr­ian ally. With threats from the north, south and east, the lit­tle prime-minister-that-could is rapidly run­ning out of room to maneuver.

Showdown Looming

JUST OUTSIDE NAHR EL-BARED REFUGEE CAMP — Just at the edge of this now dev­as­tated refugee camp, the Lebanese Army is show­ing signs of prepar­ing for a show­down with the “Fatah al-Islam jihadist group”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2007/05/more_violence_and_an_update_on.php.
Trucks full of ammu­ni­tion have been seen rum­bling north on the road from Tripoli toward the camp. Many of the Pales­tin­ian refugees who are able to leave have left, leav­ing fewer civil­ian tar­gets to be hit — although the toll on that end is already crush­ingly high, too high for a peo­ple who have seen noth­ing but pain and hard­ship since 1948.
Since 4:30 p.m. Tues­day, an infor­mal truce has held between the mil­i­tants still holed up in the camp and the Lebanese army, but Fatah al-Islam has vowed to fight “until the last drop of blood” (usu­ally a sign that they’re get­ting close to the last drop) and the Lebanese Defense Min­is­ter Elias Murr told al-Arabiya tele­vi­sion: “Prepa­ra­tions are seri­ously under way to end the mat­ter. The army will not nego­ti­ate with a group of ter­ror­ists and crim­i­nals. Their fate is arrest, and if they resist the army, death.“
At the moment, it’s still quiet up here. But it’s unclear how long that will last.

For those living in and near Palestinian camp, an escape

NAHR EL-BARED, Lebanon — Ali Said Mear­bani, 64, mopped his brow and grate­fully accepted a cool glass of water offered to him by a worker in the cafe. Mear­bani had more rea­sons to be thank­ful, though. He had just escaped Lebanon’s lat­est war zone.
Mear­bani lives in the vil­lage of Ard al Hamra, which bor­ders Nahr el-Bared, the teem­ing Pales­tin­ian camp that for the last three days has been bru­tal­ized by a vol­ley of tank shells, 155mm mor­tar rounds and machine gun fire from the Lebanese Army, which is in a fierce bat­tle with Fatah al-Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group.
Early Sun­day morn­ing, his four-story home was invaded by the jihadis, who forced him, his wife, his three daugh­ters and his daughter-in-law into the base­ment before tak­ing up sniper posi­tions on his roof.
“They told us, ‘We won’t leave unless we’re dead,’” said Mear­bani as he jug­gled cell phone calls from con­cerned rel­a­tives.
Three of the four were for­eign, he said, say­ing he could tell from their accents that one was from Saudi Ara­bia, one was from Yemen and one was Sudanese. He said he couldn’t tell where the fourth was from.
Finally, after a ter­ri­fy­ing night with his chil­dren hud­dled around him while shells fell around them, the women in the fam­ily — his wife and his daughter-in-law — went up to beg the Fatah al-Islam mil­i­tants to leave them in peace.
They refused and soon the Lebanese Army was shelling his home. He only escaped because he had a friend in the Lebanese Army and was able to tell him where they were and what check­point he was near. The friend, a sergeant, told him to wear a white T-shirt so the Army would know he meant no harm. He did, and the Army spir­ited him out to safety.
Lebanese and not a Pales­tin­ian, he praised the Army for fir­ing on every sniper posi­tion Fatah al-Islam had taken up.
“Even when they were hid­ing in a mosque,” he said, “the army shot at the mosque.“
Walk­ing out of his home and through his vil­lage, he said he passed at least 10 dead bod­ies. “They were not from the camp, so I assume they were ter­ror­ists.“
Such scenes will be increas­ingly com­mon when Lebanon’s lat­est vio­lence even­tu­ally winds down. By the end of the day Tues­day, the death toll stood at about 67 peo­ple and thou­sands of refugees were stream­ing from the camp wav­ing any­thing col­ored white.
At least 30 Lebanese Army sol­diers, 18 mil­i­tants and 19 civil­ians have been killed since Sun­day in the worst vio­lence to hit Lebanon since the end of its 1975 – 90 civil war, accord­ing to Army and Pales­tin­ian sources.
One civil defense worker in charge of col­lect­ing bod­ies, who gave his name only as Mazen, said there were “lots of bod­ies” just inside the north entrance to the camp where Fatah al-Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group with an al Qaeda-inspired ide­ol­ogy and pos­si­ble ties to Syria, was hold­ing out against hun­dreds of Lebanese troops. He didn’t know, how­ever, if they were fight­ers or civil­ians.
For the past three days, Fatah al-Islam’s posi­tions have been ham­mered by 155mm mor­tars, tank blasts and 50-caliber machine gun fire from the army, but so far they seem to be hold­ing fast.
As the worker moved to col­lect more bod­ies, Lebanese troops rolled up to the secured entrance to the cheers of dozens of young men from the the sur­round­ing area. Atop their armored per­son­nel car­ri­ers, the sol­diers grinned and flashed vic­tory signs.
Khoder Taleb, 36, the regional man­ager for the civil defense forces, said Fatah al-Islam had “hun­dreds” of fight­ers and that many were for­eign. He said that two bod­ies around the cor­ner, near the check­point and which reporters were not allowed to see, were burned because of an explo­sion, but their iden­tity papers on them said they were Bangladeshis. There was no way to con­firm this.
Another civil defense worker showed this reporter a photo of one of the bod­ies on his cell phone he said he had snapped and offered to take the reporter’s phone to snap more pho­tos of the bod­ies. Taleb pre­vented him from doing so, how­ever.
Around mid-day, a United Nations con­voy entered Nahr el-Bared loaded with food, water, med­i­cine and even gen­er­a­tors for the camp, which has been cut off from most sup­plies since the fight­ing started on Sun­day. Taleb al Sal­hani, a secu­rity offi­cer for the con­voy, said he was wait­ing for a cease-fire to be put in place before he would send his trucks in.
It was in vain, how­ever, as when a truce appeared to be in place by late after­noon, his con­voy was attacked while it was in the camp unload­ing its good. Robin Cook, Lebanon direc­tor for the UNRWA, said seven trucks went in, but three were dis­abled and were aban­doned in the camp.
The Pales­tini­ans aren’t much liked by the Lebanese, who often blame them for start­ing the civil war in 1975. Pales­tini­ans, in turn, aren’t too fond of the Lebanese who host them because Beirut won’t grant them cit­i­zen­ship or allow them to work in almost 70 pro­fes­sions, con­sign­ing most of the 350,000 refugees to poverty.
Tuesday’s fight­ing con­tin­ued inter­mit­tently through­out the day, with a long truce start­ing at about 4:30 and appar­ently hold­ing so far through the night. Up to 10,000 pan­icked and mis­er­able Pales­tini­ans have taken this oppor­tu­nity to flee to another nearby refugee camp, Bed­dawi, also near Tripoli. Many hung white sheets from their vehi­cles or held white plas­tic bags out the win­dows. So des­per­ate to escape that many were dri­ving on flat tires.
By all accounts, they’re flee­ing what many Pales­tini­ans call a mas­sacre.
Between 30,000 and 40,000 peo­ple are wedged into a tiny area, barely a few square miles in size. Fatah al-Islam has taken over build­ings in the area and in sur­round­ing ham­lets, often with­out fully eject­ing the fam­i­lies liv­ing there. The Lebanese Army, in turn, is shelling those build­ings, and often reduc­ing them to rub­ble.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has said that dozens of build­ings have been destroyed with the res­i­dents inside. The total num­ber of casu­al­ties has so far been impos­si­ble to deter­mine, how­ever, as the Lebanese Red Cross has not been inside the camp yet. Joseph Boutrous, the North Dis­trict chief of logis­tics for the LRC, said his men had man­aged to get to hos­pi­tals 17 wounded civil­ians on Mon­day and 10 wounded by mid-day Tues­day.
“We have 15 cars wait­ing to go in if we get a cease fire,” he said, sur­rounded by eager men ready to go in.
Later that day, a ten­ta­tive truce took hold and his men took off. There is as yet no con­fir­ma­tion on the num­ber of civil­ians wounded or killed.

Two buses blown up in Christian area

BEIRUT — Bombs destroyed two com­muter buses today in the small Chris­t­ian com­mu­nity of Ain Alaq, in the moun­tains north of Beirut.
Reports of fatal­i­ties var­ied, but ranged from three (Red Cross, secu­rity forces) to 12 (LBC and other media sources.) Ten to 20 were wounded. The first bomb was appar­ently attached to the under­car­riage of the first bus while the sec­ond was in a back seat on the sec­ond, accord­ing to my fixer, who is try­ing to find more info. I’ll update if this changes.
The wounded were civil­ians pos­si­bly trav­el­ing to work, mark­ing a change in the “two-year cam­paign of bomb­ings and assassinations”:http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13582123.htm that has wracked Lebanon since the killing of Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Before, the attacks were either tar­geted assas­si­na­tions of well-known anti-Syrian politi­cians and jour­nal­ists or small bombs exploded in build­ings late at night so as to min­i­mize casu­al­ties. This seems aimed at Iraq– or Israel-style ter­ror. Ran­dom, any­where, piti­less.
Details are still emerg­ing, but spec­u­la­tion is ram­pant. Was this Syria? Hezbol­lah? CIA? (A Hezbol­lah spokesman said it was the lat­ter.) Was it a warn­ing to the March 14 coali­tion not to attend the big rally planned for down­town tomor­row to mark the two-year anniver­sary of Hariri’s death?
One intrigu­ing con­nec­tion is to Elias Murr, Lebanon’s defense min­is­ter. The buses orig­i­nated in Bteghrin, the home of the Murr fam­ily — they’re the major clan there — and some have won­dered if this could be a response to Murr’s “refusal last week to return a truck full of Hezbol­lah weapons”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6345761.stm inter­cepted by the Lebanese Army?
Elias Murr was the tar­get of a failed assas­si­na­tion in July 2005.
I’m not con­vinced of that, as it would be a com­plete turn-around for Hezbol­lah, who have not (yet) turned their weapons on their fel­low Lebanese — a point of pride for the group.
Also, the attack hap­pened near Bik­faya, the ances­tral home of the Gemayel clan. Sev­eral of the dead were Gemayels. Lebanon’s indus­try min­is­ter, Pierre Gemayel “was assassinated”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/2006/11/pierre_gemayel_has_been_assass.php in Novem­ber.
Michel Murr, the defense minister’s father, was at the site of the bomb­ing and said it was a mes­sage for all Lebanese to come together and tran­scend pol­i­tics. That’s a nice sen­ti­ment, but it’s almost assuredly _not_ the mes­sage the bombers were try­ing to send.
More likely, it was a warn­ing to March 14.
“They are try­ing to sab­o­tage tomorrow’s meet­ing,” said Ahmad Fat­fat, the for­mer inte­rior min­is­ter. “They are try­ing to divide the Chris­tians. … The peo­ple who are doing this don’t want the peo­ple to come together and it’s another link in the chain” of assas­si­na­tions.
“I can­not believe any Lebanese is capa­ble of doing such a ter­ri­ble thing,” he added.
Fat­fat also said the bombs were placed on the buses yes­ter­day, although he declined to say how he knew that.
Obvi­ously, Fat­fat is not-so-subtlely point­ing the fin­ger at Syria. A Hezbol­lah spokesman said the same thing, but blamed the CIA instead of Syria.
I wit­nessed this in Iraq, too, by the way, early in the insur­gency. In 2004, when the vio­lence was much more spo­radic and rare than it is now, Iraqis would often tell me, “These bombs could not come from Iraqis. No Iraqi would hurt another Iraqi. This must be the Israelis or CIA.“
There’s always a nat­ural ten­dency to believe that out­siders are the ones doing the killing. Wit­ness the imme­di­ate reac­tion to the Mur­rah Build­ing in 1995. Every­one imme­di­ately sus­pected Arab ter­ror­ism, not home-grown white suprema­cists.
But right now, espe­cially on the eve of the anniver­sary of the killing of Hariri, every­one in Lebanon — Hezbol­lah, March 14, etc. — is bank­ing on national unity for their own pur­poses. “Hariri was for all of us,” as many say. Other par­ties — Syria, espe­cially, but pos­si­bly Israel — would love to see Lebanese at each oth­ers’ throats. Syria could use any vio­lence as an “I told you so” excuse to inter­vene again, and Israel prob­a­bly wouldn’t mind see­ing Hezbol­lah on the defen­sive in its own coun­try.
(Mind you, I’m not accus­ing Israel of today’s bomb­ing; I’m just ana­lyz­ing who might stand to gain from Lebanese dis­cord.)
*UNRELATED (?) NEWS:* The Grand Mufti of Lebanon, Sheikh Moham­mad Rashid Qab­bani, the high­est rank­ing Sunni cleric in coun­try, claims in a press release to LBC that he was heck­led and threat­ened by the pro-Syrian, Hezbollah-led March 8 pro­test­ers as he led prayers at Hariri’s grave in Martyr’s Square down­town today. He says he was told to leave or they would burn his car.
(March 8 is a coali­tion of mostly Shi’ite par­ties and some Chris­tians, and includes Hezbol­lah, Amal, the Syr­ian Social Nation­al­ist Party and the Chris­t­ian par­ties of Michel Aoun and Suleiman Fran­jieh. With the excep­tion of Aoun, they are all solidly pro-Syrian. Aoun just wants to be pres­i­dent and will hitch his horse to whichever wagon he thinks will win.)
Also, in this morning’s _San Fran­cisco Chronicle_, I have a story about the “rearm­ing of the Lebanese factions.”:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/02/13/MNG62O3F5U1.DTL&hw=allbritton&sn=001&sc=1000 It might become very rel­e­vant after today.

Beirut in flames

hard_days_work.jpg
An oppo­si­tion mem­ber cra­dles the head of an exhausted com­rade as they take a break from block­ing roads in Beirut on Tues­day © 2007 Christo­pher Allbrit­ton
BEIRUT — If there was any ques­tion whether Hezbol­lah was in con­trol of the sit­u­a­tion here fol­low­ing the vio­lence of Tues­day, the fight­ing today should con­vince those that it is not, and the sit­u­a­tion is about to be seri­ously out of con­trol.
To back up a lit­tle, Tuesday’s vio­lence seemed to shock even the lead­ers of Hezbol­lah, both because its Aounists and Amal allies behaved like hooli­gans, but also because the fol­low­ers of Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea refused to back down and matched slo­gan with slo­gan, stick with stick, stone with stone.
At one neigh­bor­hood in Beirut, where the fight­ing was fiercest, the largely Sunni sup­port­ers of al-Mustaqbal chanted their sup­port for Amer­ica (in response to the chants of “Iran! Iran!” and “Bashar! Syria!” by Amal sup­port­ers across the street.) They also, bizarrely, hoisted a poster of Sad­dam Hus­sein, indi­cat­ing that the Sunni-Shi’a con­flict from Iraq has poi­soned the atmos­phere in Lebanon now, too.
This is about to be a full-on sec­tar­ian clash between Sun­nis and Shi’a and within the Chris­t­ian com­mu­nity.
That’s why Hezbol­lah and its allies called off their strike after a day, despite many promises by the men on the street I saw who said they would con­tinue the strike “for days,” if nec­es­sary.
“Do you not think Hezbol­lah loves Lebanon?” asked Bilal, a Hezbol­lah sup­porter I spoke with as his com­pa­tri­ots burned a car to block the road lead­ing the air­port. “Of course we do, which is why we are pre­pared to stay out here for days, weeks.“
More omi­nously, today’s vio­lence shows that Hezbol­lah no longer con­trols the oppo­si­tion move­ment it cre­ated. Months of ani­mos­ity over the war, the par­lia­men­tary paral­y­sis and calls for chang­ing the gov­ern­ment has hard­ened posi­tions among the Sunni, who increas­ingly see the Shi’a as respon­si­ble for last summer’s war and more loyal to Iran than to Lebanon. In short, the Shi’ite mil­i­tant group has pushed its polit­i­cal oppo­nents too far.
Already this has spread beyond the cap­i­tal. The Lebanese Army has been deployed to Chtoura and Baal­bak in the Bekaa and there are as yet uncon­firmed reports that the road to old road to Sidon has been closed. By whom, we don’t know.
Four peo­ple are dead and at least 25 injured and while this flare-up might be con­tained, the next one appears inevitable. And next time it won’t be fought with sticks and stones.