For those living in and near Palestinian camp, an escape

NAHR EL-​BARED, Lebanon — Ali Said Mear­bani, 64, mopped his brow and grate­fully accepted a cool glass of water offered to him by a worker in the café. Mear­bani had more rea­sons to be thank­ful, though. He had just escaped Lebanon’s lat­est war zone.
Mear­bani lives in the vil­lage of Ard al Hamra, which bor­ders Nahr el-​Bared, the teem­ing Pales­tin­ian camp that for the last three days has been bru­tal­ized by a vol­ley of tank shells, 155mm mor­tar rounds and machine gun fire from the Lebanese Army, which is in a fierce bat­tle with Fatah al-​Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group.
Early Sun­day morn­ing, his four-​story home was invaded by the jihadis, who forced him, his wife, his three daugh­ters and his daughter-​in-​law into the base­ment before tak­ing up sniper posi­tions on his roof.
“They told us, ‘We won’t leave unless we’re dead,’” said Mear­bani as he jug­gled cell phone calls from con­cerned rel­a­tives.
Three of the four were for­eign, he said, say­ing he could tell from their accents that one was from Saudi Ara­bia, one was from Yemen and one was Sudanese. He said he couldn’t tell where the fourth was from.
Finally, after a ter­ri­fy­ing night with his chil­dren hud­dled around him while shells fell around them, the women in the fam­ily — his wife and his daughter-​in-​law — went up to beg the Fatah al-​Islam mil­i­tants to leave them in peace.
They refused and soon the Lebanese Army was shelling his home. He only escaped because he had a friend in the Lebanese Army and was able to tell him where they were and what check­point he was near. The friend, a sergeant, told him to wear a white T-​shirt so the Army would know he meant no harm. He did, and the Army spir­ited him out to safety.
Lebanese and not a Pales­tin­ian, he praised the Army for fir­ing on every sniper posi­tion Fatah al-​Islam had taken up.
“Even when they were hid­ing in a mosque,” he said, “the army shot at the mosque.“
Walk­ing out of his home and through his vil­lage, he said he passed at least 10 dead bod­ies. “They were not from the camp, so I assume they were ter­ror­ists.“
Such scenes will be increas­ingly com­mon when Lebanon’s lat­est vio­lence even­tu­ally winds down. By the end of the day Tues­day, the death toll stood at about 67 peo­ple and thou­sands of refugees were stream­ing from the camp wav­ing any­thing col­ored white.
At least 30 Lebanese Army sol­diers, 18 mil­i­tants and 19 civil­ians have been killed since Sun­day in the worst vio­lence to hit Lebanon since the end of its 197590 civil war, accord­ing to Army and Pales­tin­ian sources.
One civil defense worker in charge of col­lect­ing bod­ies, who gave his name only as Mazen, said there were “lots of bod­ies” just inside the north entrance to the camp where Fatah al-​Islam, a rad­i­cal jihadist group with an al Qaeda-​inspired ide­ol­ogy and pos­si­ble ties to Syria, was hold­ing out against hun­dreds of Lebanese troops. He didn’t know, how­ever, if they were fight­ers or civil­ians.
For the past three days, Fatah al-Islam’s posi­tions have been ham­mered by 155mm mor­tars, tank blasts and 50-​caliber machine gun fire from the army, but so far they seem to be hold­ing fast.
As the worker moved to col­lect more bod­ies, Lebanese troops rolled up to the secured entrance to the cheers of dozens of young men from the the sur­round­ing area. Atop their armored per­son­nel car­ri­ers, the sol­diers grinned and flashed vic­tory signs.
Khoder Taleb, 36, the regional man­ager for the civil defense forces, said Fatah al-​Islam had “hun­dreds” of fight­ers and that many were for­eign. He said that two bod­ies around the cor­ner, near the check­point and which reporters were not allowed to see, were burned because of an explo­sion, but their iden­tity papers on them said they were Bangladeshis. There was no way to con­firm this.
Another civil defense worker showed this reporter a photo of one of the bod­ies on his cell phone he said he had snapped and offered to take the reporter’s phone to snap more pho­tos of the bod­ies. Taleb pre­vented him from doing so, how­ever.
Around mid-​day, a United Nations con­voy entered Nahr el-​Bared loaded with food, water, med­i­cine and even gen­er­a­tors for the camp, which has been cut off from most sup­plies since the fight­ing started on Sun­day. Taleb al Sal­hani, a secu­rity offi­cer for the con­voy, said he was wait­ing for a cease-​fire to be put in place before he would send his trucks in.
It was in vain, how­ever, as when a truce appeared to be in place by late after­noon, his con­voy was attacked while it was in the camp unload­ing its good. Robin Cook, Lebanon direc­tor for the UNRWA, said seven trucks went in, but three were dis­abled and were aban­doned in the camp.
The Pales­tini­ans aren’t much liked by the Lebanese, who often blame them for start­ing the civil war in 1975. Pales­tini­ans, in turn, aren’t too fond of the Lebanese who host them because Beirut won’t grant them cit­i­zen­ship or allow them to work in almost 70 pro­fes­sions, con­sign­ing most of the 350,000 refugees to poverty.
Tuesday’s fight­ing con­tin­ued inter­mit­tently through­out the day, with a long truce start­ing at about 4:30 and appar­ently hold­ing so far through the night. Up to 10,000 pan­icked and mis­er­able Pales­tini­ans have taken this oppor­tu­nity to flee to another nearby refugee camp, Bed­dawi, also near Tripoli. Many hung white sheets from their vehi­cles or held white plas­tic bags out the win­dows. So des­per­ate to escape that many were dri­ving on flat tires.
By all accounts, they’re flee­ing what many Pales­tini­ans call a mas­sacre.
Between 30,000 and 40,000 peo­ple are wedged into a tiny area, barely a few square miles in size. Fatah al-​Islam has taken over build­ings in the area and in sur­round­ing ham­lets, often with­out fully eject­ing the fam­i­lies liv­ing there. The Lebanese Army, in turn, is shelling those build­ings, and often reduc­ing them to rub­ble.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has said that dozens of build­ings have been destroyed with the res­i­dents inside. The total num­ber of casu­al­ties has so far been impos­si­ble to deter­mine, how­ever, as the Lebanese Red Cross has not been inside the camp yet. Joseph Boutrous, the North Dis­trict chief of logis­tics for the LRC, said his men had man­aged to get to hos­pi­tals 17 wounded civil­ians on Mon­day and 10 wounded by mid-​day Tues­day.
“We have 15 cars wait­ing to go in if we get a cease fire,” he said, sur­rounded by eager men ready to go in.
Later that day, a ten­ta­tive truce took hold and his men took off. There is as yet no con­fir­ma­tion on the num­ber of civil­ians wounded or killed.

Scene from the North

Here’s the story I filed for the San Fran­cisco Chron­i­cle last night,giv­ing you a sense of the scene up around the Nahr el-​Bared camp. It’s grim:

Across the street, black smog bil­lowed over the camp while half a dozen build­ings blazed. Sniper fire crack­led in the air as the army pounded the camp with 120mm mor­tar and tank shells. Fatah al-​Islam mil­i­tants responded with rocket pro­pelled grenade launch­ers and machine-​gun fire.
Dense orange groves sur­round­ing the camp were scorched from explo­sions while the army seemed to method­i­cally lob shells on a spe­cific sec­tor of the camp, set­ting a num­ber of build­ings on fire before mov­ing on.
Con­di­tions in the camp — a mis­er­able war­ren of alley­ways and cin­derblock homes hous­ing between 30,000 and 40,000 peo­ple – are grim. A source at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency in New York said it was impos­si­ble for camp med­ical work­ers to get to the dead and wounded. Water and elec­tricty have been cut off and about 50 for­eign­ers — many of the West­ern­ers — are hun­kered down as their embassies work to get a cease fire in place so they can be evacuated.

I’m head­ing up in a cou­ple of hours. Word is a UN con­voy is going to try to get into the camp.

Bombing in Beirut Caps Day of Violence in Lebanon

BEIRUT — Lebanon was rocked by vio­lence today with dozens killed in fight­ing in the country’s north and a car bomb in a pre­dom­i­nantly Chris­t­ian neigh­bor­hood of Beirut that killed one per­son and wounded up to a dozen.
“The day started with clashes in the north­ern city of Tripoli”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070520/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_violence;_ylt=Aksp6EN.OKSYmUdJcZiKdcULewgF between the Lebanese Army and the Pales­tin­ian mil­i­tant group, “Fatah al-Islam”:http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/20/africa/ME-GEN-Lebanon-Violence-Militants.php, which the Lebanese gov­ern­ment says is backed by Syria and shares an ide­ol­ogy with al Qaida. At least 22 sol­diers and 17 mil­i­tants were killed in fight­ing that lasted through much of the day.
But by the time calm had been imposed up north, a car bomb shat­tered win­dows and col­lapsed a build­ing in the east Beirut neigh­bor­hood of Acrafiyeh. Reports say a woman was killed and about a dozen wounded.
The bomb was placed in a car lot next to the pop­u­lar ABC Achrafiyeh mall, and the tim­ing of the blast — at 11:40 p.m. — sug­gested that its intent was to cause panic and fear among the crowd exit­ing the movie the­aters at the mall.
“It was just to scare peo­ple,” said a man in the car lot who declined to be iden­ti­fied. “If they really wanted to cause dam­age, they would have put it in the park­ing garage.“
As the AP reports:

The bomb left a crater about 4 feet deep and 9 feet wide, and police said the explo­sives were esti­mated to weigh 22 pounds. The blast — heard across the city — gut­ted cars, set vehi­cles ablaze and shat­tered store and apart­ment windows.

Hamid and Clau­dine Sal­iba, both 39, live across the street from the park­ing lot where the car exploded.
“In Lebanon, you expect any­thing,” said Clau­dine, and after today’s vio­lence up north, she and her hus­band were on guard. “But not in Achrafiyeh!“
They spoke from Hamid’s mother’s home, which is two doors down from their own, and the dev­as­ta­tion in the house was near total. Grace­ful Ottoman win­dows jambs were ripped from the walls and heavy doors torn from their hinges. Luck­ily for Hamid, his mother had left the house on vaca­tion two days pre­vi­ously, so there were no injuries.
This is the lat­est in a string of car bombs that many in Lebanon sus­pect is aimed at desta­bi­liz­ing the coun­try so that Syria can re-​impose its hege­mony it enjoyed for 29 years.
Ini­tially wel­comed as pro­tec­tors dur­ing Lebanon’s 15-​year-​long civil war, Syr­ian main­tained an iron con­trol over Lebanon after the war ended, effec­tively occu­py­ing it from 19902005, when it with­drew its troops. The with­drawal was forced upon Dam­as­cus fol­low­ing mas­sive pop­u­lar protests, which the Lebanese call the “inde­pen­dence upris­ing,” in the wake of the assas­si­na­tion of for­mer Prime Min­is­ter Rafik Hariri. Many in Lebanon blame Syria for that killing and the waves of vio­lence that have fol­lowed.
Lebanon has been on a knife’s edge since Decem­ber of last year when Hezbol­lah and its allies, who sup­port Syria, pulled out of the gov­ern­ment in protest over leg­is­la­tion form­ing an inter­na­tional tri­bunal that would han­dle the Hariri case. Syria and its sup­port­ers vehe­mently oppose the tri­bunal, forc­ing the Lebanese gov­ern­ment to peti­tion the United Nations to impose the tri­bunal under Chap­ter 7 of the UN Char­ter, mean­ing it does not require Lebanese par­lia­men­tary approval. The tri­bunal is widely expected to indict high-​level mem­bers of the Syr­ian régime, includ­ing the brother-​in-​law of Syr­ian Pres­i­dent Bashar al-​Assad.
Tonight’s bomb­ing — which may or may not be tied to the fight­ing in the north — could be seen as a mes­sage that Syria’s agents in Lebanon are pre­pared to unleash more vio­lence if the tri­bunal is imposed on Lebanon.

Death of a Scientist

Some bad news of a per­sonal nature out of Iraq today. A sci­en­tist friend of my for­mer fixer in Iraq was shot and killed in traf­fic Mon­day:

BAGHDAD — A lead­ing Iraqi aca­d­e­mic and promi­nent hard­line Sunni polit­i­cal activist was fatally shot by three gun­men Mon­day as he was leav­ing his Bagh­dad home, police said.
The killers escaped in a car after gun­ning down Essam al-​Rawi, head of the Uni­ver­sity Professor’s Union and a senior mem­ber of the influ­en­tial Asso­ci­a­tion of Mus­lim Schol­ars, accord­ing to police Lt. Maitham Abdul-​Razaq.
The asso­ci­a­tion is a Sunni orga­ni­za­tion believed to have links to the insur­gency rag­ing against U.S. forces and their Iraqi allies. The group has boy­cotted elec­tions and stood aside from the polit­i­cal process.
An asso­ci­a­tion offi­cial con­firmed the killing of al-​Rawi, a geol­o­gist, say­ing he was behind the wheel of his car and had just left his home for the drive to work at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity accom­pa­nied by two body­guards.
The gun­men drove in front of al-Rawi’s car, forced it to stop, then sprayed it with auto­matic weapons fire, said the offi­cial, who spoke on con­di­tion of anonymity because he feared reprisal. One of al-Rawi’s body­guards was killed and the other was wounded, the offi­cial said.

I wrote about Dr. Al-​Rawi in June 2004 for Seed Mag­a­zine, shortly after I got back to Iraq. I don’t remem­ber if the story ever ran or not as there was a pay­ment dis­pute, but here’s the story I wrote:

The sci­en­tists among the shell cas­ings
BAGHDAD — Dr. Isam al-​Rawi, a geol­o­gist at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity, sweeps his hand over a set of dog-​eared jour­nals. The arc of his ges­ture con­tin­ues on to include a bare lab­o­ra­tory with a few slices of rock sam­ples, a sag­ging chair and a drip­ping sink. The room is mean, long and nar­row, with barely enough room for a col­league to squeeze past al-​Rawi car­ry­ing a tray of glasses filled to their chipped rims with Sprite. Finally his hand returns to the jour­nals and books, and he points an accus­ing fin­ger at them.
“I am a uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sor,” he says. “I need books!“
Indeed, he needs a lot more than that, but few things sum up the cur­rent state of Iraq’s sci­en­tific cri­sis more than its lack of books and jour­nals. Al-Rawi’s most recent acqui­si­tion is a pho­to­copied ver­sion of the 1998 edi­tion of the Atlas of Rock Form­ing Min­er­als, which he bought in Libya on his last trip out­side Iraq. His most recent jour­nal, a copy of the Geo­log­i­cal Soci­ety of Amer­ica Bul­letin, dates to August 1985. To a one, his books and jour­nals are old, out of date and falling apart, much like the country’s sci­en­tific com­mu­nity itself.
Before the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq’s sci­en­tists were some of the most respected in the region and they made a good liv­ing. The country’s uni­ver­si­ties churned out engi­neers, tech­ni­cians and Ph.D.s. They often did post-​graduate work in the West and had access to the world’s sci­en­tific lit­er­a­ture. They trav­eled to sci­en­tific con­fer­ences all over the world.
But things started to get bad in the mid-​1980s when the Iran-​Iraq war was rag­ing; Sad­dam Hus­sein began restrict­ing access to sci­en­tific jour­nals. After the dis­as­trous 1991 war and the impo­si­tions of sanc­tions, things took an even graver turn. Salaries plum­meted. Al-Rawi’s monthly income went from about $2,000 a month before the 1991 war to about $400 a month. New sci­en­tists and pro­fes­sors earned about $100 a month. They could not travel; they could not sub­scribe to peri­od­i­cals, as they were for­bid­den by the sanc­tions régime. New books were too expen­sive. Much needed equip­ment, which was often marked as “dual use,” was pre­vented from enter­ing the coun­try. The Mid­dle East’s most advanced sci­en­tific com­mu­nity was effec­tively sealed up in a time cap­sule.
But now, even with most of the restric­tions gone, things are still hard 15 months after Sad­dam Hus­sein was removed from power. While sci­en­tists are no longer pre­vented from order­ing new books and jour­nals and are allowed to leave the coun­try, they often can’t for the sim­ple rea­son that they have no money to do so. And a sin­is­ter series of killings has ter­ri­fied and dec­i­mated the sci­en­tific com­mu­nity. In mid-​June, Sabri Al-​Bayati, pro­fes­sor of telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions at the col­lege of Sci­ence and Edu­ca­tion at Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity was shot dead near his home in the Bab Al-​Athamiya area in cen­tral Baghdad.‏ A few days pre­vi­ously, a physi­cian, Dr. Mohammed Abdul­lah Faleh al-​Rawi (no rela­tion), was killed while sit­ting in traf­fic. Their deaths are just two of about 250 uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sors, med­ical doc­tors and engi­neers who have been killed since May 1, 2003.
“No one knows why, no one knows who,” al-​Rawi says, and flicked his prayer beads back and forth.
In such an envi­ron­ment, there is no work on new research, says Dr. Nuhad Ali, a mechan­i­cal engi­neer at the uni­ver­sity. The only money being spent is to keep up the salaries of the pro­fes­sors, and the only new equip­ment are some com­put­ers paid for with the now-​defunct oil-​for-​food pro­gram. The uni­ver­si­ties aren’t even accept­ing new grad­u­ate stu­dents, Ali says. All cur­rent grad­u­ate stu­dents, who used to receive a monthly stipend, were enrolled before the war.
But not all is hope­less, two solid state physi­cists, Dr. Izzat al-​Essa and Dr. Raed al-​Haddend, says they had been able to attend the Saudi Solid State Physics con­fer­ence in Riyadh in March. The praised the lift­ing of travel restric­tions, but says it was still very expen­sive.
Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity was also lucky. Almost every other uni­ver­sity in the coun­try was looted in the civil unrest fol­low­ing the fall of Bagh­dad. But Amer­i­can troops decided to bivouac on the cam­puses of Bagh­dad Uni­ver­sity and the nearby Al-​Nahrain Uni­ver­sity néé Sad­dam Hus­sein Uni­ver­sity. Their pres­ence pre­vented the whole­sale loot­ing of every­thing down to elec­tri­cal fix­tures that was going on just across town at al-​Mustansiriya Uni­ver­sity.
So now the sci­en­tific com­mu­nity must rebuild with lim­ited finan­cial resources in a secu­rity vac­uum. It’s no won­der there’s an abid­ing sense of hope­less­ness among the pro­fes­sors. Al-​Essa and al-​Haddend dream of X-​ray machines, elec­tron micro­scopes and FT-​IR spec­trom­e­ters. Al-​Rawi wants to replace his 1974 X-​ray flu­o­res­cence machine so he can ana­lyze some rock sec­tions he recently took near Perispike in the Kur­dish area of north­ern Iraq. Dr. Emad T. Bakir, an indus­trial chemist with a spe­cialty in poly­mers, hopes for research assis­tants, cat­a­lysts and sol­vents.
But the money is sim­ply not there. The for­mer admin­is­tra­tor for the now-​dissolved Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity L. Paul Bre­mer III was found of say­ing, “Iraq is a rich coun­try that is tem­porar­ily poor.” The new gov­ern­ment is inher­it­ing many of Iraq’s old debts, includ­ing $29.8 bil­lion for war repa­ra­tions to Saudi Ara­bia and Kuwait, but the Tran­si­tional Admin­is­tra­tive Law, which is the work­ing con­sti­tu­tion for the interim gov­ern­ment, for­bids deficit spend­ing. All min­istries, includ­ing the Min­istry of Higher Edu­ca­tion, headed by Dr. Taher Kha­laf Jabur al-​Bakaa, are feel­ing the vice grip of national poverty. The min­is­ter doesn’t even have a bullet-​proof vest; he can’t afford one.
But if Iraqis are good at any­thing, it’s hop­ing. The sci­en­tific com­mu­nity is no excep­tion. Fuel­ing this hope is a promise promise from Bre­mer. Before he left June 28, he said he would attempt to increase com­mu­ni­ca­tions between Amer­i­can sci­en­tists at uni­ver­si­ties and their Iraqi coun­ter­parts. An Iraqi del­e­ga­tion recently returned from the Uni­ver­sity of Okla­homa whose pres­i­dent Bre­mer went to school with.
“We hope our friends in Amer­ica and Eng­land will come to see what has hap­pened to us,” says al-​Rawi.

It should be noted that almost all of the mur­ders of uni­ver­sity pro­fes­sors have gone unsolved. Al-​Rawi was work­ing to change that when he became a vic­tim himself.

Zarqawi Killed in Airstrike

zarqawi_release_04.jpg

Photo cour­tesy of Intel­Cen­ter

In a cru­cial devel­op­ment, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, “Abu Musab al-Zarqawi”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/blog-mt/mt-search.cgi?IncludeBlogs=1&search=Zarqawi, has been killed in an airstrike north of Baqouba in Iraq, Iraqi prime min­is­ter Nuri al-​Maliki is say­ing right now. Also, later today, Maliki says he will present his can­di­dates for Defense and Inte­rior min­is­ters. These two sto­ries are intri­cately related.
Details are very sketchy, obvi­ously, as this is break­ing now, but Maliki, U.S. ambas­sador Zal­may Khalilzad and Amer­i­can com­man­der Gen. George Casey said a reli­able tip on Zarqawi’s loca­tion came in and allowed the U.S. to call in the bombers. The attack occurred last night at about 6 p.m., BBC says, and he may have been betrayed by some­one in his inner cir­cle. Zarqawi’s body was iden­ti­fied by facial recog­ni­tion, Casey said.
[ADD 2:57:40 PM +0200 GMT: Intrigu­ing detail: Jor­dan­ian intel­li­gence was involved, appar­ently. No friend of AMZ they, see­ing as they had a num­ber of scores to set­tle with the guy. But con­sid­er­ing Jordan’s ties with the Ba’athist insur­gency, which mostly hated AMZ, this looks more and more like the Ba’athists saw the time had come to turn in AMZ to cement the polit­i­cal deal in Bagh­dad.]
If true, and this should be a very big con­di­tional, This is a big, _​big_​suc­cess for the Iraqis and the Amer­i­cans. Zar­qawi wasn’t the sole force behind the insur­gency, but he was the dri­ving per­son­al­ity behind the _​jihad_​aspect of the Sunni fight­ing, which has much larger influ­ence within the Iraqi insur­gency than the size of its ros­ter would sug­gest. It was his con­nec­tions that brought in a lot of money from the Gulf, and with that cash and influ­ence was able to bleed off some of the Ba’athists and Iraqi Islamists to his part of the insur­gency.
*Also, this indi­cates that bring­ing the Sun­nis into the gov­ern­ment seems to has worked.* One of the gam­bles of bring­ing the Sun­nis in was to see if they could start ramp­ing down the vio­lence through tips, turn-​ins and gen­eral coöper­a­tion. That has always been the cen­tral ques­tion: Do the Sun­nis in gov­ern­ment have con­trol over their fac­tions in the insur­gency? I’ve argued here that they don’t, but if today’s news is true, I may very well need to admit I was wrong on that. Gut feel­ing is that I was.
Casey said they got infor­ma­tion on the safe­house where Zar­qawi was hid­ing from local tips, so that indi­cates the Sun­nis have started coop­er­at­ing with Maliki’s gov­ern­ment, which means this gov­ern­ment may hold up after all. But it is impor­tant to real­ize that this will _​not_​end the insur­gency. It has numer­ous fac­tions, not all who are loyal to Zar­qawi (obvi­ously, since some­one tipped the Amer­i­cans off.) And it won’t end the sec­tar­ian vio­lence, because Shi’ite death squads are still oper­at­ing out of the Inte­rior min­istry and other police forces and many Sunni insur­gents are not for­eign jihadis. They have their own fight with the mainly Shi’ite Maliki gov­ern­ment, which they see as a tool of Iran. Remem­ber how happy every­one was after Sad­dam was cap­tured? And remem­ber how it just kept get­ting worse and worse?
But it is also sig­nif­i­cant that Maliki says he will announce his new Defense, National Secu­rity and Inte­rior min­is­ter later today. (He declined to give their names at the press con­fer­ence on Zar­qawai, say­ing that would wait until the par­lia­men­tary meet­ing in the after­noon.) This indi­cates to me that the Defense and Inte­rior slots have been being held open as a car­rot for Sun­nis to start bring­ing their fight­ers to heel. Now that the Sun­nis have deliv­ered a big prize in Zarqawi’s alleged corpse, it’s time to reward them with a big post. Will they get both Inte­rior and Defense? No. In fact, Reuters is already report­ing that Inte­rior will go to Shi’ite Jawaad al-​Bolani, for­merly of the Fad­hilla Party, and Defense will go to Sunni Gen. Abdel Qader Jas­sim.
Al-​Bolani is an inter­est­ing choice, because he is report­edly a for­mer Army colonel under Sad­dam and has been affil­i­ated with numer­ous fac­tions in Shi’a pol­i­tics, includ­ing Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Con­gress and Sheikh Karim Al-​Mohammadawi, the “Prince of the Marshes,” a local Shi’ite boss in the south opposed to Iran, Cha­l­abi and some­times — but unre­li­ably — allied with Moq­tada al-​Sadr. Moham­madawi is reli­ably in favor of Moham­madawi. Jas­sim, a Sunni, is cur­rently the com­man­der of the Iraqi ground forces and has worked closely with the Amer­i­cans. He also was the gen­eral who advised Sad­dam to with­draw from Kuwait in 1991, fur­ther endear­ing him to Wash­ing­ton.
Both choices seem likely to be approved, or at least not opposed, will be sup­ported by the Sun­nis, as nei­ther is closely tied to Iran. (The for­mer Inte­rior Min­is­ter, Bayan Jabr, was tied with the Badr Orga­ni­za­tion _​neé_​Corps, which is still closely con­nected with the Iran­ian Rev­o­lu­tion­ary Guards.)
[ADD 2:18:08 PM +0200 GMT: Going back through some old notes, I found a brief inter­view I did with al-​Bolani in Jan­u­ary 2005, before the first elec­tions, when he was pres­i­dent of the Shi’a Polit­i­cal Coun­cil, a rival group to the United Iraqi Alliance. At the time, he said he didn’t think the con­sti­tu­tion will be based on Islamic _shari’a_, even though Islamic par­ties are call­ing for this. “Democ­racy is a strange idea in Iraq, but democ­racy is a demand of every­one,” he said. “I can assure you there are many Islamic polit­i­cal move­ments that don’t want gov­ern­ment like Iran’s. But this Islamic iden­tity and the Islamic tra­di­tions can­not be removed from this coun­try. … So I think the Iran­ian sys­tem will never hap­pen in Iraq, and most Islamic move­ments agree wth me on that.” That will please the Sun­nis and the Amer­i­cans.]
So now we’ll have to wait and see what hap­pens in the com­ing days and weeks. There will no doubt be a flare of vio­lence thaht could last up to a week or so, but after that, If the level of vio­lence starts to decrease, then that means the Sun­nis are play­ing ball. Now it is time for the Shi’ites to curb their mili­tias; that’s the deal. If that doesn’t hap­pen, expect the Sun­nis to let their fight­ers loose again.
[UPDATE 5:49:39 PM +0200 GMT: DefenseTech has “a good roundup”:http://www.defensetech.org/archives/002483.html of news on Zar­qawi, includ­ing links to the “video of the bomb­ing run”:http://www.mnf-iraq.com/zarqawi/video/Zaqarwi_Clip.wmv.]
[UPDATE 6:18:34 PM +0200 GMT:The story I did for TIME Mag­a­zine is “here”:http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1201993,00.html.]
[UPDATE 7:05:36 PM +0200 GMT: Right on sched­ule. Sev­eral sui­cide car bombs have gone off in Bagh­dad killing an unknown num­ber of civilians.]