Mukhabarat Agent: No WMDs here!

The _Jerusalem Post_ has an inter­est­ing inter­view with a for­mer colonel in Saddam’s secret police, the _Mukhabarat_, who says Iraq had no WMDs in the run-up to war.

Con­cern that Sad­dam had actively con­cealed deadly weapons of mass destruc­tion served as one of pri­mary rea­sons’ for the Coali­tion forces’ inva­sion of Iraq in March.
“In 1991 we were very close to devel­op­ing a nuclear weapon, but had noth­ing at the time of the [March 2003] war, after so many years of [UNSCOM] inspec­tions,” said the agent, adding, “they destroyed everything.”

It will come as lit­tle sur­prise to peo­ple who read this blog and oth­ers, but this is just one more lit­tle stone added to the moun­tain of evi­dence that the White House lied about/misused/screwed up what­ever intel­li­gence it was get­ting about WMD pro­grams in Iraq.
But, and this fits in with every­thing I encoun­tered in Iraq and from my own research and read­ings, Sad­dam was also fooled — by “mani­a­cally syco­phan­tic com­man­ders and body­guards who deceived him into believ­ing that Iraq” stood a chance again the United States’ mil­i­tary.
I also believe Sad­dam felt he could bluff the West by claim­ing to have no WMDs, which is what every­one thought he would say, while act­ing like he did. By behav­ing like he had a royal flush when all he had was a measly pair of sixes, he could buck up his stand­ing in the Arab world as the only leader to stand up to the United States, main­tain his grip on his sub­jects who well remem­bered the gas attacks on the Kur­dish north from 1984 – 1988 and keep his hold on power. But Amer­ica called his bluff and now the world is what it is. I imag­ine the White House is feel­ing a bit like it won a huge pot of Monop­oly money.
Two lead­ers lying, for their own pur­poses rather than for the good of their peo­ple. And such a mess of it all now. Today, Juan Cole reports, “three U.S. sol­diers have been wounded in Kirkuk and Mosul”:http://www.juancole.com/2003_12_01_juancole_archive.html#107173487313180742; pro-Saddam demon­stra­tions con­tinue in Mosul, where police shot four stu­dents and pro­test­ers attacked Turk­men offices in the city; road­side bombs were exploded in Humairah and Bagh­dad; a senior mem­ber of the “Supreme Coun­cil for Islamic Revolution”:http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000451.php#000451 from the al-Hakim fam­ily has been killed; and a for­mer Ba’ath offi­cial was lit­er­ally torn limb from limb by a mob in Najaf.

Now She Tells Us

Well, this kind of explains a lot, no? In an upcom­ing inter­view with _Reader’s Digest_, National Secu­rity Advi­sor “Con­doleezza Rice”:http://www.warstories.cc/person/?personId=17 admits that, “There’s noth­ing I am worse at than long-term plan­ning. I have never run my life that way. I believe that _serendipity or fate or divine intervention_ has led me to a series of wholly implau­si­ble steps in my life. And I’ve been open to those twists and turns because I didn’t have a long-term plan.” (Empha­sis added.)
Oy. And this woman is in charge of the United States’ Iraq pol­icy? Granted, the ques­tion was about her run­ning for office some day, but as we’ve seen, traits in one’s per­sonal life often have a way of man­i­fest­ing them­selves in one’s pro­fes­sional life.
Oh, and don’t miss a great _Washington Monthly_ piece by “Joshua Micah Marshall”:http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com, Laura Rozen, and Colin Soloway on the “ide­o­logues in Baghdad”:http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2003/0312.whoswho.html run­ning the Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity. To wit:

When the his­tory of the occu­pa­tion of Iraq is writ­ten, there will be many fac­tors to point to when explain­ing the post-conquest descent into chaos and dis­or­der, from the melt­ing away of Saddam’s army to the Pentagon’s fail­ure to make ade­quate plans for the occu­pa­tion. But his­to­ri­ans will also con­sider the lack of expe­ri­ence and abun­dant polit­i­cal con­nec­tions of the hun­dreds of Amer­i­can bureau­crats sent to Bagh­dad to run Iraq through the Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity.

In their place, the archi­tects of the war chose card-carrying Repub­li­cans — oper­a­tives, flacks, policy-wonks and lob­by­ists — for almost every key assign­ment in the coun­try. Some mar­quee exam­ples include U.S. civil admin­is­tra­tor Paul Bremer’s senior advi­sor and liai­son to Capi­tol Hill, Tom Korol­o­gos, one of the most pow­er­ful GOP lob­by­ists on Capi­tol Hill. Then there’s the man in charge of pri­va­tiz­ing Iraq’s 200-odd state owned com­pa­nies, Tom Foley, a ven­ture cap­i­tal­ist and high-flying GOP fundraiser. Foley was one of the Bob Dole’s top-ten career donors, Con­necti­cut finance chair for Bush 2000 and a class­mate of the president’s from Har­vard Busi­ness School.

CPA offi­cials say that the older GOP func­tionar­ies do a rea­son­able job keep­ing their par­ti­san­ship pub­licly under wraps. But the younger Repub­li­cans in Iraq spend much of their time plot­ting against the Democ­rats. “Every­thing is seen in the con­text of the elec­tion, and how they will screw the Democ­rats,” said one CPA offi­cial. “It was really pretty shock­ing to hear them talk.“
“They are all on the cam­paign trail,” said another offi­cial. “They see this as a step­ping stone to a bet­ter job in the next Bush administration.”

And on a per­sonal note, I found out today that my best friend, a lieu­tenant in the Army Reserve, has been mobi­lized. He has a wife and two small chil­dren to leave behind. When he signed up a few years ago, he said he wanted to serve his coun­try. I have tried to con­vince him that there’s no dis­honor in dis­obey­ing orders and flee­ing an unjust war waged by an unelected commander-in-chief. To his credit, while he has been as crit­i­cal of this war as I have, he still says he has to serve out his com­mit­ment. (He’s a life­long Demo­c­rat, by the way.) I wish he would recon­sider, con­sider a flight to a neu­tral coun­try, but I know he won’t. He has a sense of honor and duty that should shame his “com­man­der in chief”:http://www.warstories.cc/person/?personId=1, who went AWOL in Viet­nam after he got air­lifted by his father’s influ­ence into a cushy Texas Air National Guard spot.
I admire my friend a lot for his sense of patri­o­tism and duty, even though he knows he will be miss­ing 18 months of his daugh­ters’ lives, even though he believes Iraq is a colos­sal screw-up and a mis­take of mam­moth pro­por­tions. He would never say a dis­re­spect­ful thing about George Bush while mobi­lized, but I can: To hell with Bush and to hell with this war.
Any­way, this has made it all the more imper­a­tive that I go back and, as I joke with him, make sure noth­ing hap­pens to him.

Is Syria Next?

There’s been a lot of spec­u­la­tion that Iraq was just the first in a line of net­tle­some prob­lems in the Mid­dle East that neo-cons wanted to “solve.” Israeli Prime Min­is­ter Ariel Sharon said in an inter­view almost a year ago that Iran should be the next tar­get. How­ever, it seems Wash­ing­ton has decided to step up its cam­paign against Syria.
I44038-2003Oct17L.jpg
U.S.-led coali­tion troops treat wounded sol­diers after an attack on a Humvee on the main road about 50 miles south of Bagh­dad. The extent of the sol­diers’ wounds was unclear. (Greg Baker — AP) Click to enlarge
Last week­end, “to cau­tion Israel’s ene­mies at a time of height­ened ten­sions in the region and con­cern over Iran’s alleged ambi­tions,” Wash­ing­ton revealed that Israel now has land-, air– and submarine-based nuclear launch capa­bil­ity. This came just days after Turk­ish law­mak­ers voted to send up to 10,000 troops to Iraq. With the Turks now a dues-paying mem­ber of the “Coali­tion of Will­ing,” this means Syria is effec­tively sur­rounded. Remem­ber that the major fight­ing in Iraq ended with Syr­ian and Amer­i­can forces skir­mish­ing on the bor­der, and now Dam­as­cus is pressed on the north and south by the for­merly neu­tral Turkey and its old enemy Israel. The pres­sure is on Syr­ian Pres­i­dent Bashar al-Asad to cease sup­port for groups such as Hizbal­lah and other groups oper­at­ing out of Dam­as­cus. Asad is fac­ing a dan­ger­ous gam­ble: Is the United States bluff­ing in its deploy­ment of its and its allies’ forces around Syria in an attempt to force behav­ior change? Will a regime change fol­low if Syria’s behav­ior doesn’t alter?
Adding fur­ther to pres­sure is the Syria Account­abil­ity and Lebanese Sov­er­eignty Restora­tion Act of 2003 (HR 1828). It passed the House this week, and par­tic­u­lar note should be paid to Sec­tion 4 — State­ment of Prin­ci­ples:

  1. Syria will be held respon­si­ble for attacks com­mit­ted by Hizbal­lah and other ter­ror­ist groups with offices, train­ing camps, or other facil­i­ties in Syria, or bases in areas of Lebanon occu­pied by Syria;
  2. the United States shall impede Syria’s abil­ity to sup­port acts of inter­na­tional ter­ror­ism and efforts to develop or acquire weapons of mass destruction;
  3. the Sec­re­tary of State will con­tinue to list Syria as a state spon­sor of ter­ror­ism until Syria ends its sup­port for ter­ror­ism, includ­ing its sup­port of Hizbal­lah and other ter­ror­ist groups in Lebanon and its host­ing of ter­ror­ist groups in Dam­as­cus, and comes into full com­pli­ance with United States law relat­ing to ter­ror­ism and United Nations Secu­rity Coun­cil Res­o­lu­tion 1373 (Sep­tem­ber 282001);
  4. efforts against Hizbal­lah will be expanded given the recog­ni­tion that Hizbal­lah is equally or more capa­ble than al Qa’ida;
  5. the full restora­tion of Lebanon’s sov­er­eignty, polit­i­cal inde­pen­dence, and ter­ri­to­r­ial integrity is in the national secu­rity inter­est of the United States;
  6. Syria is in vio­la­tion of United Nations Secu­rity Coun­cil Res­o­lu­tion 520 (Sep­tem­ber 17, 1982) through its con­tin­ued occu­pa­tion of Lebanese ter­ri­tory and its encroach­ment upon Lebanon’s polit­i­cal independence;
  7. Syria’s oblig­a­tion to with­draw from Lebanon is not con­di­tioned upon progress in the Israeli-Syrian or Israeli-Lebanese peace process but derives from Syria’s oblig­a­tion under Secu­rity Coun­cil Res­o­lu­tion 520;
  8. Syria’s acqui­si­tion of weapons of mass destruc­tion and bal­lis­tic mis­sile pro­grams threaten the secu­rity of the Mid­dle East and the national secu­rity inter­ests of the United States;
  9. Syria will be held account­able for any harm to Coali­tion armed forces or to any United States cit­i­zen in Iraq due to its facil­i­ta­tion of ter­ror­ist activ­i­ties and its ship­ments of mil­i­tary sup­plies to Iraq; and
  10. the United States will not pro­vide any assis­tance to Syria and will oppose mul­ti­lat­eral assis­tance for Syria until Syria ends all sup­port for ter­ror­ism, with­draws its armed forces from Lebanon, and halts the devel­op­ment and deploy­ment of weapons of mass destruc­tion and medium– and long-range surface-to-surface bal­lis­tic missiles.

Note that many of these prin­ci­ples are almost iden­ti­cal to those expressed against Iraq, par­tic­u­larly the vio­la­tion of United Nations Secu­rity Coun­cil res­o­lu­tions, the weapons of mass destruc­tion and its ties to ter­ror­ism — in this case Hizbal­lah, which has been pro­moted to Al Qa’ida rank in evil. Even the “axis of evil” rhetoric has been heated up, as this state­ment from the office of House Major­ity Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, illus­trates:

Syria is a gov­ern­ment at war with the val­ues of the civ­i­lized world and a vio­lent threat to free nations and free men every­where. We’ll send a clear mes­sage to Pres­i­dent Asad and his fel­low trav­el­ers along the axis of evil: The United States will not tol­er­ate ter­ror­ism, its per­pe­tra­tors, or its spon­sors. And our warn­ings are not to be ignored. (Empha­sis added — Ed.)

Strat​for​.com notes that the cap­ture of Bagh­dad shocked the Arab world, and the United States seized the psy­cho­log­i­cal ini­tia­tive with the city’s fall. The United States went from being per­ceived as a hated but impo­tent power to a hated but feared one. Since the fall of Bagh­dad, how­ever, the per­cep­tion that the United States is bogged down by gueril­las has taken hold and much of the ini­tia­tive has been lost. The pas­sage of HR 1828 and the coa­lesc­ing of a regional coali­tion against Syria is required if the United States’ is to regain its foot­ing and momen­tum. If pres­sure by Wash­ing­ton works, then Syria will reduce sup­port to ter­ror groups tar­get­ing Israel and halt the flow of fight­ers into Iraq. If it doesn’t, the United States will need to deal with Syria by force.
Related link: Why Iraq?

Security Report

Well, this is pretty bleak. Iraq Today, Baghdad’s inde­pen­dent, English-language news­pa­per, pub­lishes a Secu­rity Bul­letin that doesn’t paint an encour­ag­ing pic­ture:

CMCC [Civil-Military Coor­di­na­tion Cen­ter] cites Adhamiyah, Rusafa, Thowra, al-Muthanna, Shaab, Hur­riyah, Shuahla and the area around Sad­dam Inter­na­tional air­port as uncer­tain or hos­tile areas.
Car­jack­ing is rife in the cap­i­tal. Do not walk around the streets with bags or mobile/satellite phones.
The cur­few in Bagh­dad begins at 11pm and ends at 4am.
Iraq’s high­ways are con­sid­ered dan­ger­ous. High­way 10 between Bagh­dad and the Jor­dan­ian bor­der is espe­cially haz­ardous, par­tic­u­larly around the Ramadi area. Armed ban­dits oper­ate this route, using fast cars to stop large con­voys of vehi­cles. High­way 8, between Bagh­dad and Hillah is also con­sid­ered a no go route by human­i­tar­ian organ­i­sa­tions. High­way 1, between Bagh­dad and Qasim is also very dan­ger­ous.
Police are present on the streets of the cap­i­tal but they are Out-gunned and outnumbered.

Jeeze. Good to know. Espe­cially about High­way 10. I took that high­way when I left Bagh­dad in late April, but didn’t have any prob­lems. We ran it dur­ing the day, and there were a num­ber of places where earthen embank­ments had been set up forc­ing the taxi to fol­low a tight “S” path ver­rrrrrry slowly — in other words, it would have been great for an ambush. Luck­ily, noth­ing hap­pened. When J., my friend who left a week or so before me, took that route, how­ever, he men­tioned that his dri­ver stopped to chat with a man on the side of the road wear­ing a black face mask and car­ry­ing an AK-47. Nice.

Meanwhile, back in Iraq…

While much deserved atten­tion is paid to bat­tle for the truth against the Bush administration’s many chang­ing ratio­nales for war, the bat­tle for Iraq is still ongo­ing. _Newsday_ has a chill­ing inter­view with a man known as Khaled, who claims to be a com­man­der of the _Saddam Fedayeen_, and says the resis­tance is orga­nized, grow­ing and ruth­less.
“We have many more peo­ple and we’re a lot bet­ter orga­nized than the Amer­i­cans real­ize,” said Khaled, 29, who gave an hour-long inter­view to _Newsday_ on Wednes­day on the con­di­tion that only his first name be pub­lished. “We have been prepar­ing for this kind of guer­rilla war for a long time, and we’re much more patient than the Amer­i­cans. We have nowhere else to go.“

Khaled described the work­ings of a loosely orga­nized net­work of for­mer Baath Party mem­bers, Iraqi sol­diers, intel­li­gence offi­cers and other die-hard Hus­sein sup­port­ers who have been respon­si­ble for an unknown num­ber of the attacks that have killed 29 U.S. sol­diers and injured dozens since May 1.
He said the net­work oper­ates in cells of five or six mem­bers that answer to a secret lead­er­ship struc­ture. It goes by var­i­ous names  —  the Feday­een, the Iraq Lib­er­a­tion Army, Muhammad’s Army  —  and Khaled said only a hand­ful of peo­ple know its full reach. He said its mem­bers draw inspi­ra­tion from Hus­sein and from the belief that the ousted Iraqi leader is alive and will regain power once U.S. troops are forced to leave.

What has the United States marched its troops into? A quag­mire? An abat­toir?
I respect­fully dis­agree with other sites that the U.S. should bring the troops home by Christ­mas. While I resent that the men and women I met while in the war were lied to and put in harm’s way for a myr­iad of shift­ing ratio­nales, the fact of the mat­ter is that Iraq is a mess. Pulling out the troops now would make it even worse, if you can believe that.
Iraq is a dan­ger­ous place, full of dan­ger­ous men. Saddam’s regime ter­ror­ized his peo­ple leav­ing resent­ments, fury and the urge for revenge. If the U.S. pulled out before the coun­try was sta­bi­lized, there would be a civil war that might spill over into Turkey, Iran and Saudi Ara­bia. The Kurds would be mas­sa­cred as Turkey and Iran move in to pro­tect their inter­ests. The Per­sian Gulf would be impass­able. Energy infra­struc­ture from Basra to Baku in Azer­bai­jan would be destroyed, slower or oth­er­wise impaired. The world’s econ­omy would grind to a halt. And the real dan­ger to the West, al Qa’ida, would be able to oper­ate much more freely.
That’s not to say there aren’t any alter­na­tives, but none of them are very good. Turn­ing Iraq over to a U.N. trust to be admin­is­tered and policed by the body is a pop­u­lar one. That’s a tough call, how­ever. Iraq would be the biggest project of this kind ever under­taken by the United Nations, and its track record is mixed. Any real­is­tic U.N.-sanctioned force needed to estab­lish secu­rity would have to include a siz­able por­tion of Amer­i­cans — if only for logis­ti­cal pur­poses — who would be even less wel­come in Bagh­dad a sec­ond time around. Avoid­ing addi­tional ill will would prob­a­bly require plac­ing Amer­i­can troops under an Islamic com­mand, pos­si­bly Turk­ish or Pak­istani. Can any­one really imag­ine any pres­i­dent, Repub­li­can or Demo­c­rat, doing that?
Many, many opposed this war — I did. I thought it was a mis­take of colos­sal mag­ni­tude — still do. U.S. troops face 10 to 25 attacks _a day,_ and, as Khaled implied, it will get likely worse. The choices avail­able are all bad. Sim­ply put, *the Amer­i­cans can’t stay, but nei­ther can they leave.* What they call “lib­er­a­tion,” _tahrir_ in Ara­bic, too many Iraqis are call­ing _ihtilal,_ — “occu­pa­tion,” with the over­tones of the Chris­t­ian Cru­sades, the Mon­gol sack­ing of Bagh­dad in the 13th cen­tury, the divvy­ing up of the region between Britain and France after World War I and the Israeli pres­ence in Lebanon and the occu­pied ter­ri­to­ries. As Salon​.com writer Nir Rosen says:

The most com­mon refrain one hears from Iraqis these days is: “They came as lib­er­a­tors and now they are occu­piers.” The sig­nif­i­cance of the lib­er­a­tion vs. occu­pa­tion debate can get lost in trans­la­tion here, but its immense polit­i­cal impli­ca­tions were evi­dent in a June 2 meet­ing, hosted by the Coali­tion Pro­vi­sional Author­ity, for nearly 300 tribal lead­ers of all reli­gions and eth­nic groups. Hume Horan, a polit­i­cal advi­sor to Bre­mer, also was present. Horan, a for­mer ambas­sador to Saudi Ara­bia and flu­ent Ara­bic speaker, addressed the audi­ence in Ara­bic about the coalition’s efforts and its need for Iraqi sup­port.
After Horan fin­ished speak­ing, Sheik Munther Abood from Amarra thanked Pres­i­dent Bush for remov­ing the Baath regime of Sad­dam Hus­sein and stated that he had seen the mass graves full of dead Shias in the south and was firmly opposed to Sad­dam. He then asked Horan if the coali­tion forces in Iraq were lib­er­a­tors or occu­piers. Horan responded that they were “some­where in between occu­pier and lib­er­a­tor.“
This was not well received by the audi­ence. Sheik Abood stated that if Amer­ica was a lib­er­a­tor, then the coali­tion forces were wel­come indef­i­nitely as guests, but that if they were occu­piers, then he and his descen­dants would “die resist­ing” them. This met with ener­getic applause from the audi­ence. Sev­eral other sheiks echoed the same sen­ti­ment. Then the meet­ing dete­ri­o­rated and a third of the audi­ence stood up and walked out, despite efforts by Horan and other orga­niz­ers to encour­age them to stay. At which point the meet­ing ended. It was not a pub­lic rela­tions success.

Is it any won­der peo­ple like Khaled find sup­port? “The guer­rilla must move amongst the peo­ple as a fish swims in the sea,” Mao once said. (He also said, “Weapons are an impor­tant fac­tor in war, but not the deci­sive fac­tor; it is peo­ple, not things, that are deci­sive.” Khaled and peo­ple like him are prov­ing Mao right.)
All Amer­i­cans should be aware of the ago­niz­ing posi­tion Team Bush has put them in. There are few good solu­tions to this that will a) ben­e­fit the Iraqi peo­ple and respect their dig­nity and sov­er­eignty, and b) keep the region sta­ble and secure while reduc­ing Amer­i­can casu­al­ties. The answers that do look viable — pump­ing mas­sive quan­ti­ties of aid and money aimed at rebuild­ing the country’s infra­struc­ture and deal­ing with Iraqis on their terms and not on the Americans’ — don’t seem to on the table in Wash­ing­ton and Bagh­dad. Per­haps it’s just not in this White House’s polit­i­cal DNA to deal with any­one except at gun­point. (“Polit­i­cal power grows out of the bar­rel of a gun.” — Mao, again.)
For­mer CENTCOM com­man­der Tommy Franks says the world is fac­ing a four-year pres­ence in Iraq. So, elect­ing a Demo­c­rat into the White House in 2004 won’t be a solu­tion. As I’ve argued above, the chaos and anar­chy that would result in a pre­ma­ture pull­out will force any pres­i­dent to main­tain a siz­able pres­ence in Iraq. (Amer­i­cans should still turn Bush and his cronies out on their col­lec­tive ass, though. The list of rea­sons to do so other than Iraq are ency­clo­pe­dic.)
The com­ments from Khaled, Franks, Horan and Sheik Abood remind me of the apoc­ryphal story told of the encounter between an Amer­i­can colonel and his North Viet­namese coun­ter­part at the Paris Peace Con­fer­ence. “You know,” the Amer­i­can said, “you never defeated us on the bat­tle­field.” His coun­ter­part responded: “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”