I have competition!

Not that I par­tic­u­larly rel­ish com­pe­ti­tion, see­ing as I’m a nat­ural monop­o­list at heart, but it seems there’s a site called IraqJour​nal​.org that has a lot of report­ing from Bagh­dad coor­di­nated by Jeremy Scahill.
I point to this site in a spirit of “we’re all jour­nal­ists, check it out!” but I gotta be hon­est. I think Mr. Scahill and his team are pretty biased. First of all, they’re based in Bagh­dad, which means they’re there with the per­mis­sion of Saddam’s regime. It’s unlikely they’re going to report on things that make the Iraqis look bad. Sec­ondly, his bio has a cou­ple of telling quotes (empha­sis added):

  • He pri­mar­ily cov­ers inter­na­tional sto­ries, focus­ing on the ugly face of US for­eign policy.”
  • He spent more than a month in Iraq (May-June 2002) where he reported on the ongo­ing suf­fer­ing there caused by the US-led sanc­tions and con­tin­u­ous bombing.”

Now, I don’t want to take away from Mr. Scahill’s accom­plish­ments. As his bio says, he’s the youngest per­son to ever win the George Polk Award for For­eign Report­ing, (He’s 28). And liv­ing in Iraq as a West­erner is hard.
But the cov­er­age is over­whelm­ingly sym­pa­thetic to Sad­dam. Two sto­ries on the prison amnesty fairly brim with admi­ra­tion. The impli­ca­tion is, “See? He’s not so bad!” Reports that polit­i­cal pris­on­ers and those accused of spy­ing for Israel and the United States were not released or — worse — “dis­ap­peared,” are breezily dis­missed. He trashes John Burns’ (NY Times) account of many pris­on­ers thank­ing Bush for their lib­erty by say­ing:

Many pris­on­ers thanked Bush? Is he kid­ding? “Many” implies that thou­sands must have been rush­ing up to Burns (on the day of their “lib­er­a­tion” back into “Saddam’s Iraq”) to make sure that The Times relayed their mes­sage back to the Oval Office (which is cur­rently threat­en­ing to destroy Iraq). Even if Burns had man­aged to hunt down that hand­ful of Iraqis who do have affec­tion for the US pres­i­dent, none of them would have been stu­pid enough on that day, when they had just hit “free­dom,” to come out swing­ing at Sad­dam and prais­ing Bush to an Amer­i­can reporter. And “many” is a flat-out fairytale.

Now, I have no idea if “many” or “a few” or “every god­damned one of ‘em!” thanked Bush for their free­dom, but it’s clear from Scahill’s word­ing that he doesn’t either. There are no quotes from recently released pris­on­ers back­ing up his claims and his reportage is pep­pered with “would have“s and “could have“s. In short, he’s assum­ing.
In another story, run­ning under the head­line “Bush Cor­leone,” Scahill makes the claim that “These days most UN offi­cials here, while derid­ing the infa­mous Iraqi bureau­cracy, speak of deep col­lab­o­ra­tion with the gov­ern­ment in attempt­ing to deal with the dev­as­tat­ing impact of the US-led sanc­tions.“
That?s sim­ply not true. When I was in Iraqi Kur­dis­tan, Mike Parker of the Mine Advi­sory Group, which helps locate and cleanse the mas­sive mine­fields laid dur­ing the 1980 – 88 Iran-Iraq War, told me that 12 expa­tri­ates and UN work­ers had been killed in the four years he had been work­ing in Suleimanya. They were killed by car bombs, snipers and other may­hem. He also trav­eled with an armed escort and after I met him for din­ner, refused to let me return to my hotel with­out my own armed escort. Mike isn?t with the United Nations, but for­eign­ers there are only safe when they coop­er­ate with Sad­dam, and that includes talk­ing to the press — espe­cially in Bagh­dad.
OK. So per­haps I’m being hard on Scahill and his team. After all, they’re on the ground doing work and I’m still in New York. But is it really so hard to say, as one of my friends did recently, “Sad­dam is a bad guy and a mon­strous tyrant, but now is not the time to go after him.” Why are some peo­ple on the left unable to take this at least intel­lec­tu­ally hon­est approach? Because it would mean the United States has a point?
So here?s my bot­tom line: I des­per­ately want to be in Scahill’s posi­tion and I have a lot of respect for him that he’s man­aged to get him­self there and do report­ing. His site looks nice, too, and I guess I’ll link to it. But — and this is a big but — report­ing pro­pa­ganda, regard­less of where it comes from doesn’t serve the most impor­tant peo­ple jour­nal­ists should be think­ing about: their read­ers. Also: I oppose the seem­ingly inevitable war in Iraq not because I think Sad­dam is a swell chap or because I think every­thing the United States does is in quest of yummy oil. He?s not and not every­thing the U.S. does is evil. I oppose it because it’s geostrate­gi­cally dan­ger­ous, because it vio­lates many aspects of estab­lished inter­na­tional prac­tices and laws and it shows a shock­ingly short­sighted vision of for­eign pol­icy. From var­i­ous reports, it seems the United States will hang the Kurds out to dry, and that?s not fair. War with Iraq will also dis­tract us from the impor­tant task of con­tain­ing Al Qaeda and alien­ate our allies mak­ing every­thing the United States does harder. So, yes, I?m opposed to the war, but not at the expense of truth, the famous first casu­alty.
But if I was assured that the United States had the back­ing and bless­ing of the United Nations, that there was proof of Iraq?s evil machi­na­tions to inflict seri­ous and imme­di­ate harm and the Kurds were pro­tected by a solid com­mit­ment to democ­racy, then hell, I don?t think I could oppose tak­ing out Sad­dam.
At least I?m honest.

Turkey and Iraqi Kurds headed for confrontation

In an item from Ara​bic​News​.com, “Turk­ish offi­cials” tell the daily news­pa­per Bousta that there will be no Kur­dish state in north­ern Iraq.

In a tele­phone call with the Turk­ish daily Bousta, the Turk­ish offi­cials indi­cated in its Saturday’s issue that Wash­ing­ton gave guar­an­tees to Ankara that a (Kur­dish) state will not be estab­lished, stress­ing that it is impos­si­ble that the US will sac­ri­fice its good rela­tions with Turkey for the sake of found­ing an inde­pen­dent Kur­dish state in the after– Sad­dam phase.

This is almost assuredly true, since the United States needs Turkey a lot more than it needs the Kurds, and it’s been telling the Kuwaitis not to worry, that there will be no democ­racy in a post-Saddam Iraq.
And yet the Kurds, bless them, per­sist in mov­ing for­ward with their con­sti­tu­tion, a char­ter that is almost guar­an­teed to get them invaded by Turkey. A meet­ing of 35 Kur­dish par­ties, called for by the chair­man of the Kur­dis­tani Demo­c­ra­tic Social­ist Party, Muham­mad Haji Mah­moud, con­vened yes­ter­day in the town of Kuwis­in­jaq. While all Kur­dish par­ties, includ­ing the Islamist par­ties such as Islamic Move­ment and Islamic Union, are expected to attend, the Turkomen par­ties weren’t invited, an omi­nous omis­sion.
For not only will the Turks (and Syr­i­ans and Ira­ni­ans) look upon Kur­dish jostling for fed­er­al­ism in Iraq with alarm, Turkey could use the exclu­sion of the Turkomen as an excuse to inter­vene, espe­cially since Ankara has recently been refer­ring to Kirkuk, the pro­posed cap­i­tal of a Kur­dish entity in the north, as a “Turkomen” city. (Which isn’t true at all. The Kurds have a longer claim to it than the Turkomen.)
Ala Tal­a­bani, a spokesper­son for the PUK in Suleimanya, emailed me today and told me that the Kurds are doing every­thing they can to reas­sure Turkey. “Turkey, they are ner­vous, but par­ties here are doing theire best to make them under­stand that we are not look­ing for Inde­pen­dency; we will remain a part of Iraq,” she wrote. [Ed. I cleaned up her Eng­lish a lit­tle.] “Remem­ber that they have an elec­tion (com­ing up.) After that, their posi­tion will be clear.“
But what that posi­tion may be, no one knows. The rul­ing coali­tion of ail­ing Prime Min­is­ter Bulent Ece­vit will almost assuredly be removed come Nov. 3, and a party with roots in polit­i­cal Islam, Jus­tice and Devel­op­ment, is polling at 30 per­cent, far ahead of other par­ties. This means Turkey could be look­ing at a Prime Min­is­ter Abdul­lah Gul, a top Jus­tice and Devel­op­ment party leader. Remem­ber, in 1997 the Turk­ish mil­i­tary staged a “soft coup” to remove an Islamist rul­ing coali­tion when it strayed too far from the embrace of the West and chum­mied up with Iran and Libya.
I think a Jus­tice and Development-led gov­ern­ment would be even more hard­line on the ques­tion of the Kurds. Any civil­ian gov­ern­ment in Turkey must kow­tow to the mil­i­tary estab­lish­ment, which views both polit­i­cal Islam and Kur­dish sep­a­ratism with equal con­tempt. In order to pro­tect its posi­tion, Jus­tice and Devl­op­ment won’t do any­thing to piss off the gen­er­als in Ankara. Also, the Islamists, despite their rhetoric, are cool to the idea of the Euro­pean Union and its demands that Turkey tem­per its per­se­cu­tion of its eth­nic minori­ties. Since the EU snubbed Turkey in its lat­est round of talks, an Islamist-led Turkey would have lit­tle rea­son to accom­mo­date Europe — or the Kurds.
So the stage is set for chaos in north­ern Iraq, apres Sad­dam. And the only peo­ple who will be able to bring the par­ties to heel will be the United States. The ques­tion is, will it?

Debate on Iraq taking place in NYTimes Book Review section

Clive Thompson’s blog, col­li­sion detec­tion, has an inter­est­ing note about some­thing I missed in The New York Times recently, about the debate being waged through reviews of Ken­neth Pollack’s The Threat­en­ing Storm: The Case for Invad­ing Iraq.
Pol­lack is a for­mer CIA oper­a­tive and now works at the Coun­cil on For­eign Rela­tions. Whether you agree with Polllack’s ass­es­ment or not (he favors an inva­sion), his book is worth­while and deserves to be part of the debate.

Qatar coup a plot of the Saudis?

The recent report of the attempted Qatari coup plot that allegedly went down Oct. 12, and reported by Strat­for and Ara​bic​News​.com, may not be what it appears. The story hasn’t bro­ken here in the United States (or in most West­ern media it seems) lead­ing Strat­for to deduce that Wash­ing­ton has done a fair job of tamp­ing this story down.
But sources in the State Depart­ment say the whole thing is made up, a bit of dis­in­for­ma­tion on the part of the Saudis who are angry over the milder form of Wahab­bism prac­ticed in Qatar, Al Jazeera, which is based in there and, espe­cially, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khal­i­fah al-Thani’s rel­a­tively close ties with the United States. (It should also be noted that al-Thani deposed his father in 1996 in a blood­less coup and Riyadh helped the deposed monarch stage an unsuc­cess­ful counter-coup soon after.)
I don’t believe the State Depart­ment. How are Saudi inter­ests served by spread­ing rumors of an attempted coup? I’ve been try­ing to puz­zle out what pur­pose dis­in­for­ma­tion might serve, and damned if I can make sense of it. So that leads me to the sim­plest expla­na­tion. That there was a coup attempt, U.S. sol­diers may or may not have helped put it down and the United States is telling fibs to keep up appear­ances that it’s got the Gulf sit­u­a­tion under con­trol. I don’t believe Saudi Ara­bia was behind the coup, since the peo­ple arrested seem to be mil­i­tant Islamists and Riyadh wouldn’t do some­thing that might strengthen the hands of its own mil­i­tants.
Some­thing is fishy is Doha, but what it is we might never know.

U.S. to pay Russia $10 billion for Iraq backing

Care­ful read­ers will remem­ber that I said that Rus­sia was drag­ging its feet at the United Nations on America’s “kick Saddam’s ass” res­o­lu­tion because it was hop­ing for some guar­an­tee that the $8 bil­lion that Iraq owes Rus­sia would be paid. Well, here is the reas­sur­ance. In response to taken ques­tions, a State depart­ment spokesper­son said that Rus­sia could be com­pen­sated for more than $10 bil­lion if they stopped their nuclear coop­er­a­tion with Iran and allowed their coun­try to become a nuclear waste dump.

One exam­ple is the poten­tial trans­fer to Rus­sia for stor­age of spent reac­tor fuel cur­rently held by third coun­tries, much of which requires US approval for such trans­fer because the US orig­i­nally sup­plied the fresh fuel to those coun­tries. If the Rus­sians end their sen­si­tive coop­er­a­tion with Iran, we have indi­cated we would be pre­pared to favor­ably con­sider such trans­fers, an arrange­ment poten­tially worth over $10 bil­lion to Moscow.

This kind of deal will lead Rus­sia to ulti­mately sup­port the United States against Iraq.
Also, some other news that hasn’t been widely reported here in the States: an attempted coup in Qatar! Who knew about this? Any­one? Any­one? Seems that Amer­i­can troops helped put down a coup attempt against Sheikh Hamad Bin Khaleifah al-Thani on Oct. 12. High rank­ing Qatari army offi­cers were arrested and sus­pi­cion imme­di­ately fell on an Islamist orga­ni­za­tion and Pak­istani and Yem­ini army recruits with alleged ties to Al Qa’ida.
The is big. Rela­tions with Saudi Ara­bia have cooled since Sept. 11, 2001, and Al Udeid Air Base out­side of Doha is the best alter­na­tive. If Qatar were moved out of America’s camp, the United States would have to rely on Incir­lik in Turkey and Diego Gar­cia in the Indian Ocean to fly sor­ties against Iraqi tar­gets. And most of the air­craft in the south would have to be car­rier based, which would cut down on the num­ber and fre­quency of sor­ties. It wouldn’t make an Iraqi oper­a­tion impos­si­ble, but it would make it more dif­fi­cult, I’ll wager.
What’s most wor­ri­some, from a Pen­ta­gon war planner’s point of view, is the poten­tial loss of Qatar, the con­tin­ued refusal of Saudi Ara­bia to allow the use of its air bases and trou­bling Al Qa’ida attacks in Kuwait. None of these things is crip­pling indi­vid­u­ally, but in a worst-case sce­nario, America’s entire south­ern front in a Sec­ond Gulf War could crumble.